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Office of Near Eastern ana South Asian AnalysisO- Intelligence
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note for: (doci
subject: memorandum on influencing iraq
as you have requested we have reviewed the ner.orar.dua on influencing iraq that we gave you last week. this version considers three scenarios and identifies some key intelligence questions we face under each.
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MEMORANDUM
SUBJECT: Three Scenarios to End the Gulf Crisis
He judge US policy actions can move tho Persian Gulf crisis in at least three directions over the next several months. The United States can threaten war and initiate conflict, threaten war but avoid hostilities, or opt nowong stalemate hoping to use sanctions to compel Iraqi retreat. This memorandum outlines the challenges facing the United states in each scenario and the key intelligence questions the US will face in each.
ScenarioWar; Fioht if Necessary
(A)
Diplomacy seeks to keep coalition united; provide Iraq only with ultimatum and no negotiations! options includewar council" summit with Saudis, Kuwaitis, Egyptians, and UK to signal resolve and set war aims (other troops contributors would be consultedressing Soviets for military participation; threats to break relations with Iraq; withdrawal of non-essential personnel from Gulf States, Jordan, and Israel.
Public Diplomacy suggests coalition patience is over, blames Iraq for stalemate, hints President is determined to fight to establish his "place in history."
Military Operations include highly visible training and movement close to border, large-scale overflights to underscore air superiority, dropping leaflets on population, Turkish forces strengthen border deployments, and Syria moves forces to border.
SUBJECT: Three Scenarios to EndGulf Crisis
(B)If Iraq retreats, if so move to C)
Diplomacy must enunciate war aims, especially policy toward Saddam and future of Iraq, resist pressure for cease-fire in place, prepare to restore law and order in Kuwait and possibly Iraq, keep Israeli role as limited as possible.
Public Diplomacy explains war aims to Arab world, mobilizes Arab spokesmen, highlights Arab participation in war, and warns Iran to stay out.
Military seeks quick, devastating, and decisive victory at minimal cost; prepare to protect US Embassies and interests in most Arabic Islamic states.
(C) Post-War
PrJPlPIPacy deals with implementing war aims, providing humanitarian help to Kuwait and possibly Iraq, maintaining Arab alliance to keep Iran out of Iraq and possibly to negotiate with Israel, possible formation of new Iraqi democratic government, negotiate new regional security apparatus, reassuring Iran,
Public Diplomacy portrays war as the first victory for new post-war world order*
ssists with occupation of Kuwait and possibly Iraq, priority is to hand over responsibility to Arab forces.
Kev Intelligence Questions
Political trends in Iraq after Saddam, especially influence of Iran and Syria.
Damage assessments in Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Israel.
OP SJKTRET
SUBJECT: Three Scenarios to End the Gulf Crisis
Regional reactions, especially in unstable pro-Iraq states like Yemen, Jordan, and in Saudi Arabia.
Scenario II: Threaten War: Avoid hostilities
Pro-Januaryame as in first scenario.
Post-January 15
Diplomacy seeks to keep pressure on Iraq, possible new UNSC resolutions, maintain support for embargo and sanctions especially with Iran and Jordan,
public Diplomacy seeks to counter Arab perception that momontum has swung toward Iraq and that coalition lacks resolve to fight, emphasizes cost of sanctions for Iraq.
Military seeks to maintain credible threat while rotating and resting, keep up pressure by overflights, psyops.
&SY Intelligence Questions
Trends in coalition unity,!
Iraqi military trends, particularly new unconventional weapons developments.
Scenario III: Downplay War. Relv on Sanctions
Beginning as soon as possible:
Diplomacy downgrades significance ofanuary UNSC deadline, stresses Iraq's global isolation, seeks to maintain coalition unity and keep Israeli profile low, new UNSC resolutions strengthen embargo by punishing violators, manages Saudi and other Arab impatience.
Public Diplomacy emphasizes cost of sanctions for Iraq, Saddam's isolation, exploit Hajj as proof United States is not desecrating Mecca.
TOP SECRET
SUBJECT: Three Scenarios to End the Gulf Crisis
M^jlltarv seeks to keep pressure on Iraq while resting/training forces in Saudi Arabia and avoiding frictions with Saudi conservatives.
Key Intelligenceame as Scenario II.
Original document.
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