- COPT. MOi FOR THERec: FOR REPORTS AND ESTIHATI
THE WORLD BREADGRAINUTLOOK
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CONFIDENTIAL
THE WORLDUTLOOK'
SUMMARY
crops of brcadgraln will9 than8 when thc worldillion metric tons, its best crop of wheat and rye since thc end of hostilities. Larger farm and off-farm stocks of bread-grain, however, were carried over onune
In exporting countries, particularly in the United States and thcere carried over onhis Increase ln stocks carried over Into thc marketing year9 and endingune
will wholly or in part offset the drop ln9 world production.
If Importers maintain their wheat and rye consumption onevel, at least as much brcadgrnin must be shippeds was marketedarge part of the bread grain enteringtrade will be marketed withoutto any price guarantee since only part of thexport availability of bread grain will be equitably distributed among importers within the price rangentccd by the International Wheatto which thc USSR and Argentina have not subscribed.
The USSR entersrade year with farm and ofl-farm stocks larger thanillion metric tons quota that theWheat Conference refused to grant. There is. also, thc prospectomewhat larger brcadgraln production9 than that of last year, which places the Soviet Unionosition prospectively better than at any time since the war. If Lhe Kremlin so
decrees, thc USSR can throw brcadgraln onto thc International market In excess ofillion metric tons quota denied by theWheat Conference.
An Increase In barter nnd other tradeamong non-dollar countries todollar shortage may be expected tointernational market manipulations. especially if the USSR Invades the international markets.
9 production of brcadgraln in the satellites may be not more and possibly less than last year. Carry-over stocks arelow except possibly In Yugoslavia and Albania.
As ofecreaseillion metric tons Is expected hi the brcadgralnof northern and western Europenorthwestverage off-farm supplies in this area at the beginning ofrade year were below normal.
Thc Middle East (Including northeast Africa) enteredrade year withillion tons of brcadgrain in off-farm storage nnd the prospectsroduction as large as thato change in theand import requirements in other African countries Is expected.
In the Indian Subcontinent and the deficit countries of the Far East, carry-over stocks are low and9 production of bread grain is expected to be less than that
Australia with an export quotametric tons mayillion tons of
The statements contained la this report are based largelyore extensive surrey of the World Dreadgraln EitoaUon lnorking Paper No.n file in the CIA library and available lo appropriate torernment officials who may be concerned with such
Note: The mUUbjenee organ Ira Uoxu of the Department* of State, Army. Navy.tbe Air finer have concurred in this report- It is based on InfonnaUon available to CIA as ot IS
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nless unfavorable weather conditions develop before the harvest next falL
Argentlna entersradeith abnormally low stocks oftons. Acreage and production areto continue at thc low level.
roduction among other South American countries and In thearea may be expected to be about the same as last year with about the same import requirements.
9 Canadian wheat cropillion metric tons below the good harvestowever, at the expense of end-of-year stocks, Canada can fulfillnlllion ton export
quota granted by the International Wheat Agreement.
The United Statesotential export supply ofillion metric tons. The export quota under the wheat agreementillion metric tons.illion tons as probable shipments to2 million metric tons of foreseen shipments. Tillsotentialmetric tons available for stabilizing the non-guaranteed markets in case of any
ecline In production, the United States is stallufficiently strong position to meet thc demands of the bread grainof the world, within the framework of abilities of importers to pay.
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THE WORLD BREADGRAINUTLOOK
readgrain Situation. a. The Importers.
I/no at Beginning of
Early in the summert appeared that for thc first time since the war there would be as much breadgrain for export as world markets would take within theof abilities to pay. Surreys ofof Uie majority of importing countries, takuig'into consideration abilities to pay,that the import markets of the world would take during the8 throughombined total8 million metric tons of breadgrain' compared2 million metric tons' reported to hare been shipped to these same markets during thc7 through
(I) Turnover
Shipments ofillion metric tons of breadgrain by exportersdded to the combined indigenous production of the importing countries concerned, estimatedillion metric tons,ombined gross supply'illiontons, which was practically equal to thc average prewar gross supplyillion metric tons available to these same importers during.
In the Interim between the prewar period, population had Increased roughly
'The esUmated quantity or grain that worldwould lakea the combined totalff allocation* of breadgrain made by the Cereal Committee of the International Emergency Food Committee of the Dolled KaUona after formal hearings ofenta presented by each country concerned. Theseloded Finland and eaecJioslgrasla but not Spain.
, "The total quanuty of recorded shipmentsillion metric tons. The figure jfcU million tons does not Include OA million tons of breadgrain shipped to Albania, Bulgaria, Poland, and the Soviet Zone of Germany during
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ercent so that per capita gross supplyas appreciably less than .the average per capita supplynd was Insufficient to meet normal requirements.
Because of the drain placed on farm and oil-farm stocks of breadgrain in attempts to cover consumption and other requirements, most of the'importingof the world entered the trade^ith customary turnover suppliesinimum.
urnover Supplies Still Below Normal at End
he Importing countries producedombined total8 million metric tons. Import requirement, estimated8 million tons.ombined gross supply for all utilizationillion tons.
This improvedercent greater than that of the previous year) enabled most of thc peoples of the world to eat more bread of better quality than at any other time since thc outbreak of thc war. Not only did peoples In certain countries eat better, hut In several countries customary turnover supplies have been built up to nearly normalew fortunate countries with better indigenous production than others carried over intoarketing year some reserve slocks.
ecause no allocations were made to these areas.
'The estimated productionI million metric tons does not Include the production of Bulgaria, Poland. Rumania, and the Soviet Zone of Germany, which were normally exporters but which because of poor Indigenous production were forced lo import. Also, the Insignificant production of Albania does not come Into consideration.
' The termupply of breadgrain Implies stocks on farms for seed, allowances for wasteeed foe livestock, alsoutilization, human consumption as well as off-farm tarnover supplies and other carry-over stocks.
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is not possible to estimate with anyof exactnessalance between supply and utilization among the Importers,hole, but it is highly probable that on the average throughout the world, cnd-of-lhe year1 off-farm supplies in importing countries were below normal.
b. The Exporters.
As stated above, the InternationalFood Committee estimatedffective demand for brcadgralnetric tons of6 million tons were prorated on the basis of estimated export availabilities among tlic United States,and Australia for orderly marketingajority of importers throughout the world. It was assumed that Argentina and the USSU would beosition to shipillion tons respectively andew small exporters might possiblynilllon tons more or less.
The three major exporters under theof the International Emergency Food Committee,mall margin more or less, fulfilled their export quotas byrgentinaillion metric tons of brcadgralnhile the USSR is estimated to haveillion tons. The small exporters had alreadyexpectancy by the end of the. As ofombined shipments by exporters are estimated at0 million metric tons.
e. Allocation of Breadgrain Abandoned. During the tradend part, the orderly adjustment of export availabilities to Import requirements waslargely through the operations of the Cereals Committee of the InternationalFood Committee of the United Nations.
Because of thcupply, prices of wheat and rye on the markets of the world declined. Also, because of the large supply ln sight, the allocation of breadgrain towas abandoned as of the end of March
'The end ofntertiiitlonal trade year Ishe end of the consumpUon year, normallyuly ln Europe, may vary aomcwhat among the various Importing countries.
he Cereals Committee was dissolved in
Although tlic Cereals Committee will no longer Influence orderly marketing between consignor and consignee, the breadgrain markets of an importantof importers will In part be stabilized by thc operations of the International Wheat Council under the provisions of theWheat Agreement.
d. The International Wheat Agreement. The International Wheat Agreementthat within the range of agreed upon celling and floorubstantial number of Importers willinimumillion tons of wheat annually from Canada, the United Stales, Australia, France, and Uruguayerm of four years
Thc export quota of the United States7 million metric8 millionwhich importers agree to take at not moreelling price4 nor less1 per0er bushel).'
After the agreed quota has been met, an importer can buy additional wheat anywhere at any negotiated price. Non-signers of the agreement can buy at any time at anyprice-Orderly marketing under the agreement will be supervised by the International Wheat Council made up of delegates, one for each ratifying country.
Argentina refused to enter the agreement on grounds of price and thc USSR dropped out before final discussions when unable to get an annual export quota ofillion metric tons of wheat.
'Other quotas are: sal null ion Urns lo1 million tons lo0 million tons to Prance9 million tons to Uruguay. Inthc United 8Ule> may shipillion tons to the occupied countries resulting In foreseenshipmentsillion metric tons.
' Ceiling prices remain throughout the period at JiftO per bushel for Canadian wheat at Fortor at Port Arthur, which ls equivalent to abouter bushel at Gulf Ports, similar floor prices diminish at the rate ofents per year0 per bushel
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country, within the framework ofavailabilities can enter the market at any time to take advantage of ceiling prices or to force prices to the floor.
nguaranteed Markets.
Foreseen shipments under the wheatplus shipments to occupied countries2 million metricith anImport requirement of aboutillion metric tons, negotiationsr moretons of export wheat and rye may activate buying and selling on the unguaranteedof the world.
e. Carry-over Supplies.
As indicated above. Importershole, largely because of Inadequate abilities to pay, entered the current trade year9 with turnover supplies somewhat below
On the other hand, the five chief exporting countries carried over Intorade year combined stocks of8 million metric tons of breadgrain as comparedombined carry-over on85 million tons.
The increaseillion tons insupplies into the tradeay offset wholly! or in part the decline In the world's breadgrain production.
2. The Outlook.
The acreage seeded to wheat in western and northern Europe for harvest9 is less than that seeded for thc harvest of last year. Although weather conditions havesince April, lhe outlook as of Junean Indigenous supply of breadgrain for utilization, somewhat less than thathen an unusuallycombination of weather factorsto the production of one of the best wheat harvests In many years. Currentof breadgrain in the Danube Basin is expected to be not greater and possibly less than last year while in the USSR there is the prospectroduction somewhat greater than thatho Canadian crop isto be below the excellent production
"Secn paee 4.
n thc Southern Hemisphere, where wheat for harvest In the late fall and early winters planted In -June-July, no change fromroduction can be predicted as
In the United States, July conditionsa wheat harvest of nearly bumperbut the crop is expected to beless than that of last year.
Itremature to indicate whether or nothe world food supply andposition win be relatively as good as or worse than that. However, Indications point to the probabilities that lh importing countries the average indigenous breadgrain supplyill beless than that, that thestocks were below normal and that themarkets of the world may be expected to take on the average, within the framework of abilities to pay, approximately the sameof breadgrain as.
emand situation- similar to thatevelops, negotiations for as muchillion metric tons of wheat and rye and possibly more may activate the tree markets of the world.
If the political situation warrants, it Isthat the USSR may attemptlinT? or more metric tons of wheat. Should this or any other contingency arise, the United States, with uncommitted export availabilities of moreillion metric tons' should beufficiently strong position to meet competition on the International free market, within thc framework of abilities of importers to pay.
a. Position of the United States.
he wheat and rye production in tbe United States wasercent greater thanverage enabling an9 million metric tons as compared with an averageillion tons.illion tons.
illion metric tons more wheat In storage on SO9 than carried over In stocks on
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Ihe United States entered thc export year with farm and ofT-farm stocks of wheat and rye estimatedilliontons. Preliminary estimates place the
productionotal statistical supplymillion tons.
If domestic disappearance estimated6 million tons Is deductedotalsupply1 millionalance for stocks and export5 million tons lsarry-over onune
illion tons (the same as thccarry-over onsupplys indicated; thisillionthan9 million tonsallotted lo the United StalesInternational Emergency Foodshipment.
Under the provisions of the International Wheat Agreement, the United Statesillion tons of wheatt prices ranging14 per ton., the United States consigned to occupiedillion metric tons of wheat and rye.no decrease In shipments to occupied countries, total shipmentsforeseen2 million metric tons are indicated. If these estimates approximateillion tons areas available for manipulation on the world's free markets or for additionalat the end of thc current trade year. Additional stockpiling is not necessarily an unmitigated evil, because thc United States as the chief food supplier to deficit countriesarge carryover to offset anydrop In production In thc Westernor other parts of the world.
ortion of the USSR.
hc wheat and rye production in the USSRercent greater thanverage.' Shipments
verageillion metric tona) Is used for this comparison because trade data for this period are more nearly complete than for later years. The conventional prewar comparison base foe production ls theverage of aroundillion tons.8il]iontons) wasercent belowverage.
are tentatively estimatedillion metric tons as compared with an averagetoillion, shipments are estimated to havemetric tons' and atillion tons of previously accumulated farm and ofl-farm stocks of breadgrain were available to theOovernment
8 production estimatedonsupply4 million tons. Deducting domesticplaced6 million tonsa supply for export and stocksillion tons from which atillion tons were exported,tatisticalfor carry-over stockstons.
Because of Increased acreage andin June growing conditions, there is the prospectomewhat larger production of breadgrain In the USSR9 thanf, as hi thc United States, it ls assumed that the breadgrain carry-over on0 will be the same as the assumed carry-Over on9illion metriche export availability of the USSRay exceedillion metric tons estimated to have been exported.
If political expediency should so dictate, however, the Soviet Government would not hesitate to draw on any obtainable grainfor shipment abroad. In thatery considerable quantity of breadgrain in excessillion metric tons could be placed on the open markets of theithout reduction of reserve stocks.
surpluses and shipments fromPolish and Baltic territories Included within the frontiers of the USSR as
Of estimated shipmentsilliontons.illion tons were consigned to theand the Soviet Zone of Germany, whiletlUon tons were shipped to countries outside the Soviet sphere of Influence.
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Position of the Satellites.
. becauseery poor harvest, tbeakennit area, Importedinion, metric tons of wheat andn contrast to an average net exportillion metric tons during tho five. At the end of the trade year SO8 turnover supplies were
inimum
Production8 Increased materially, andew thousand metric tons of bread-grain were exported by Poland andmport requirements of moreetric tons reported by Czechoslovakia and Finland together with shipments toplaced thc areaeficit position.oland, Yugoslavia, andmay have entered the tradeith small stocks in excess of usual turnover supplies.
Combined productionarticularly because of the poor Rumanian and Bulgarian crops may not be better and may possibly be poorer than thatf this situation develops, the satellite areahole may againet Importer of breadgrainiability to the USSR.
Position of Western Europe'
During the five-yearurope produced an average0 million metric tons of breadgrain. NetC million tons, indicating an average gross supply for all utilizations6 million metric tons.
'For tbe purposes ot this analysis, the satelUtes of Eastern Europe comprise three countries that normally were net Importers of breadgrainCzechoslovakia and Finland) and fivethat normally exported wheat and ryeHungary, Poland. Rumania, andhe Soviet Zone ot Germany, which normallyIts eieess producUon of wheat and rye to Western Germany. Ls also Included.
'Aboutillion metric tons ofUUoo tons shipments originated In the USSR whilelon tons were shipped by the United States,and Canada.
'All of continental and Insular Europe west of Finland, the Soviet Zone of Germany.Hungary, and Yugoslavia but not Greece.
Production fell off sharply76 million metric tons. Reported combinedinto the area7 million tonsombined gross supply of3 million tons. Only by severe rationing, by resort to high millingand adding coarse grain and potatoes to thc bread mix, were non-farm populations maintained at near subsistence levels. End of the year carry-over supplies were minimum.
Increased acreage and an unusuallycombination of weather factors8 resultedreadgrain harvest8 million metricbest in several years. The International Emergency Food Committeeto the5 million metric tons to be shippedross supply3 millionmillion tons larger supply than the prewar average.population as well as more and better bread consumed by the non-farm population accounted for the utilizationarge part of the increased supply. Certain countries built up their usual turnover stocks to nearly customaryew countries may have carried over reserve stocks but, on theotl-farm stocks on9 were below customary levels.
Production of breadgrain in Western Europe9 is expected to be less thanhipments into the areare expected to he not less than, possiblyoillion metric tons, but may exceed that figure.
e. Posstion of the Near East.'
During thc five, the Near Fast produced an average8 million metric tons of breadgrain. Net imports9 iruliionIons indicating an average gross supply for all utilizations7 million tons. Although production7 increased2 million tons, combined net shipments Into the area3 million tons indicating agross supply5 mli-
' Includes Greece and Aegean Islands. Cyprus. Turkey. Syria. Lebanon, Palestine, Israel.Iran. Iraq. Saudi Arabia. Aden. Bahrein. Kuwait, Oman, the Truclal Coast, Yemen. Egypt. Anglo-Egyptian Sudan. Ethiopia, Eritrea, the Bc-malUands. Cyrenaica. and Tripolitania.
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tons. Increased population and improved diet resulted ln greater human consumptionhan before the war.on exports together with speculative hoarding, however, resulted in some increase in carry-over by certain countries onune into the trade.
8 combined production of the Near East was estimated3 million metric tons. In spite of an increaseillion tons in production over thatllocations and shipments of breadgrain into thc area are estimated3 million tons,ross supplyillion tonsillion tons greater than the gross supply available for all utilization.illion tons of this increased supply wereIn Greece to bring customary turnover supplies more nearly to normal Anotherillion tons were utilized hi Egypt forhuman consumption and stockpiling.illion tons were utilized to increase consumption or were added to reserve stocks in Asiatic Middleto Turkey.
Given normal weather conditions,9 production of brcadgraln in the Near East, particularly in the Asiatic Near East, should be as good as or better than thatithillion displaced persons ln the area depending in part upon Internationalonsiderable quantity of wheat will be shipped Into thc area to supplement possible intra-regional exports from surplus producingto deficit areas within the region. At the end, however, unless policies inand certain other countries change and unless the situation is altered by other causes, relatively large reserve stocks of wheat may be carried over on
osition of Northwest Africa.'
During thc five, northwest Africa produced an average8 million metric tons of breadgrain. Annual1 million tons7 million tons.ecreased6 million tons. Ship-
' Includes French North Africa, French West Africa, French Equatorial Africa. Spanish Morocco and Tangier.
ments of breadgrain into the area3 million tonsross supply9 million tons. Because ofpopulation (more thant Is possible that customary turnover supplies on8 were low.
roduction of breadgrain Increased9 million tons. There is no record of any allocation to the area, but during thc sixuly tlirough8 shipments2 million tons to northwest Africa were reported. If no further shipments were made during the last six months of thc exportross supply1 million tons of breadgrains was available for utilization,2 million tons more than was available4 million tons greater than the prewar supply. Unless consumption has been materially Increased some building up of turnover supplies is
9 harvest of breadgrain may not be less than thategardless ofand previous Increases ln supplies,of at50 million tons to the area may be made.
g. Position of Other African Areas.
During the five. the specified other African areas'an averageetric tons of breadgrains. Net imports0 tons indicating an average gross supplyetric tons.roduction was estimatedetric tons. Combined net shipments into the areaonsross supplyons.
8 production was estimated0 metric tons. Allocationsere placedetric tonsross supplyons. Although largely because of increasedarger population, and lowering extracting rates, consumption of breadgrain has been higher in South Africa and some other areas,
'Includes South Africa, Basutoland, North and South Rhodesia. Nyaialand, Tanganyika. Kenya and Uganda. Zanzibar, Mozambique. Madagascar.Mauritius. Southwest Africa. Angola,Congo. Uberia, and British dependent overseas territories tn northwest Africa.
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Ls probable that talcing the areahole stocks of wheat in excess of customarysupplies carried over on9 wereetric tons.
It is probable that the crop to be harvestedill be about the same as that harTestednd Imports Into the areaay beetric tons.
h. Position of Australia. During the war and postwar period,Increased Its production of wheatmetric Ionsrom3 million tons were exported4 million tons were carried over Intorade year on8 crop was5 million tonsotal supply for the trade9 million tons.disappearance was estimated1 million tons8 million tons foror carry-over. The InternationalFood Committee allotted to Australia an export quota5 million tons, leaving an excess3 million tons to be carried over into the trade.
The crop for harvests planted during June-July, and no prediction can be made (asegarding thcexpectancy.
Under the terms of the International Wheat Agreement. Australia's export quota has been placedillion metric tons presumably for the.
It Is expected that, although wheat used for feed during thc calendar9 will5 percent, exports mayillion metric tons attendededuction of 9In stocks. It is presumable that these calendar-year estimates may possibly hold for the9 through
i. Position of Far East-Pacific and Indian Subcontinent.
During the five, the Far East-Paelflc and Indian Subcontinent areaon the2 million metric tons of wheat. Net importsillion tonsross supply4 nuillon tons.roduction increased2 million tons and
shipments of breadgrain into the areaillion tonsross supply8 million tons. Thc Increase inheat supply is accounted for by Increased population and extended use of wheatubstitute lor rice.
roduction further increased9 million metric tons. Allocations of wheat to the area increasedillionross supply4 millionIncreaseillion tons over thc indicated supply. Japan and Korea4 million tons of thein potential supply and, Inillion tons additional supplysome Increase in stocks. China'ssupply was increased somewhat by larger production. It ls doubtful if thiswas wholly available to non-farmers In certain areas because of military activities. Military activities have also cutargeof the proposed Import supply1 million tons. New Zealandmall reserve. Part of the wheat shipped by Australia to New Zealandas low grade, unfit for human
Food shortages in India and Pakistanearly In the trade. Wheat was requiredubstitute for rice and other grain. Takenhole, end of the year stocks were low.
roduction of breadgrain in the region of the Par East-Pacific and Indiantakenhole, is expected to be below that. Large shipments of breadgrain will again be required to maintainubsistence at the relatively low level.
j. Position of Canada.
Canada greatly expanded its wheat and rye production during the war and postwar period.8 harvest wasercent larger than the average production.
Onanada entered the exportith farm and ofl-fann stocks of wheat and rye estimated5 million metric tons. Estimated production8illion tonsotal supplyuillon tons. Deducting estimated dis-
conputSntial
0 million tons9 million tons for export and slocks. TheEmergency Food Committeetoxport potential8 million metric tonsmetric tons as the statistical balance to be carried over as stocks on
9 Canadian wheat and rye crop Is estimatedillion metric tons.illion tons' (estimated carry-over onotal supply2 million tons. Deducting domesticillion tons,illion tons for export and stocks. Under the terms of the International Wheat Agreement, certain. importing countries, chiefly the Unitedhave guaranteed toillion metric tons of Canadian wheat. Even If9 harvest is not further reduced, Canada can fulfill its export quota, placedtons, onlyeduction In stocks.
k. Position of Argentina.
heat and rye harvest inwasercent larger than theproduction.
Onrgentina enteredith carry-over stocks of wheat and rye estimatedillion metric tons. Estimated productionillion tonsotal supplyillion tons. Deducting estimated domestic disappearancerdllion tonsillion tons for export and stocks. During thc8 through9 Argentina snippedillion metric tons of wheat and rye indicating carry-over stocks on9illion metric tons.
rgentine wheat crop is being seeded on an acreage about the same as for
1 Aaunehe Food and Agricultureof the United Nations estimatedcarry-over stocks on SO June IMSmetric tons.
the harvest. Average yields wouldroduction not less than thatlast year.
Argentina did not subscribe to theWheat Agreement so that any supplies of Argentine wheat and rye that entertrade channelsill be marketed, as has been the case In the past, on the basis of price and convenience,
L Position of Other Latin American
During the five, other Latin American countries (excluding Argentina) produced an averageillion tons of brcadgraln. Average net Importsthe periodillion tonsa combined gross supplyillion tons., productionillion tons. Shipments Into the region of wheat and wheat flour were equivalentillion tons ofross supplyillion tons, an increaseillion tons over the prewar average. Increased population and extended use of wheat In the diet accounted for part of this increase in supply. There was someof stocks ln Venezuela and in some of the Caribbean Islands.
, production further increasedillion tons of wheat and rye. TheEmergency Foodillion metric tons of wheat in the form of grain and flour to be shipped Into the regionross supply forillion metric tons. The Increaseillion tons In gross supplys accounted for largely by the increased allocation to Brazil.
9 combined production in Latin America (excluding Argentina) is expected to be not greater and possibly less than thathipments of wheat and flour into the regionay be expected to be equivalentillion tons more or less,
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Original document.
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