HEREWITH SUPPORT CABLE FOR MIDDLE EAST BRIEF OCPAS MEA 90-238 FOR FRIDAY, 12 OC

Created: 10/12/1990

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

I SOKE REBELS HAVE BEEN PUSHED BACA TOIW.HA HTVFfl AftfA WHERE THE TERRAIN FAVORS GUERRILLA TACTICS.ARGECE REMAINS AT GABIRO. UNCONFIRMED PRESS REPORTS SAT THE REBELS ARE BE INS SUPPLIED AND REINFORCED FROM UGANDA DESPITE KAMPALA'S EFFORTS TO SEAL THE BORDER. UGANDAN PRESIDENT MUSEVENI ANO THE FRENCH GOVERNMENT HAVE CALLEDEGIONAL PEACE CONFERENCE TO NEGOTIATE AN END TO THEAS DETAINEDOO USPECTED REBEL SYMPATHIZERS. AND PRESS REPORTS CLAIM TH*ILITARY HAS ATTACKED TUTSI VILLAGES IH THE MUTARA REGION ANO CONDUCTED SUMMARY EXECUTIONS. RWANDA'S MAIN OVERLAND SUPPLY ROUTE IS STILL CLOSED. CAUSING SHORTAGES OF FOOD AND FUEL IN THE CAPITAL. AND the DEPARTjRE CF EURO>EAS EXPATRIATES HAS CURTAILED MEDICAL AND OTHER SERVICES. |^

COMMENT: SOME OF THE REBELMAY NUMBER AS MANY ASHASNTO SMALL CUERRILLA BANDS AND MAY HAVE INF ILTRATEO THE LOCAL POPULACE. INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF PROLONGED FIGHTING AND ETHNIC REPRISALS THAT MIGHT SPILL OVER INTO NEIGHBORING STATES. PRESIDENT HABYARIMANA WILL HAVE OlFFICULTY BALANCING OUTSIOE PRESSUREETTLEMENT WITH THE RESISTANCE PF HIS HUTU SUPPORTERS TO AN ACCOMMODATION OF TUTSI INTERESTS. KIGALI IS OUlET ANO THERE IS NO OIRECT THREAT TO THES CITIZENS THERE. BUT GUERRILLA ACTIVITIES COULO ENDANGER CIVILIANS.

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st-ce the. bloody clashes throughout the region between the nuherically superior hutus and the jraditlonally ascendant tutsls have prooucco large refugee populations. border regions in southwestern uganda have the saw ethnic makeup as swanca and burundi:ercent hutu;oercent tutsi. uganda's misf.vt.ni has recruited ethnic rwandaks for his amy sincehey now hake upoercent of the ugandan arm*.

the minority tutsis rule in burundi. while the hutus have held power in ruanda since ousting the tutsls shortly after independencelaiming united resources. kigali has rebuffed attempts at wholesale repatriation of its refugees.o0 rwinoan re fusees--mostly tutsis-llve in uganda ano were the pool from which most of the invasion force wasimilar number of ruanoan tutsls are ik burundi and there are smaller refugee populations in tanzania and zaire.

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