Terrorism Review
Warning Page
Review]
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afOMaf'Saf hdad ii most likely io play (be terrorist Vard ia Ihc
ofostilities in ibe Fenian Gulf.There isrowing danger of freelance anacks by radical Islamic and Palestinian groups inflamed by ibe GulfBsatss*
Hirrhtn^aaak
The Pflilippints; SiitnirVrinl Thrni to American
US-Philippine base ocavtiaiioni. tcnuti-cly set for mid-September, will probably occasion icrroriii action by lhe Communist New People's Army, which wants to drirc ibe Uniied Stateslanned NPA ntlemive igair.st President Aquino's governmenioup pletting againsi her could deepen ibe threat to Americans, i
ile only one of
Bolivia's ndioalleftisi groups is known to have conducted attack) so far. others will probably turn to violence as ihey gain adherents. US interests ire likely urgeujosswassst..
The Terrorism DUry for Oelobe
Chronology
ThU reviewublished biweekly by Iht Directorate of InttV.latntt Other elemmtt of tbes well a, other ogrmiei of the US tmellige>ue Communityelcome andirected tonrrutire I
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Terrorism
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bbbMIW firrartsi Optic*
I Meanwhile. Wciiern and moderate Arab facilities and personnel worldwide have received numerous (breau o! retaliation for the deployment of US forces to Saudi Arabia and the Persian'ry^J
1 action and the intervention of US force* bat prompted hardline Palestinian groups, to Saddam, tending additional impetus for freelance lerrorist attacks by these groups- Radical fervor among Palestinian groups is likely to outlast tbe current crisis. Even If Saddam is defeated, many Palestinians will view him as the only Arab leader wilting to stand up to the United Suits and Israel in defense of Arab tnterestsasJJfltut
Saddamt allegation that tbe introduction of US miliiary forces into ihe Middle East has denied thc birthplace of thc Prophet could give rise to potentialteiroritis. Radical Palestinian and Islamic fundamentalist leaders are also calling for Arab* to attack Western and moderate Arab tara
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A variety of means etc available for potential attacks. Radical Palestinian Iroups supported by Iraq haveide array of capabilities in Europe and the Middle East andistory of carrying out assassinations, airline hijackings, airport attacks, bombings, seaborne operations, and cross-border infihriiioiu.uSJJJMJj
Outlook
A military confrontation in the Gulf would almost certainly trigger an outbreak of terrorism againsi US and allied stales. In the eventimited US military action perceived as provocative bydisabling of an oil laaker, forjudge Saddam would be more tikeiy lo respond with terrorism than with conventional miliiary means, which he would fear could drag himar he probably wants to avoid. In an all-out war. Saddam would be likely to use all means at his disposal to wreak havoc on Ihc United States, and his Client groups would be eager to act. MM*
In the absencehooting war. Saddam is likely to keep the terrorist option In reserve while international diplomatic initiatives play out. He probably calculates that terrorist attacks at this point ia the crisis would only strengthen international sentiment against him and could be used by the United States and its allies tomilitary host:!
An attackesternrobably it incs-iuBtt -hciheMraq authorises
protest the|
support provided by moderate Arab nations. Radical Palestinian groups may cenflues.n7 ume Termini trouot no. motored b, Iraq ntsMkaaMavmay exploit anti-US sentiment to attack US interests In addition. Westerners will be vulnerable to sporadic violence By pro-Iraqi sympathizers throughout the Middle East, tfttt
to
Highlights i
Signifi :an! De-fk |i: lent!
Cast Iran-Iieland
Kecnan's ReleaseVictorys.nj.ni
The release of Irish hostage Brian Kecnin oaugustictory forRafsanjani's efforts lo resolve the problem of lbc hostages inio improve economic relations with lheeirut group calling itselffor
releasing Ketnsr- -liou:ceci finrr. West Beirut in Aprilinnounccmcnt an the day of Keenan's release that it smuld send its Agricultural Minister to Tehran ioSt million beef sale satisfied Tehran's demands for 'rsKiprecal gocelwill'a^aBas,
The hostages haveajor obstacle to ending Iran's international notation and attracting foreign Investment. Rafsanjani's ability to get them released, however, has depended on demonstrating to Iranian hardliners that It can belnt tangible
thai "thc situation of European hostages can beUS hostages Is probably meant to enticeother European countries toIrish
ofawa 15
According io press reports, the chaos su>-ounding in* Iraqi invasion of Kuwaitugust resulted in ihe clan of IS ShiaDawa Ihad been imprisoned in Kuwaithe Dawa were arrettedtele* or lerrorist attacks against the US and French Embassies sod various Kuwaiti installatiom. Since Ihc, Ihe Islamic Jihad Organiiationed by Imad Mughnivah. has abducted Western citizens and orchestrated severallo secure lhe release of sbe Dawa. The fate of the5 has been repeatedly linked lo the freedom of Western hostage held by the IJO. We believe tbe IJO eo*ds US hostages Terry Anderson andherland us well as British citizen*te and John McCarthy FrankS hostage released on iO April, and Anglo-Irish hostage Brian Keenan, released onugust, were also held by thc IJO. Although the escape of the Dawaey obstacle lo the release of some Western hostages in Lebanon.believe Mughmyah will probably continue to use them as bargaining chips for Lebanese and Paleitlniin prisoners in Israel and Western Europe andeasure of protection against military strikes on Hiiballah facilities tpj^f
Chins To Mold lliSRins' Kidnapper
ews conferenceugust in Tyre. Amal leaders announced Ihey had charged si*Imad Mdeihli. reportedly involved in the kidnap-pmg of CoJonclvarious lerrorist acts. Amal claims Ihe accused eoofessed lo Ibe crimes and admitted their involvement with Hizballah and ihe Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Hliballaa publicly denied the allegations and warned that anyone who harmed the suspects would be "mercilesslyu|
By publicizing the arrest of Hltballah terrorists. Amal Is trying to bolster its credentials io Ihc West as the legitimate ind responsible representative of
merica
Terrorist Tmiw to US Interests
The killing onugust of two Peruvian missionaries of the Mormon Church in Huancayoilometers cast of Lima, may portend lerrorist attacks on US and other foreign interests inandwrittenleft near the bodies demanded ihat all "Yankee invaders" leave Peru. Numerous car bombs exploded the same week, mostly in Lima, including one that injured the wife and daughter
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33S
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Bolivian Terrorbm: Tool of Ihc'
in Bolivia, already sporadic andhard hilling, probably -ill increase as lhe economy coniim.es to stagnate. US itweresi* are likelye attractive targets, especiallyai pusheswith its fledgling US.baeked anlinarcoticsThe Fueeias Armadas de Liberacion Zarale Willka organisation, which espouses terrorism to rid Bolivia ofis cur. rently tbe best organiied subversive group, allhough it has suffered some setbacks with tbc death of one key member aad arrests ofew other indigenous leftistveryf)^armed resistance, and theywill have some success finding newhese group* include Ayllu*ndependientes dend the Comite Jea Revolucion Peruana en Bolivia
thc attack wastcsi of Yankee imperialism and Bolivian economic policy. Subsequent bombings al Bolivian Government buildings69 have condemned thc economic polieies of lhe government, wiih the perpetrators calling for wage increases, jobs, and Other popular welfarek^ ^
Tbeook al lb* Lefriil Croon Faeriaiiarair Willka.Willka is an urban-based. Marxist-Leninist Org*-nil* (ion f
Th* Polilie* of Poverty
Bolivia it (he poorest country in South America and its economic history has been an important factor in (he development of leftist terrorist orjiniiitrooseconomic deterioration0) was of such magnitude that inflation reachedTOO perceni annually. President Pal tsienssore who took officeJ. instituted an auSlcrily program thai reduced annual inflation lo betweennder-cent5llhough bis successor. Paa Zamora. has retained most of Esunssoro'spolicies since taking officehctagnated.)
Several terroristhe pasi few year* illustrate Ihc relation bcl-ecn these economicand terrorism in Bolivia. Thc nasi incident claimed by Zaralebomb al ihe Bolivian Ministry of Mines inall to lhc local radio nation eipiaining mil
-
*
Ovdee*
Tcrrorisi organizations will paw an increasinglyihreai in Bolivia over the neii several years. Since lhe leftist terrorist organisations ate ico small
inull-scale insutee ne) and too weakeaningful rote in national polities. they are likely to use terrorist tactics and propaganda to build theii organisations. Alihough only Zarste Willk* itable to go much beyond demonstrations and propaganda distribution, conditions may be ripe Cor membership In other terrorist groups to grow.economic hardship Is likely to Increase interest in armed resistance lo thever nment. and ihc poor showing of leftist panics in recent elections may cause some activists, disenchanted wiih legitimate political activities, to turn to leftistroups lhal approve the use of terrorismolitical
With the growth or terrorist groups. LS interests in Bolivia are likely to be increasingly attractive tar-
|official US Government facilities.
I AS the US-baeked aniinarcotics program develops and as La Par reaches out for badly needed foreign investment, the terrorist ceganitation? will probably increase activitics designed to rid Bolivia of foreign especially
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The Terrorism Diary for
Belowompendium of October deles of known or conceivable significanceerrorist! atound the world. Our inclusionate or mat should not by lltelf be construed to suggest that we expect orommemorative terroriit
I OctoberGeneralissimo Franco assumes power.
/ OctoberNalional Day (Communistt National.si iMces).
/ OctoberIndependence Day.
Indonesia. Pancasila Day (eelebratci Appoint national ideology).
Nigeria. IndependenceOctoberRepublic Day.
/ OctoberIsrael, nnd Palestinians. Israeli bombing of PLO headquarter* in Tunis.
1 OctoberIndependence Day (proclamation of republic).
1 OctoberIndependence Day.
1 OctoberProclamation of republic
v OctoberArmed Force* Day (commemorate* October War with Israel).
Israel and Arab world, Arab-IsraeliOctoberMiliiary coup aeainsi civilian rule: police storm Thammaiat University.
OctoberAssassination of President Anwar Sadai.
Founding of Communbt Party (usually marked by Scndero Luminoso
attacks).
7 OctoberGermany. Republic Day.
7 OctoberIndependence Day.
OctoberFascist Evacuation Day (departure of last Italian settler*)
OctoberBirthday oT Juan Peron.
t
Cuba. Heroic Guerrilla Day (death of Che Guevara in Bolivn).
Indeoenoenee Day.
Aanivertary of reveautiem that led to founding of Republic of Chine
Iflnotpendrnce Day
Oe it-be-SoJumtor. Found tag ofam National Ubemboa Front (FMLIS1
Afrit*Day of SoMarny With South African Political
ctoberUprising Day (anniversary of rounding of Mieedoniankouday In Socialist Republic of Macedonia)
ConililulOa Day
ctoberrimer. Aisaiunation of Prctidant Cot. Ibrahim Mohammed el Hamadi.
II Oeiob.rMovement of Revolutionary Lefl|MIR) foundod
ctoberGuinea. Independence Day
It OctoberBirthday of President Mobutu Sete Seko.
fe* OctoberProd* ma no* of republic
ctoberYemen. Inekpmdrnee Day.
ctoberot military dictatorship and rrturn io civiliaa rule.
Germoe, RcieaVtkmary Cell* born*economic urpa io ootnmemortte
tixu-.es c< Andrcai tudtr and Giadrun Eaoalin.
National Day
Oeroberladepcndcnca Day.
OctoberInternational Antiwar Day.
ctoberAnniversary of revolution lhal brought Siad Barre to power.
eroberBeginning of connon of Nariia ailpuri (usually marked byayirational-
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Revolt ssaintt Soviet occupation.
Egypt. Popular Resistance Day: Suez Day.
IndependenceOctoberUS inierverilion.
ayan post-World Warccupation forces).
OctoberIndependence Day.
Nationalserved by Greek Cypriot community!
OctoberSocialist octoty in federal election.
OctobirIndependence Day (proclamation of rcpubtic).
ctoberTurkish Republic Day (observed by Turkish Cypcloi community).
IIIn late October and November, lerrorrst activities by (be seftwing group
Dcv Yet Have been more numerous (ban in other months: attacks2) appear to have been made in protesteferendum and an election during November of thou years.
Jl OctoberAsiaon of Prime Minuter Indira Gandhi by her Sikh bodyguards,
triggeringn iSou throughout northern India.
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-Irrnr ItSSl
Chronology of,
are described selected noteworthyloreign and iiuernational erenlswottii of the use of terrorist forrin Tirir events have oceu-red or come to .'f fate erne last issue. Imsome eases, the perpetrator, amd iheir avottuaiions ma, mat he kno-nand drveiaaemaaus that hawe already beta described elsewhere In this publication art not Included ff/f. ^
i Li."
Turkey: Missile attack on ircwrlty building aad ladging fatllillet In MaradiyeInetnee lajaret one person. Tbe Six let feral* also ter tut to tte primary tchoal 00 Lp*}>
inl tenantatdier art hilled by teeraeiit gunfire during
an hates In Yeniyaii village.^,>
Germany: Fire and acid allaek dnmnget eur jaeiaeyupmaetat. RAF
lympalhiien are loipccted ja^
Spain: The fataut Fatherland and Uberty (ETA) deianain four devices,nduguu. along Spanish rail
Spain- Car bomb eiplades as eeatral polite Italian ia Burgao. tn/unngenans.tvottssUl rrs.-roai.Sk kfft ^
Inland: Bomb eiplodei al taal'uetoe work area in Costladerg. injuring one person. HRA claimedt
Franre Bambi eiplode at two separate Internal Kerenue affUes in Soint^Palais aad Haiparren.arr-darn* icrroriii (roup daimod reapcmiiniliiy.tjjbj &
Turkey Ttrrariti,Sit net If Dr'le merle nutunrterl im
t Omrrli 'twin kiltiag oneWii] aaaebet. tM
Turkey:ciptedr, at doat af Spaairk Consulate inif nine eel made no claim of reepo-ruibility.
4 Augnlt
It 4
ui
o.aatkatiabbrd ta Jtemalem aa Ut.
Lebaaam: Sanaa tipladei ia taw an Hnmin Al-famaaA read
atsiengeet ftm
llnait
Pern: Scndero Lnmmoia detonate bambic Presidential Palate and in C'nrte nroi an army building. One person wo kilted and (cerai injured.
Chile: Unidentified trrrtrriitt detenu bomb,itibank office ia Mitafiorri section of Santiago andeller maeaiae in tke Lai Caadet section injuring
ugntt
Sri Lanka: Liberation Tigerl af Tamil [elam kidnap local prirttrrep tenraed
Samtk Korea: Radical undent, thee-tkau iOfiatbeaabi ai back deer af US military effice ia domatamn Stoat, cauuag miner
Original document.
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