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Conflict Thrwlens Regional SwbUity
Inconclusive fighting and the uncertain prospectsegotiated settlementrolonged stalemate between tke Rwandan Army and rebelevelopment that would fuel ethnic tensions and destabilize the region.
The standoff between the Army and forces of lhe Rwandan Patriotic Front continues in the northeast, someilometers from Kigali. Rebel supply lines extend into Uganda where Tutsi refugees and some elements of the Ugandan Army apparently have provided support despite Kampala's efforts to control the border
Meanwhile, France and Belgium have provided military supplies to the Rwandan Army and have sent some troops lo protect their nationals and secure the airport.
Zairian troops weres ucloner ami an ineffective and undisciplined performance)
Diplomatic initiatives led by Belgium. Ugandan President Museveni, and other regional leaders arc under way to defuse the conflict. The two sides are far apart but have agreed in principleeasefireegional conference on the repatriation ofutsi refugees.T)
iplomatic solution probably willcuiral mediator; T
I Museveni isist LA'
Museveni and Rwandan President Habyanmana also must avoid alienating key domestic constituencies. Museveni wants to retain the loyalty of the roughlyercent of his Army who come from the Rwandan refugee community, and Habyarimana wants to appear flexible on the refugee issue without undermining his mostlv Hutu power base. Neighboring states are pressingesolution of the refugee problem, but repatriation, primarily from Uganda and Burundi, would overwhelm Rwanda's resources and aggravate ethnic hostility r
Ncilher side is likely io gain enough ouisici.Qry,|
ne -miiu nimrct1 weaken Habyarimana and give his military opponents an excuse to replace him. It would also increase the likelihood of ethnic tensions erupting inlo regional violence that would greatly increase the number of refugees.
Special Analysis
Original document.
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