Terrorism Reviewr|H
Warning Page
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!and lit client Palestinian groups hive made. cpara* lions for terrorist attacks n, US, oiher Wcilecn, end moderoic Arabiarieis. If war erupts In Ihe Gulf, Iraqi President Saddam Husayn wilt almost certainlyajor terrorist campaign, with nmuliantoui attacks likely to occur in several geographicoo violence Is also probobteountries whereuceut.ajBfa*
Higaiigbti,
The Tirrorlil Taraai lo US Ptraoruwl In Lebanon <
Tha security situation ir Beirut il Improving, but the recently nturntc) US Embassy nalT will be ai significant risk for thavretaailanu include Hiiballah ekmenu. supporters of -aitcd Christian General Awa, and otherieranccs against tbe United Statu. tMkaW
Coualry Profile; Terrorism lo CtuJ*
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terrorism on an upswing: In Chile, wa take not* of recent ineitUnu and ot* the group*atch aa potentlarperpetratees of future aiiacka.f)
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Terrorism Ret
anuary
I'eralan Gulf: Tbc TarrarUt Threat afJJ^
lenceordan and Yemen
Potted for Attack
Iraqi intelligence services and diemoups are capable ofattacks againsi US, ojner Wcicrn. and moderate Aribtarjowai
tlancok
in countries with lianlncanf pro-Iraqi sentiment such as-
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Sine* tbc cCr*ryrneaiWcMrrn force, to Saudi Arabia. US aaattmauCfac.lu.es worldwide have received doeen* of threatenini telephonektten. Some tbrcati appear lo be partarasaincni campaignBaghdad or conducted by mpponcri of Iraqi President Saddamcalls and Idlers have been received In aeveralelect fewtenulnr, wrnlrtsji of I tuciu. ajjjtoa>
Suchncourated by the propatand. campaigny senior Iraqi omciala. PalaitusUn eat.-enurlt, and Islamic leaden Saddamhas caUodashm -fcolyd his at kg* lion thai US military force*re denlmg Muslim holy litea has prompted colli by Palcatiniaa and Itlamic fundamentalist leaders lot terrorist attack* against Was tern and moderate Arab
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groups appear lo link implementation of thcr terroun pUci to hostilities in ihe Gulf,umber of factori conic" induce otc or more of the groups to act earlier. Theie include rcicnimcnt of the Western military presence and concern about the possibilityiplomatic settlement Uai would leave the (roup's ioals unfulfilled. The ANO. forample, which Is dedicatedhe dt.truetion of Israel, oughtajor tmorlii Incident Ia order to lighi the ruseiddle Eastern war that almost certainly would include Itrad. efJjBfife
appcan to be seeking io.ipi.-uferment against Israel and probably will encourag* Palemciaa terrorism -iiftio Israel aad abroad. In early Deenmber. for tuapk.ni.rn.uona> conference on ihe mn/adflA. including tbe PFLP-GC and lhe Palest.niaa Islamic Jihad amoni ibe participant, Iranian rhetoric at this esoferet.ee stressed suppon for armed resistance to Israel Iran almosi certainty retards support for Palestinian violenceeans toag', appeal amocg the Palestinians and to brinish its own credentials
In our judgment. Saddam has been keeping the terrotiii ont.on in reserve while he attempts to take advantaat of Interna liana! diplomaticagbdad almost certainly believes ihai ihe United Stales would ait terrorist attacks traceable to Iraqeason to inmate hostilities. aflH
thcanuary UN Security Council deadline for Iraqiai draws toser. Saddam mar esplort ihe utility of the terreeui option agnnsi moderate Arabc believe hu atrsieav weald be toterrorist atucka cast as the work of domestic opponent* in order to foment unrcsl in Arab countries aligned againsiaVJaa
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Tile threat to US and other Western interest* is equally strong from entities not eomrol.cd by Iraq. Palesuman and Muslimbacked bywho believe the Untied Statescrrmtncnt presence in Ibe region may ccnduci attacks to weaker Arab support tor thc multinational coalition and to drive out the United Sutct.SjjatttS
war irupu. Saddam almost cartalaly willajor terrorist campaign againstis. Multiple, simultaneous attacka arc likely to occur in several geographic regions possibly Including tbc Unitedan effort to captarc maximum publicity and sot* widespread panic.
jr hat have prepared
terrorin attacks independently of Baghdad arr poised and eager to act. Some European and Latin American terrorist groups may also follow through on their stated inttntians to attack US targets in the event of war. Mob violence against US initallationa is probable, particularly in countries such as Jordan end Yemen.
US initallationa is probable, particularly in where pro-Iraq sentiment is itroftg.^BMr
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If she current crisis la resolved short of war. Iraq almost certainly will keep Its tor-rcnsi apparatus intact for future use.ikely to use it for revenge against Arab states that opposedSaudi Arabia, Syria, and Egypt. Attacks agauut US and other Western targets arc unlikelyubstantial military presence remains poised on ihe border. Once the multinational force o-n. however. Saddam may secretly approve atucks against US interests io aemonsuaie that hts agreementiplomatic solution baa not diminislisd his independence from Weatern
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Significant Derdopment.
Europe Creec.
Spile
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oiaouMr Strikes
Mrronlt N^nlb<r* rocket attackhe
u. -ere Injuredflvin8
were then launched simtrJ tbc ifrom ibe EC
Theovombar group ba.conomlc auaieriiy program,y (tie government', plan, to Mil onTuaic companies, the focu. of itsaauaigii this rear. Theovember attach elcarty wai limed toati lhc government before the EC and io dcmoniiralc coniempt forecant paitageountencrrorlitn law tapandlng police investigative powers. Id aclaiming retponalbility for the attack, ihc group condemned the EC forc-ie> of unci austerity on the Greektrrriarfluaaiajoroan. Thc attack followed Prima Minister Mhwtakii'. eturn from the EC nmmlt in Rome In addition, the larroriiu threatened ike" Saudis and condemned their phut, to buyercent of thc stale refineries: thc group also reiterated Iu repeat threat, to Germany for failing to pay, war reparations owed tohis was the fourth terrorist incident targeting ihe EC ofhec*8 and Ihc thirdovember rocket attackheother rocket incident* targeted the US Quo Proctoi and Gambiarominent Grcak
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ETA Strpa Up
Tie Scaaiah domcaiicroup fliKjue Fatherland aad Liberty (ETAfv Isaacerie, of attack, againstccnctals and civilians ia November1 and December. Tbe most lethal Incident occurredecember when ETA reeacrtelxowerful car bomborthern suburb of Barcelona, killing tu police oTBceriapiLjgiindiflj foigni clv/Jjaniin lac
inctdent.ewspapar
a ii*ecember. Ip it. call claiming reapon.ibilliy, ETA suiad lhal the mar. vraspotior Lnforrnen9^Bai
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Ja'uaij ItVl
Thc^tcrmiH incident, atecccnt surge af explosive. Incendiary and direct atucks by ETA terromta. In November tbc group was responsible for
*i* bombings and an equal number'of fires targeted against security oihcials. ar well as individual, and equipment associated with the const ructionontroversial highway project linking Madrid and thc Basque region. Despite ontinued attacks, which claimedives by laicH French
Middle Earn
Terrorist Targets
Terrorist atucks against United Arab Emirates tUAEl Interestson US miliiary operation* In'inc Persian Gulf,
Saddam Husayn has aiated publicly that sbe UAE would be punished for siding jvith the Wet and permuting US miliury personnel to be based in the
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ArrorUu T. b> Rtieated
Sudani nationalecidedanuary to raleaic thc tire AbuiaNO) memberi convicted of carrying out grenade andon the British dab and Ibe Aeropole Hotel ia Kbartaam in3 thatpersons and tojaredThe Sudanese court. appl>ing, uidwas based oa ihe rcfatal.of the victimsofhornimpose lhe death penalty or to accept financial: defenda
Sudan's decisionelease the ANO members reflects worsening Sudanese relations with the Wen and undetseoees Ibe high lerrorlsi thecal lo Wcatarn interests in Sudan. Islamic fundamentalliii increasingly control lbc Bashiii regimendontribuitd to lbc government's pro-Iraqi till in the current Gulf crisis. The fundamentalists occupy key positions in Ihc foreign and I
Latin AoHrlca EI Saliador
FMLN S Servicemen
Members Of tbcabundo Marti Liberation front (FMLN) sum-ml) ESCCalcd two US 1
rones In northern El Salvador -here Salvadoean military aircraft had FMLN fire la Use bit several
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errorist Threat toPersonnel in Lcba
The tecurlty ut nation in Beirul is imptcmns. bulrdsmeel US Embuy tun will be al tig IIIf Icrrorisl aiiackiariety ofthe foticcabsc future. Wc belicra Hubillintuppancn ol ousted Cbristiin Gca.many of whom believe ihey were sold oui byStates, pose lhc greatest threat. Othertigtificani triers ncei attjol theelement! of lhc farmer US Cmbaiiy6redor example and aaucmlttj alu attemptettle
If war breaks out" uTlho Gulf. Iraq couht call on caircmiil Palutlnian groups rciidcnt la La bat. such as the Abu Nidal organiialion and ihcebanon.
Saevrity BftsMoa In Beirul .-
The rmpMmcaiaUoriovernment security plan bat improved security conditions in Beirut, and aome semblance of ordtr has returned to ihc capiieL Chris Uaa aad MtoHm miliuai have moved moat forces out of Beirut, while the government coDttmies to deploy units of tbe Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) ihrough-oui thedw.TWfragile
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step (or iheLebaneicolather Ihan symbolic control ofand disarm all militias as iiipuiaicd is ibeReconciliationjjjj
The major lnifltii groups oreouey of lacii cooperaiion with lac governmeni. bulTitty are con-liauiRg io tiall on iaauGtie cling iheir power.
,and mumal
strait aatang the miuiiaa rtmaln high. Tbcy have uadtd aciuutioni about lack of compliancethi
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aecuriiy plan. and. in our judgment, all mililiat have retained fighters and small and medium arms ihrougboal ihe city. Oathes between rival miliiUt, particularly Christian militias operating in the 'Awkar area, could erupt without warning, trapping US pc.ionnel Mfc
Potlilrc polilical dcvelopmenit tuch at thetbc Green Line and the reopening of roads throngLebanoa have negative tecvrily implication*.unification of Beirut, for cxarnplc. facilitate!of radical Shia. Palctiinlan, andinto and within Ihe cily. This makes ilterror is; group* to turvcil ihe US Embauyand mow iiore movement of USBdi ui(3)
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dQ Western largeU in Lebanon. US initials arc at greatest risk. Although other Western nations have Operated embassies in Beirut without Interrupt ion ever lheears, thc threat to theses las beenorically than; US diplomat* Savatai fitters account for the highermm* IS threat:
The Inac-numbcr of utrceisi group* resident in Lebanon that nroagi) orwotc US iaflncr.it ink East aad. is pmiiKulai. US lupport for IsracL
The perception among mans Lebanese and Palestin iam Urine, ia Lebanon that the Untied Siaici hai been responsible tot the poliucal eU*iotcgralioE cT tht couniry over the panear*.
ht status of the United Statesuperpower and the leader of Ihc Waiiem community in Lebanon, andymbolic, high-profile large! for attack.
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In our view, ihc following groups pose ihc encsf- -serious ihreat^io US interciis:
Hiiballah. Since its Inceptionizballah has publicly pledged to eliminate Western, particularly Os, influence in Lebanon. In pursuit of this goal, the
group has carriedumber of attacks against US and Westernncluding car-bombings againsi the US Embusy and Marine barracks3 and thc kidnapping of more thanesterners.continue* to be opposedS presence in Lebanon, and we believe the group may attempt to carry out an atiack against the recently reopened US Embassy in Beirut. Despite thc Syrian moveeirut, some Hiiballah terrorists certainly hove remained in the area, and the group probably hasonsiderable arsenal throughout ihe
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and French largess In Lebanon and elsewhere Ifout in ihc Gulf. Given Hizballah'* strengthIt would be caaicr for the group lo planout an operation directed againsi thein Beirut than in other Middk EasternEuropean
Christian Thnrat. The Uniicd States Is perceived by elements of the Christian community to haveor even given tacit approval to the Syrian move ousting Christian Gen. Michel Awn. Awn supporters believe that thc United States is alio partly to blame
Disgruntled Christiansarticularly icrious threat to US inierests because they might be able to compromise the effectiveness of ihc LAP and local guard force thai arc responsible for tbc Emboss security, j
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CmmiUtiei. There ore numerous otherin Lebanon ihai have Both thc capability and motivation to attack US Intereiu:
Some former loareU dismissed when the Embassy elated in9 have not been itbircd and may harbor gtudg es.
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Security at tbe US Embassy will improve asmeasures are implemented, but US ofbciali in Lebanon remain prime terrorist targets for thefuture. There have been no ipeeinc threat* against thc Embassy or iu lUtT since the return to Beirut In late November, but this may reflect thc preoccupation of Hiiballah. tbe Christians, and others
with thc implementation of the Greater Beirut sccuri* ly plan. As US personnel become more active,'their vulnerability lo lerrorist allacks will grow. Thepresence of US personnel enables terrorist elements to monitor US activities and Carefully plan aa atuck. thus Increasing the likelihood of success. In addiiion io car-bombings androups may attenpt to kidnap US personnel: |
Country
Tcrorism iu'
Chileharp upsurge in terrorist attacks. specifically focused against USrompt in *
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atti-US tern*psxrse taking atoward men sopbuticated and lcihilestaurant froQucntcd bybombed, injuring Ihree US sailoraomb concealedat exploded al akilling one Canadian and tcvtnly injuringEmbauy employee. Previous incident* appearbeen designed more to haras* than to injur*Anti-US aitacka are likely to continue ator angreater pace in the near termradical left's frustration at not having aover tbc newly farmed democratictbeyS backed. Theygoveesto^ciiLno moreontinuation ofthat doe* not addreuabusae, the concerns of political prUcmn.left'sgenda^3
Xtvt'it Blunt
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hronolog) of Tertofbm
are dttenbed srlecied note^orih, foreiyn and International cent,terrorists or iht -it of ttrrorlsi tactics. Thtte errors hare occurred or come to III hi Since our lasl issue In some caset. Iht pirpeiraiori and iheir moilvaUoruot be hnown. Events and developments thai have already beta dtstrtbtd
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Northern Irtlandt Former Ultur Dtftnst Btgimett soldier .hot and killed, hi, wife tvloutl,injured in South Londonderry. The Ptovurtrialsblicto
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Franco; Bomb detonates at European Univtrsiiy Gracchus flabtuf group claimed responsibility.
Threeeered PIRA recovered daring raid la Antwerp.
arretted aad arm, ond tr-mvnliioa
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Poekmgt bomb, mulled to on engineer on the truetum-Bemtasndeactivated by Ctnil Cmardtjploiire tethaicianj, TU lsaja.beUbeny
France: Bomb dttiroyi apartment building under construction in Biarrlit, Tha Iparroiarrak wrrorlii (roup logo wai left aic-ajpr
St parol in mm shoot oadkill thruraid am home la
Akariu village in Mardia Provinceiq
Two Der-Sol urtorisis ihooi and hill retired police lieuitnamt waitingim
Bomb damage* office belonging ro VS coimeucifirm in Forii. Tbe Gracchus Babcuf groupdalmcd teipouibUiiy. Bja^
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Simultaneous bombitgi of National Police vehicles la Sam Sebast Amoetbitta camit oat death ond two iajariti.used rs-poMTbUu,
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SpainE,plait*iri near aPolicetlrllian, in apatting vtbi.it LTAcipo; .
Ttrr+eyrMetl'edell,genrei, ttcrrmdar. ThcS and
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Packagerettt4irm Imalted Im tkt irnnan-Andaain
highway project bat itoltnuttal employee, eiplodet. injuring Ml ETA I "X
Valencia,fc>"5
Malata. cocktail, thrown by pertontotorcycle, demagti loalki-Lniki Bank laAtbem tmbarb. Thc "Antauic Cell" oraaitttaiiciri claimed reipoim-
Turkey: Four TIKKO member, paint tlagnn nnd letflre ta the Hartal Hettdenar-ten of the ftationalitt Labor Party near I,, ly*S
Hanker. Ireland: PIRA gnnmen open fire an harder rheckpoimi In Rcttlenthe eeptrai.o* ol the groapi Chriitmoa teaiefire. There -ere no
bul
J December
Bank. Shot, jUed at lawman* ba, aadqf follaw.agpatiemgen -re' lalatart*am, *
Bank:ctMui ihvot an4pecte4i: 'i-*^
IHlM gammonochet propelled grenade at an ttacauaaal taitttatt inAd Daeirut." Mtb
Dayr at Balah re/ugee camp.
trip; Matktd indiriduali ,hoot andmpeded collaborator from
Serpntl
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* Strip: Mathtd mem break ike arms mmd leg*uiptcitd rottabeemtorfi(gj
lirael, raltiiiaiant itab mmd kill ikrte israelii in an aluminum plant Im Yafa.
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I as ike Fhalaagiii Beirm. wounding rum eeridamiiearby
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ecember
27.
Utinecember
men kill suspected collaborator fromty.
a sutpeered collaborator from Ram
Wen bUmk. Masked men attack mad Allakotm
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Lebeuon- Tumi gmatmen shoot and kill fbalaosrlit Forty leader Emile Daw- aad
Jmiv Masked men shoot aadmpacted collaborator in Al Birth
Wail Bent: Suspected Iirarl. aunenma thooii and - ikree Aeab earnear Guik 'Ettron. Thetoi ZMniil Rcuibuiloit elaimed
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CaWav four Laataeo Youth Mordmamt (Milmemberi ton bomb at Mor. chaoel la Santiago, causing moderate damage to the building,
Chlltt Four MJL member, fir. Into the unoccupied homehilean family honing rum American Mormon mtnienarlei In ihe Coiehall section af Santiago. -Yankee* out of Chile MJL" waa apray palmed on the houie
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Amaru Beuotailoamry Mart me at (MRTAj kldaopseal-pharmaceutical buiimesimna Hory Halfln from garage la Linel andomb la Allart) wai lhal and woundedthey escaped tajft
Expiation at tbe Book of Bottom an tut of Fmidtnt Bushmil to
Burnt, Aim cants major damage but no Injurlts. The Eva Peron Command
claimed capon.
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Chtlt, Manuel tViifir; Patriotic Front(IPMR) member* ton tmoll bomb in /root af US Coniele.tr io Santiago en ere a] Peeiidint Umhi titit. No damage or Injuries were reported. djl
BtiMn Commotio Ntttoe Rei Zamor* ICNRZj memberi anaiiinateLontdole. prominent batimtitmoo omd Coca Colo mamager hold umceafter police imrronnd their hideout, foul CNPZ members were killedpolicemen Mounded in theoot cut
Haiti: Eiplailon I, An,tide poliiical rally hill, uvea and rvaundi at lean SOim Fetionulle. Supporters of hardline Du'auerlil Roger Lafoniaat
Chile: FPMR ttrreritti deionnte bomb on ground* of Santiago hotel where aides io Pre,idem Ruth hare reiervatiomi.. sage or injuries were reported g*
Li *
Caflf Three FPMR memberi harlnto McDonald, reitaurant la
Santiago. Leaflets from thealestine Liberation Organisation flog and
note saying "Free Palestinian political prisoners" were left at ibe scent djf, ?
(SL) guerrilla, killund deitroy all eiulpmeat aad foetlltie, at exploration camp af Mobil in the upper Hmallaga Volley
detonate at lean four explonre drrice, Im Lima.American tmbatiiei. There -ere no injuries and
only minor damages in thej d) Jf
The Rcnlutionary Ara remote-control bomb im
Colombia: Tem-hiletram TNT exploilon in front of Medellin health club Injure fire per,on,otting vehicle agd cautei iiriour property damage. There has bttr. no claim of rctponiibilliy tM
Medellin. claim of respond bill 1
detonatet under occupied police vehicle in Lq[
There has been no
Tern FARC member, force crew and pajjeager, out of glome landingagar com Airport i'a UfOM nni let it ee3
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Original document.
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