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KEMORAHDDK FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
ASBigranr waxioirj. intelligence Officer for Africa
and Forecast Report: Sub-Saharan
Africa (U)
At their monthly meeting onovember, Intelligence Community repressntatives agreed that:
e The Rwandan government continues to confront scattered
insurgent activity, border tensions with neighboring states,otentially serious refugee problem.
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Led by DIA.
Subject: Warning and Forecast Report: Sub-saharan Africa
Three volatile issues continue to confront the government of President Habyarinana: the ongoing insurgent activity of the Rwandan Patriotic Frontorder tensions with both Uganda end Tanzania; and the statue of Tutsi rcfugoes scattered throughout East and Central Africa.
OO-man Tutsi-dominated RPF combatants continue to operate in the northeastern part of Rwanda in small units
SUBJECT: Warning and Forecast Report: Sub-Saharan Africa
hit ond run tactics. While the RPF will be able to carry on low intensity conflict for some time to come, it will not have the capability toountry-wide insurgency. an Rwandan Armednewto receive arms, ammunition, and trainingariety of sources and while its logistical capability remains good, lack of training and effective leadership will greatly hinder its ability to defeat the RPF.
Tensions between Kigali and Kampala will also persist, focusing on perceived assistance to the rebels through porous borders. There will also be some strain with other states in the region over the larger issue of the
potential repatriation of
exiloci Tutaia back to Rwanda.
This protracted insurgency will magnify Rwanda's already serious problems. Weakenedorsening economy and factionalism among the majority Rutus, Habyarimana is now under serious challenge from Hutu hardliners seeking reprisals against Tutsia. While there arm ongoing attempts at negotiations, it is unlikely these issues will be resolved soon.
CoUcction Notes.
Original document.
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