MIDDLE EAST AREA BRIEF (DELETED) FOR THURSDAY 25 OCTOBER 1990

Created: 10/25/1990

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

SEGJ3ET

IT UNDOUBTEDLY HOPES FORM AIO TO OFFSET THE SANCTIONS ON THEH ECONOMY. THE REGIME PROBABLY CONTINUES TO BELIEVE IT CANNOT COMPLETELY SEAL THE BORDER WITHOUTOMESTIC BACKLASH.m

GULF ARABS FORGIVE EGYPTIAN DEBT

CULF 4RA8 STATE* DEBT OWED BY EGYPT! GESTURE BY SAUDI A*

o

u

0

M

S

s

X c

e: hi

BHUTTO'STr.iT YESTERDAYICT**tVOR Or TIEANTi-BHUTTO PARTIESCHANCES IOR VIOLENCE. BHUTTO CHARGED THAT VOTE 'RiUP KILL GIPAKISTAN PEOPLl'S PARTY (PPP) ONLY ABOUT SO SEATS OUT OFOTHERSELF LOST ONE OF TNE SEATS SHE WAS CONTESTING,

flEFl TS-1

ED TO PREDICT HOW THE PPP

13

fc. USSR-MIOOLE EAST: PRIMAKOV RETURNS

ESULT OF ONLYEATS FOR THE PPP SUGCESTSBEEN RIGGING. ALTHOUGH VOTER DISILLUSIONMENT WITHRECORD IN OFFICE MIGHT HAVEOOR PPPANY CASE'. IF BHUTTO'S COUNT IS ACCURATE, SHE FACES THEOF ACCEPTING THE ELECTION RESULTS ANO SITTING INBOYCOTTING THE NEW NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ANO POSSIBLY CALLINGAGAINST THE GOVERNMENT. SOME ELECT ION-RELATED VIOLENCEPPP IS LIKELY; IF IT BECOMES PRCLQNGEOqANO WIDESPREAD. IS ALMOST CERTAIN.

PRESIDENTIAL ENVOY PRIMAKOV ARRIVED UNEXPECTEDLY YESTEROAY AND TOLO THE EGYPTIAN^RESS THE OPPORTUNITIES FORSOLUTION TO THE GULF CRISIS HAVE NOT BEEN EXHAUSTEO.SAIO HIS TALKS IN BAGHOAO AND WESTERN CAPITALS HADRESULTS. PfliHAKOV PLANS.TO BRIEF MUBARAK OH THE TALKS ANO TRAVEL TQ DAMASCUS. BAGHOAO. ANO

ALTHOUGH PRIMAKOVOOL RECEPTION ON HISP TQ EUROPE. MOSCOW PROBABLY HOPES TALKS WITH KEY ARAB LEADERS OPPOSED TO IRAQ"ESPECIALLY IN EGYPT ANO SAUDI ARABIA-MAY ENCOURAGE THEM TO BE MORE OPENOLITICAL SOLUTION THAT WOULD LET SADDAM SAVE FACE. THE RECENT COMMENTS BY THE SAUDI OEFENSE MINISTER. INTERPRETED BY MANY AS RAISING THE POSSIBILITY OP CONCESSIONS TO IRAQ. MAY HAVE ENCOURAGED MOSCOW TO SENO PRIMAKOV OUT AGAIN HE MAY ALSO BE PREPARING GROUND FOR SOVIET MEDIATION IN THE EXPECTATION THAT SENTIMENTOMPROMISE WILL INCREASE AMONG COALITION PAHTHE-tS AS THE CRIS.S DRAGS, 3

S. IN BRIEF

AFRICA

YESTEROAY, CLAIMING WEST AFRICANS FAILED TO GUARANTEE BROADER

TRY I

BERIAN REBEL TAYLOR'S REPRESENTATIVES BROKE Of'CEASE-FIRE

ILEO TOBROADER PROBABLY TRYING TO BOLSTER

PARTICIPATION IN PEACEKEEPING FORCE

POSITION OF TAYLOR'S SUPPORTERS AT ECOWAS SUMMIT NEXT WEEK SOUTH ASIA

PARLIAMENT WILL CONSIOER NO-CONFIDENCEINGH LACKSWILL SEEKHOREBEFOREISSENT IN

A COMMISSIONED SKYLARK VERY-LOT-FREQUENCY TRANSMITTERILL EXPAND SUBMARINE OPERATING AREA TO ENTIRE INOIAN OCEAN. PHILIPPINE SEA. AREAS INOIA RECAPCS AS WITHIN ITS ECONOMIC

YRIA: OEALINGOST-AWN LEBANON

SYRIA HAS SOLIDIFIED ITS HOLO ON LEBANON BY TOPPLING GENERAL AWN PROBABLY CANNOT MOVE QUICKLY BUT TO DISMANTLE THE LEBANESE HILITIAS ANO PROBABLY WILL RESIST NEGOTIATING THE TERMS OF 'TS OWN WITHDRAWAL TO THE BEKAA VALLEY, BOTJj GF_VHICH_ARE CALLED FOR IN THE

speriET

TOT:

Z OCT 90

A'IF NATIONAL RECONCILIATION ACCORO.

THE SYRIANS ARE PLEASED WITH THE RESULTS Of THE OPERATION TO REMOVE AWN; THEIR COVERJtMENT-CONTROLlEO PRESS HAS BEEN TOUTINGOLE IN HIS DEFEAT, INTERNATIONAL REACTION TO AWN'S OUSTEA-GENERALLY MAS NOT BEEN HARSH. ALTHOUGH SOME CONCERN HAS STARTED TO SURFACE ABOUT SYRIAN INTENTIONS IN LEBANON NOW THAT AWN IS OUT. FOREIGN MINISTER SHARA TOLO US DIPLOMATS THAT SYRIA HAS EVIDENC JJijT^SADDAM HUSAYN IS OISMAYEO BY THE SUCCESS OF THE OPERATION.

ONE LESS LEVER

SYRIANS REGARDED AWN AS AN MINTYR:AN-BlI SSI IN LEBANON BUT ALSOACTICAL TOOL TO USE OTHERHEY DELIBERATELY PROLONGEDWITH RIVAL CHRISTIAN STRONGMAN SAMIR JAJA. FOR EXAMPLE. AWN WITH FUET'ANO AMMUNITION LAST SPRING ANO SUMMER. SYRIA'S INTERESTS BY WEAKENING THE LEBANESEABILITY TO DEFY DAMASCUS ANO CONTRIBUTING TOTO ACCEPT TA'IF AND.ACKNOWLEDGE- THE LEGITIMACY OF .'-

JUNBALTT. ANO SULAYMAN

LEBANON. THE SYRIANS CAN DRAW OS THESE ALLIES TO INF WHILE AVOIDING THE INTERNATIONAL CRITICISM THAT DIRE

SYRIA NONETHELESS RETAINS VARIED MEANS OF INFLUENCE OVER HARAWI'S GOVERNMENT. DAMASCUS HAS STRONG TIES TO AMAL LEADER NABlH BARRI. FORMER LEBANESE FORCES CHIEF EL I HUIAYQA. ORUZE LEADER VALID FRANJIEH. WHOSE FAMILY DOMINATES NORTHERN

LUENCE MARAWi.PRESSUR:

WOULD ATTRACT. DAMASCUSGAIN RESORT T& POLITICAL VIOLENCEONTROL ITS LEBANESE OPPONENTS. BUTlON MAS BECOME LESSYRIA HAS TRIED TO IMPROVE ITS INTERNATIONAL IMAGE flj

DISMANTLING THE MILITIAS: THE EASY PART IS OVER

AWN'S OUSTER HAS BROUGHT SYRIA CLOSER TO THE NEXT jPHASE OF THE TA'IF RECONCILIATION PLAN. DISMANTLING LEBANON'S HILlTlfS. WHOSE FRACT'OUSNESS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SYRIAN POWER IN THE COUNTRY. DAMASCUS ALREADY HAS ENCOURAGED ITS CLIENT MILITIAS T?

lEU MOVES

TO DISBAND THE MILITIAS WOULD BRING SYRIA INTOTOHILI CT WITH SOME OF ITS TRADITIONAL LEBANESE ALLIES. WHO WOULD NOT HAVE SIGNIFICAf, POLITICAL OR ECONOMIC CLOUT WITHOUT THEIR MILITIA FOLLOWING.

hI ZEALLAH: LESS MANAGEABLI

DISMANTLEMENT Of JAJA'S LEBANESE FORCES. SYRIA'S MOST VOCAL SURVIVING CHRISTIAN OPPONENT. PECIAL RROBlEn FOR DAfUSCUS. ALTHOUGH JAJA IS PUBLICLY COMMITTED TONO HARAWI HAS STATEO HIS WILLINGNESS TO GIVEABINET R(

SEpRET

SEpRllt

COWUHIQUE ISSUED LAST MONTH AFTER

"PRESIDENT ASAO VISITEirTEHRAN DID NOT REFER TO TV If. SUGGESTfUC

THERE WAS NO BREAKTHROUGH IN SYRIAN EFFORTS TO PERSUADE IRAN TOHIZBALLAH'S EFFORTS TO ESTABLISH AN ISLAMIC STATE SYRIA CONTROLS IRAN'S SUPPLY LINES TO HIZBALLAH ANO IHHAS HELO UP ARMS ANO OTHER SHIPMENTS. ASAD IS UNLIKELY TO

THIS AGAIN SOON BECAUSE HE WANTS TO AVOIO ALIENATING IRAN ANO TO ITEHRAN FIRMLY CPPOSEO TO

c :

M

V.

E

s s

PROBABLY WILL NOT RAISE' THE ISSUE OF OISBANDING HIZBALLAH WITH IRANIAN FOREIGN MINISTER VELAYATI IN DAMASCUS THIS WEEK. ASAD INSTEAO IS LIKELY TO FOCUS ON ENDING THE FIGHTING BETWEEN HIZ9ALLAH ANO AMAL AND TO OISCUSS THE ROLE HE ENVISAONS THE SHIAS MIGHT PLA>^_

LEBAf-

RAN SHOULDTHE NEW LEBANESE POLITICAL SYSTEM.!

OTHER

LEBANON IS LIKELY TOACK SEAT TO THE GULF CRISISREGIONAL CALCULATIONS IN THE NEAR TERM. OAMASCUS MAY LETLEAGUE TOORE VISIBLE ROLE IN SUPPORTING THEAS EVIDENCED BY POSSIBLE MOROCCAN AND ALGERIAN PLANSTROOPS TO BEIRUT. THE SYRIANS. PRCBA9LY BELIEVE THAT THELL NOT SERIOUSLY PUSH O

IMMEDIATELY HONOR ITS TA'IFINCLUOE FACILITATING THE DISMANTLING OF THE MILITIAS AND NEGOTIATING ITS OWN WITHDRAWAL TO THE BEKAA VALLEY WITH THE LEBANESETHEY, SYRIA'S MILITARY ANO POLITICAL SUPPORT AGAINST IRAQ. -

NTERNATIONAL: SUPPLIES OF OIL PRODUCTS VULNERABLE

ALTHOUGH THE LOSS TO WORLD MARKETS OF KUWAITI ANO IRAQI REFINERIES WILL KEEP UPWARD PRESSURE ON PRICES. PARTICULARLY OF JET FUEL AND KEROSENE. THE WORLD REFINING SYSTEM PROBABLY HAS THE FLEXIBILITY TO SATISFY EXPECTED OEMAHO FOR ALL OIL PRODUCTS OVER THE

NEXT YEAR. NEVERTHELESS. SUPPLIES REMAIN VULNERABLE BECAUSE

REFINERIES ARE OPERATING AT NEAR CAPACITY ANO MANY AREMAINTENANCE. EVEN IF THE REFINERIES CAN MAINTAIN SHORTAGES OF QNEOR ANOTHER OIL PROIU1CT ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EVERAL

UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT CRUDE OIL SUPPLY ANO THE LOSS OF OF REFINED PROOUCT FROM THE PERSIAN GULF ARE STRAININGSYSTEM. NOT ONLY ARE CRUDE OIL SUPPLIES LIKELY TOLOWER OVER THE NEXT YEAR. BUT THEREATER PROPORTION OF HEAVIER OIL. MOREOVER, THE PRODUCTS FROM^

AYITIONAL REFINED PRODUCTS'. REFINERIES WILL HAVE MORE OIFFICULTY PRO0UCINGJ.IGHT PRODUCTS. WHICH MADE UP ABOUTERCENT OFIF PRODUCT OEMANDEO IN NON-COMMUNlST NATIONS LAST YEAR.

THE WORLO REFINING SYSTEM COULD RESPOND TO THESE CHALLENGES IN. TWO WAYS:

F SPARE PRIMARY PRESSING CAPACITY IS AVAILABLE AT NUMEROUS REFINERJ ES_E_ WORLD. MUCH OF THIS

0

u

0

K E

u T

e

CC7 TCTiCZ OCT 90

CAPACITT IS IIHCL* TO BE TAPPED. ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN EUROPE, BUT IT WILL NOT PRODUCE ENOUGH1 LIGHT PRODUCTS TO MEET WORLD DEMAND.

CONVERSION CAPACITY TO TRANSFORM HEAVY PRODUCTS INTO LIGHTER ONES CAN BE USED TO INCREASE SUPPLIES Of LIGHT PROCuCTS- THE UTiilZATIOK Of CONVERSION CAPACITY WORLOWIOl PROBABLE

will rise to abqutjq percent, which c* Jys alnnual basis is closcto full capacr MM

NO KEROSENE

. BARRING FURTHER IN CRUDE SUPPLIES OR REFINERY OPERATIONS OR UNEAPECTEO INCREASES IN DEMAND. PRODUCT SUPPLIES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT OVER THE NEAT YEAR. CLHE AVAILABILITY OF JET FUEL AHD KEROSENE WILL FORCE THOSE PRICESINCE THI INVASION. PRICES FOR THOSE FUELS HAVE RISEN MUCH FASTER THAN PRICES FOR OTHER OH PRODUCTS. THE WHOLESALE PRICE FOR KEROSENE ANO JET FUEL IK ROTTERDAM INCREASED FROMALLON Ik LATE JUIY TO OVERN LATE OCTOBER. DURING THE SAME PERIOD.EASOLINE ROSE FROMENTS1 PER CAUOk. AND HOnE HEATING Oil. RCSE FROM S . .

THE KUWAITI REFINERIES WERE SET UP TO SUPPLY LARCE QUANTITIES OF JET FUEL ANO KEROSENE. AKC OTHER REFINERIES WJLL BE HARD PRESSED To MAKE UP THE SHORTFALL. ALTHOUGHWAITI REFINERIES SnOJLP. PROOUCE f THESE TWOTO MEET PCSTihViSiOK CEMAKO AT HIGHER PRlCES--PRICi

ffectiruike industr* an:;

IK ASIA. WHERE KERCSCKI US itOOK-MS thZ Hlt'iKS.

L 1

C

c

!

^

I"

* -

< E

PRESSURE RflIHIRII

IK

I.

TV.

TC

0*

CRVOE OIL PRICES0 PER BARRELYEAR. HOSTILITIESHE CULF REG'RACE PRICES PRODUCTS FOR THE "EAR PROBAELJ Vjj. tiOCENTS v M

CRUDE.

PRODUCT SUPPLIES MILL BE EVEN TiGHTER--CAUSIKG MUC" hIShMAJOR CRUDE OH OR RUINING DISRUPTIONS OCCUR 'OR SUSTAINED PERIODS ASESULT OF ACCIDENTS. TECHNICAL fAILUP.E

' i'UNIHG AT

LA BCP. STRIKES. SAIOTACE.AR DAMAGE PROOUCTION AhO REFINING SYSTEM WILL BE LEAVING VIRTUALLY NO CUSHION TO OFFSITEFINERY DISRUPTION. LOi 'OH nAVY REASONS. INCiU?iNG SAPS" WIATi HOLD DOW "A'CES. ATTESTS TOROGyTT WOULD TIGHTEN SUPPLIES PRICES.

siLtrret sit. products an? their use:

nOTOR GASOLINE IGHT PRODUCT THAT CITURI OF VOLA'IlE HYDROCARBONS iKT'.tfDEO TO FUELK ENGINES.

T

33

rot:

OC"

.NAPHTHA IS ANOTHER LIGHT PRODUCT WITH DIFFERENT GRADES USED AS PETROCHEMICAL 'ItOSTOCKS: IN MILITARY TUR08JET AND TURBOPROP AIRCRAFT ENGINES: ANC AS PAINT TMHINERS. CLEANERS. AHO SOLVENTS.

U'ROSENf ELATIVELY LIGHT PRODUCT USED IN SPACE

COOKING STOVES. WATER HEATERS. ANO WICK LAMPSi SOME GRADES ARE

INTENOEO FOR COMMERCI AL AND MILITARY

DISTILLATE FUEL OILENERAL CLASSIFICATION AT THE HEAVIER EMO OF LIGHT PRQOUCTS THAT INCLUDES FUEL OIL FOR OOMESTIC HEATING OR LIGHT INDUSTRY USES AND DIESEL ENGINE FUEL FOR ON- AMDVSKICISS.ILROAO ENGINES ANOCHIVERY.

UAL FUEL Oil 'SVY PROOUCT ANO INCLUDES HEAVYAT REM IN SfTttDISTILLATE FUEL OILS AND LIGHTER HYDROCARBONS ARE

IT IS USEO IN STEAH-PGWIREO LECTRIC POWER

3ISTILLEO AWAY IH WINERY OPERATIDkS VESSELS. COMMERCIAL ANO INDUSTRIAL HEAT GENERATION

SEGBET

Original document.

---

---