PROBABLE EFFECT OF THE MAY YOUTH RALLY IN BERLIN

Created: 3/3/1950

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

CEHTRAX DiTELLIOSiCE AOEHCT

DfTELLIQEHCE HtlSORAKDUy0

SUBJECT j Probable Effect of tho Hay Xouth Rally An Berlin

Tho current Soviet effort to undermine tho position of the Western Powers inIn Soviet interference with German traffic to and from Berlin and in intensified "Rational Front"bo continued in too announced Free German Tooth (FDJ) rally in Berlinay. According to Esst German Ccaaiunist officials, the rally will include moreouths, representing the East end 'Pest sectors of Germany, the USSR, tha Satellites, China, France, Italy, and toe DS. Bepcrtedly, the FDJ plans toilitant group0 to counter expected resistance in tho Western sectors.

Through theally, the DSSR will attack the "aggroae-ivm" plans of tho Western Powers in Germany while portraying the USSR as the sole champion of peace snd German unity. Designed to appeal to the martial spirit of German youth, the rally has the further purpose of attempting to encourage Gorman youth to support the East German Republic (DDR). Tho proposed FDJ slogans clearly reveal the Kremlin's continuing propaganda efforts to. enhance ;the prestige of the GDR and advance ths "Rationalhwughort'O^

erlin, now proclaimed; by liational -Front propaganda, asof the "united Germany" which the. Front nishee to activate, is an obvious target fornspired disturbances. In Berlin, the USSR is seeking to weaken the West sector economy and the resistance of West Berliners to Cdamuniot intimidation.DJ propaganda willpresent uncertainties with respect to unemployment andeconomic proapecta in the Western sectors of the city.

U. Despite tbe pacifist slogans which the German Communlsto will bear as they enter tbe West sort ore, the East Communists are likely to provoke violence with the Weat sector police force and, if possible, with Western military units. Tho FDJ rally will probablyelegation from ths East German paramilitary police, though

MOTEi This moBorar^um'has not been coordinated with the Intelligence organisations of tha Oaparttents of State, Army. Navy, and Air-Document r

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these police nay not appear In armod military formations. Use of armed or motorised paramilitary unite would obviously increase prospects far violenceerious scale.

5. FDJ-instigated violence, regardless of its intensity, would not directly Involve Uie USSR, would serverobing operation to teat Western reaction to violence ln Berlin, and would have tho advantage of providing the East Geraann with martyrs. (Somais possible, although thla would not ba aprixory elm of theoviet move to seize Berlin through the FDJ le not likely for the following reasons: (a)H probablyua attempt to seize and hold tha city would bo unsocoeesfnl without direct Soviet troop aeslstzncoj and (b) tbe USSR isolicy of gradual attrition with respect to Western rower occupation of Berlin.

Original document.

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