Warning Page
Coo tents
Irag-Krmalt: Situation Report . .
Yugoslavia: Buck lo thc Hunk L .;
AngqU: Peace Talks Show. Signa Of Progress - A
Notea USSR; Military Brass Not High on Gulf
Liberia: Peace keeping Force On the
ThaHaite:ough Patch
rvipg Up the 10
i Pressure for Ukrainian Independence
: Moldavia Signs Agreement With Romania II
in Brief . './ ,
ScecUlSaddaM Sends Mixed . 3
*International Gxnpiiaxtce With UN
Hostage* May Be Fmd
rricate of nine French hostages today,hostages are to be allowed to leave Iraq at the endisit to Baghdad by tbe presidentranco-Iraqi friendshipH i" 3
|This order follows Saddam's announcement that he will
seek an early dialogue with France on the I'crsiaa fiulf crisis and is probably an attempt to separate Paris from the other EC countries and the US. Saddam's offer probably will not change the hard French line against Iraq; Mitterrand told the UN General Assembly that useful discussions could take place only if Iraq removed its troops from Kuwait and released all hostagesy
Bans Truck Traffic to Saudi Arabia
PLO May Be Smuggling Good* to Iraq
authorities have banned all truck traffic lo Saudi Arabia and other Gulf slates via Jordan in response to lUyaoTla ban against Jordanian trucks entering SaudiThe action is in retaliation for restrictions on Jordanian trucks by the Saudis, who on Sunday turned backrucks loaded with Jordanian goodsorderm southeast of Amman.""
Tep-Secrct_ ,
Back to the Brink
Slovene Republic'* decision to lake control of the armed forces on lis territory and rising ethnic tension In Croatia art again building pressure^ for tht military to interment to preserve the Yugoslav,
President Jovic cut short his UN visit to conven<rthe3federaI presidency today to consider options io the crises in Slovenia and Croatia. Slovenia over thc weekend replaced the federally appointed territorial defense commander and took command of the national guard. Tension remains high in Croatia, where authorities are trying to restore calm in Serb-populated areas of theove late last week by Croat police to secure arsenals in Serb towns sparked three days of unrest. Croatia used armed security forcestocootrol Serb demonstrations for the first time this weekmd,J| v
Officials of both the federal military and the Serbian government are callingough response. The Federal Ministry of Defense warned Slovenia last week that thc Yugoslav Army will not allow formation of republic armed forces. The military said it would advise the federal government to take urgent measures to protect tbe integrity of the Army and the Constitution. The Serbian presidency yesterday called on the federal government to end persecution of the Serb minority in Croatia and to use force if necessary. Serbian political parties, led by strongman Slobodan Milosevic's Socialists, arc calling on thc federal government to send police to Croatia to safeguard
7Ooobel990
USSR: Military Brass Not High on Gulf Intervention
The military leadership may see the Persian Gulf crisis as weakening Moscow's long-term geopolitical interests and are reluctant to become directly involved there. General Staff Chief Moiseyev told journalists last week that he would not discuss joint military actions during meetings with US leaders. Hc cautionedulf war wouldery high toll and restated Soviet supporteaceful solution. Last month. Defense Minister Yazov told an Italiamicwjpaper that he ruled out Soviet military involvement in the crisis]
JYazov and Moiseyev have faithfully supportedon the Gulf crisis, although it is unclear if theyGorbachevs decision to side with the West. Discontentmilitary over Gorbachev's Gulf actions does not threatenover policy. Military leaders probably are reluctant toinvolvedituation that does not nowdircctlySoviet security interests and that coulo^bccoraeand expanded Middle East war. Nevertheless, theyalongolitical decision to' commit Soviet forces underof the UN Military Staff Conunittee. Yazov hashis remarks on using Sovjet forces sincethis possibility at the U^ ^
20
LIBERIA. Peacekeeping Force oa the Offensive
The West African peacekeeping force attacked positions held by YCharles Taylor's rebels'
'iy.cnan contingentiflBaajjKmoWed an artUlery attack "t" 2
for rehel sbeiling
1 Monrovia despite the peacekeepinguffer zone between thc warring groups. -
Executive Mansion whichsupporters of rival
*tw" . .1
to 1
einforcements and thearrivalore aggressive "Nigenan commander.appeatto have strengthened the force's , to^mteryene militarily. Taylor's recent amcks probably confirmed
Taylor could be Compelled jo wiwdrawayne and Congo Town to preyerit an attack on his rear. Theorce is having some success pushing back Taylor's troops in
Monrovia, huta; long as it cannotuffedhe'
S Embassy will hc-in dangerlBBBsm
THAILAND: Government
Although under fire over the consequences of cu'gber oU.pricesrecovering within hi.party and 'the rnilitary.
Prime Mtn ish aicbai probably 'is in no umriediate
.^gkoVreceo^
weeks and announced tax cuu and price conUTals oniric services in; an effort to blunt the impact on the public. Inflation is already ercent, an eight-year high, and labor unions are demanding that * " Bangkok prevent .buying power from eroding further. The country's - Iocl market has tumblederceni since Iraq tovaded Kuwait
USSR: Carving Up the Komsomol
The likely breakup of the nationalthc distribution of its property tounits mightress rehearsal for the apportionmentofficial national trade union"7
Hfthe All-Union Komsomol Central Committee plenum to be held onndctober may focus on the ownership ofthe organization's considerable assets. Republic Komsomol leaders have been pressing for greater independence from the central organization and demanding their shareational assets. The Russian Republic organization, for example, recently voted to ask the All-Union Komsomol for SO billion rublesroportional share of thc profits from the organization's many tourist facilitie
Komsomol officials probably will succeed in
gaining control over most ofthe assets ofthe All-Uoionvictory, however, may be short lived as rival organizationsrepublics begin to press Komsomol organizationshareassets. The dissolution ofthe Komsomol rnay alsodemands on the Communist Party and thc*afficiaito distribute their accumulated assets.
10
USSR: Pressure for Ukrainian Independence Building
Nationalist demonstrations in Kiev, although smaller thanshow growing pressure on the republic legislatureindependence. More0 Ukrainianson Sunday and yesterday to coincide with thebut there was minimal support foranstrike The demonstrators' demands includedof traditionalist republic leaders, rejection of thetreaty now being prepared in Moscovv^and the returnconscripts to thc-y
(pTne majority of the Ukrainian people and legislators support remainingoviet confederation with considerable autonomy for the republic; the demonstratorsocal minority pushing for outright independence. Thc gradual rise of nationalist influence is nevertheless likely to make theeconomically and strategically the most important republic afterobstacleeformed confederation. Nationalists are taking the political lead, as they did inadical sovereignty declaration in July, while thc Communists are declining in power and reacting to events. Several factors, including economic decline, the activist miners of the Donets Basin, and potential moves by traditionalist forces against nationalists or their political objectives, could quickly radicalize the politics of thc republic.
USSR: Moldavia Signs Agreement With Romania
Efforts of the Moldavian and Romanian Governments to strengthen cross-border relations culminated in the signingreaty of mutual cooperation last Friday. The treaty, which formalizes and expands existing economic, scientific, and cultural ties, is Moldavia's first official agreementuropean state. The republic has also signed agreements with several African countrics.B
Moldavia is seeking to highlight its self-declared sovereign in the USSR and to ease its transitionarket economy. As ethnic Romanians, the Moldavians arc looking to Bucharest for assistance in resurrecting their long-suppressed national identity. They also hope tooundation for eventual reunification with Romania.ew radical Moldavian nationalist groups are now calling for immediate unity, and the Soviets are not likely to oppose increasin^mtact^>Mween Moldavia and Romania
by
In Brief
proposes appointing Gubenko to Presidentialesponse to concerns that liberalization has "commercialized" Sovietubenko likely to promote Russian cultureithout suppressing non-Slavic,.
Presidential Councila lalinffered to appoint him Soviet premier.
rov in public
Viz
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Turnout in Hungary's local elections belowercent in many urban areas, necessitating runoff later thisndependents won most mayoralpposition svUlexnloit. strong showing against Democratic Forum in Budapcsi|
to
Transition under way in Singapore, First Deputy Prime Minister Goh to succeed Prime Minister Lee in laterade Minister Lee, Prime Minister's son, named one ofGohVtwomphasizing continuity in policies.HMM
Communist insurgents may be behindsome of thc recent bombings of US-affiliated businc
rune
i. evidence suggests culprits wereattacked since lasty
Mongolian legislature Thursday created new, streamlinedPrime Minister Byambasuren beads body ofublicly promisedappointments announced in coming weeky
I Ckiober 1W0
iWi'l iliii ii
Special Analysis
Send* Mixed Sigma)*
robably mil would most prefer to try to outlast the resolve of the US and other stations that oppose hint, lo encourage sanctions basting, omd to continue efforts to "Iraqify" Kuwait. He probably believes he still has Important cants to play to swims; toe outcome ofthe crisis im hisImproved ties to Iraa, manipulation ofthe hostage and humanitarian aid issues, propaganda, and terrorism. Hit threatening rhetoric and belligerent actions, however, are consistent wtth reports that he has concluded military hostilities with the US are all but Inevitable. The risk that he will suddenlyonflict ma) therefore be j
Tbe regime oondeptember harshly rejected any compromise and threatened to expand the conflict if war begins ortrangles Irnn'seconomyJ
Moreover. Saddam's statement oneptember was rife with anti-US rhetoric and callsoly war against the US. He repeated his determination not to relinquish Kuwait, rejected any Arab-mediated compromise solutions, and encouraged Iraqis to aspire lo martyrdom. The speech gave Mitterrand's recent peace proposal only bnef attention and touched on only those portions of Mitterrand's plan Baghdad believes suppori in callialogue without
Although he probably sees the US as currently determined to force his withdrawal, Saddam apparently hopes his threats will deter the US from taking military action against him and buy time to consolidate his hold on Kuwait. He probably sees little hope of settling the crisis on his terms before the multinational forces are fully mobilized in Saudi Arabia!
continued
20
Still on lhe Defensive in Kuwait
The Iraqis continue to strengthen their defensive military postureand southern Iraq. Iraq also has the capability to launchor terrorist attacks at any time and limited groundlittle warning. The Iraqi military leadership probably wouldto initiate acts of war in thc immediate future, but itsway over Saddam
Saddam's Miscalculations
Despite bis strident rhetoric, however, Saddam does not appear desperate; bis judgment seems unimpaired. Nonetheless, tbe mounting tension in the region and Saddam's record of miscalculation and propensity to take chances mean thereisk he willudden military move to force the band of the US.I
Although Baghdad appears to have carefully planned the invasion, the regime's inability early in the crisis to co-opt disaffected Kuwaitisollaborationist government and its serious miscalculation of the strong international reaction demonstrate anew that Saddam sometimes misjudges thc political consequences of his actions, as in Iraq's invasion of Irane probably wiU continue totoward^ohl^iiiury moves and Hawed political judgment, ft
*
v3
Special Analysis
Compliance With UN Sanctions
application, of sanctions has slashed the flows of goods to and from Iraq, hut potential loopholes remain that might increase the difficulty of enforcement in the weeks | <PJ
During the past two months, most nations have supported the UN's request to implement sanctions against Iraq. More thanountries adopted UN Security Council, which calls for boycotting shipments to and from Iraq. Among tbc potential sources of problems, Baghdad will not permit food to enter Iraq under UN auspices but will accept humanitarian shipmentsilateral basis; this policy may lead some countries to seek ways independent of the UN to ship food to their nationals. The restoration of ties between Iraq and Iran mayajor hole in thc embargo. Tbe potential exists for significant supplies of food and other goods to cross from Iran to Iraq should Tehran elect to pursueoliq'| |
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