EASTERN EUROPE
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German Objectives Soviet agreement to lift the Berlinand enter Into four-power discussions on Germany does not represent any change In the Soviettoermany which will eventually rail under Soviet domination. It is still too early, however, to predict the sincerity of the Soviet desire to achieve an understanding with the West on Germany or the extent of the concessions the USSR would make In order to reach an agreement. Tbe lifting of the blockade has been accompaniedelaxation of Soviet pressure throughout the western periphery of the Soviet orbit and by an Intensification of the Soviet propaganda "peace" campaign. On the other hand, May Day Communist propaganda savagely attacked the western powers, recent Communisthave called for active preparation for militant action, and steps are still being taken toward the establishment of an East German state. Progress of the CFM alone, therefore, will demonstrate whether theas agreed to enter Into four-power discussions to sound out the western position and retrieve itself from the unfavorable situation created by the Berlin blockade;ow considersounder strategy toneutral" Germany in order to delay the finalof the West German state and give the USSR some voice in all Germany.
CFM Proposals Initial Soviet proposals at the forthcoming CFM will be designed to appeal strongly to an increasingly articulate German nationalism. After attempting toommitment on postponing the West German state, the USSR will probablyeneralfor all Germany basedeturn to four-power coopera -tion and the Yalta and Potsdam agreements. The Soviet terms
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will include tbe principal demands oi8 Warsaw communique whichstablishment of agovernment for allonclusioneace treaty and withdrawal of occupation troops within one year;ontrol over Ruhr production and distribution by the US, tbe USSR, the UK, and France. Depending primarily upon the intensity of the Soviet desire to obtain the withdrawal of US troops from Europe, the USSR may later In the negotiations seek a compromise" agreementompromise might involve the acceptanceederal government composed of the East and West German zonal organizations. The USSR would Insist, however, thatederation be establishedanner which, tn addition to not threatening Sovietand economic control in East Germany, would provide for sufficient Soviet influence in West Germany to offer reasonable prospects for subsequently establishing aGermany not wholly western-oriented and susceptible to eventual Soviet domination.
East German State Despite Soviet agreement to resume
discussions on Germany, the USSR is continuing Its preparations for establishing an East German state. The executive agencies of the East Germanhave long been In operatlon.and elections for the Peoples' Congress in mid-May willseudo-democraticbody capable of functioningarliament. In addition toignificant step toward the Soviet aim of eventual economic Integration of East Germany wtth Poland andthe recently announced East German-Polish trade agreement (which is aimed at9 trade between East Germany and Poland2 million or doubling the volume of goods exchanged by the two countriesS) is another move toward the formalization of an East German
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government. The trade agreement was negotiated by the East German authorities, thus reflecting the Soviet policy of continuing to grant more governmental authority to the East German economic administration, with the possible idea of eventually making the East Germanull member of the Council of Economic Mutual Assistance, These Soviet actions are designed to build up the status aad Importance of the local administrative agencies in thezone of Germany and can be used by the USSR bothever in negotiating with the western powers at the coming Council of Foreign Ministers andounter to theof aWest German state. In the event of an impasse in the CFM, the USSR will have the machinery necessary for the establishmentatellite regime In eastern Germany.
"Peace" Campaign Simultaneously with the lifting of the
Berlin blockade, and in an apparent effort to forestall further western consolidation, the Kremlin Is Intensifying Its "peace" campaign throughout the western periphery of the Soviet orbit. The Soviet bloc has againfeelers toward accommodation with the West; it bas at least tapered off its past intransigent attitude in numerous cases. Soviet bloc countries have recently made concerted attempts to expand trade with the West and seek western financial assistance in an effort to mitigate the unfavorable impact of western economic pressure. Hungarian officials havearkedly more friendly attitude toward the US Embassy in Hungary; Albania has granted diplomaticto Italy; the Greek guerrillas haveather broad peace offer ostensibly intended to lay the groundwork for future negotiation of the Greek problem (see; Soviet pressure on bran has apparently tapered off,and the USSR has renewed Its offer to discuss trade with that country: and Soviet
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pressure on Scandinavia has markedly decreased Lnwith that of tbe past few months. These developments may be designed to lull western suspicion at the forthcoming CFM meeting. The course of quadripartite discussions on Germany will determine whether the USSR Is merely waging another campaign In its "peacer whether the Kremlin Is laying the groundwork foremporary accommodation wtth the West.
May Day Slogans The savagery with which the US was attacked
fn Moscow's May Day orders would seem to belle Soviet sincerity in re-opening discussions on Germany and In making overtures on other fronts. May Day Dropaeanda. however, Is designed for home consumption and for guidance to Communist parties throughout the world. In this context, the May Day slogansogical development of the Kremlin's principal psychological weapon--the peace campaign. For the faithful, the US must still be branded as the leading capitalist nation dedicated to the overthrow of the Soviet Union, while the common peace-loving masses throughout the world are pictured as sharing the Soviet desire for peace. Thus, the slogan that "the friendship between the peoples of the USSR, the US, and the UK forms the best guaranteeasting peace" is directed primarily towardedge between these peace-loving masses and their war -monger log governments.
Original document.
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