IMrJl IOsKCE AGHiCY
Initial Alienments in theof Bar
he problon presented assumes the outbreakeneral vtar4 and requires an estimate of initial ulignocnte in that evint, without reference to subsequent developments.
A general ear4 ia conceivable only es the result cf Soviet military aggression.
Soviet Satellite States.
Inar the USSR,atter of course, would be supported by the Soviet satellite states: Poland, nast Gemany, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Rumania, Bulgaria, Albania, Outer Mongolia, and North Korea.
Although; Coaounist China has atreater capability fordependent. action than the satellite states listed; above, it is .firmly allied aith tha USSR and would support the 'USSRJln! the7 even^ofcaor. Long4 Uie Communist rogirce bill improbably- have gained, control of all Chinese territory non beyond its control: -Tibet,Hainan, and Taiwan.
Tho Vietnamese insurgonta are predominantly nationalists rather than Communists, but Communist leadership of the movement is firmly established. Apart fron this consideration, tho inaurgenta' alignment uith the USSR in the event of ear uould ba an automatic conaequence of their actual hostilities with France. These insurgents have long controlled most of the intorior of Vietnam. 41 probably have gained control of rcost. If not all, of Indochina.
Note: Thi3 rrrwrandum has not been coordinated rsith the intelligence organizations of the Departments of SttefaBptArSpt tlary, und -the-
AII.IED AND ASSOCIATED PCJsRS
Worth Atlantic Treaty.
The nations allied by tho North Atlantic Treatythe United States, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Denmark, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxemburg, France, Italy, and Portugalmould honor their connitmonts in the event of war.
Except for Indochina (seohe overseas territories of the North Atlantic Treaty powers aro reasonably secure, although CoMounist guerrilla activity continues In Ualaya and there is acne unrest in French North Africa, British Heat Africa, Cyprus, :tadagascar, and Hong Kong. Unrest may develop in Italian Somallland mhen the Italians return to that area.
Recipients of US military Aid.
As recipients of US military aid, Greece, Turkey, Iran, Korea, ond the Philippines lock to tho Unitod States for support and protection sgalnst Soviet military aggression. None, however, mould be milling to take action in behalf of the United States deemed likely to provoke-an othorwlao avoidable Soviet attack upon itself. Thus, if tho USSR ohose to direct its offensive effort elsewhere, each would, be disposed to remain non-bolligerent In all probability, however, each (except possibly the Philippines) would be attacked immediately on the outbreak of war, in which case each would defend itself as best it could while calilngtfor US aid.
Members of the British Connonwealth.
- -iai.iJ - Although the other commonwealth governments are not committed by the.
adherence of the United Kingdom and Canada to the north Atlantic Treaty,
it is probable that South Africa, Ceylon, Australia, and New Zealand would
render prompt belligerent suprort In the event of Soviet aggression. (India
and Pakistan, however, would probably remain Initially neutral.)
9- British Arab Allies.
The British treaties of alliance with Egypt, Jordan, and Iraq would be operative in the assumed circumstances. Egypt and Iraq havo ohown in theisposition to repudiate this alliance, but in any oase the British would utilise their bases and forces actually in those countries as the occasion required, and it is probable that the Egyptian and Iraqiwould render at least passive support. There is no question about
Jordan, which io dependent on the British for its existence.
It is probableimilar treaty relationship nill be established between Great Britain and Libya coincident with the independence of that country.
Ethiopia, and Saudi Arabia.
Existing arrangements with Liberia mould assure US use of air base and port facilities in that country. Similar Ethiopian cooperation would probably be available, although the situation is les3 definite. Ibn Sand would expect the United States to defend Dhahran and would do what he could to cooperate.
Other American Republics.
The other American republics mould be aligned with the United States in various degrees of effective cooperation.
Continued Western military occupation of bestem Germany, western Austria, Trieste, Eritrea, and Japan would assure at least initial western control of those areas.
The Finnish people are stubbornly anti-Soviot, but Finland is in no position to defy the USSR. In the circumstances the Finnish Government, without repudiating the Soviet-Finnish treaty of mutual assistance, would seek to remain neutral, or at least to avoid Soviet occupation of Finnish territory. If Soviot forces entered Finland without express permission, tho Finns would fight.
IA,. Sweden and Switzerland.
Both countries are ideologically anti-Soviot, but both clingraditional neutrality in hope of avoiding Soviot attack. If attacked, both-would resist to their utmost ability.
The Irish Republic is stronrly anti-Soviet in sentiment, but disposed to Make the cession of Northernrecondition to any formal alliance with the Atlantic Powers.
The Franco regime is conspicuously anti-Soviet, but is ideologically unacceptable to Western lurope. In tho event of war Spain might seise the opportunity to escape from isolation into defensive alliance with the Atlantic poners, hut would probably renainunless attacked.
The Tito regine is anathema to the USSR, which is actively sseking Its overthrow by nieans short of war. Atme time, ideological considerations provont it3 open alliance with the West. So far aa concerns its own volition, these considerations wouldolicy of neutrality in the event of war. If attacked, however, the Yugoslavs wouldtubborn resistance.
Israel's position is one of deliberate neutrality between tho Bast and IVest. Western tios are actually predominant, however, and, if compelled to take sides, Israel would align itself with tho Wsst.
These states aro too weak to act with decision in international relations. They could be pressed into passive alignment with the tfest.
In dangerous proximity to the OSSR and remote from succor,. j'* Afghanistan would remain neutral unless attacked.
Pakistan would be indisposed to take any action deemed likely to provoke an otherwise avoidable Soviet attack. If threatened or attacked, however, Pakistan would resist and would expectsupport,
At present itoint of policy with India toosition of neutralityt and West. Although there is some internal pressure for closer association with the IVest, India would probably remain initially neutral in the event of war. If threatened or attacked, however, India mould resist and ftould expect Western support..
In ite present anarchical condition. Bursa uould ba incapable of taking effective part on either side. If the government sould regain control, aith Western aid, it sould presumably honor passively ita military comndtnients to Groat Britain. If the Connunists should gain the ascendancy, their position sould be too precarious and exposed to permit them to provoke Western intervention aith impunity.
Its passive alignment mould be determined by theny case, it viould be unlikely to becoeis an active belligerent,
Indonesian policy is likely to parallel that of India, for similar reasons rather than because of Indian influence.Original document.