THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EARLY MAJOR VIET MINH ATTACH IN INDOCHINA

Created: 3/14/1951

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

SEN

&FICX OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES

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APPROVED FOR RELEASE CENTRAL IBIELLIGENCE AOEHCT

date: 5

1

HMJRAJUJuM OF TJlFffiiKATIOP HO.CRi National Eatinatea Board

SuBJECTi Ihe Possibility of an Early Major Viet Minh Attack In Indochina

I "Potm Ol" *man dKHslcn and plan to attackIM Wjgniitwmndaroh.

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stated. It was confirmed Ty Viet rash troop BovenentsIA haa received independently, tot original bonree, sloUar detallo of on alleged Viet raAplan toajor attack betweenndarch. In the pastweoke, CIA haa also received nuoeroua less specific reporta from sources of unknown reliability to the effectiet Hinh offensive la expected "seen*.

Field reports arc incertain,!

Although these reports cannot be conolderod conclusive. It ishat the Yiet Minh will attaspt another attack In TonSdx before the Hay acasoona and before the French position can be strengthened by tho arrival Integration of French reinfbroenents end additional US eqabnaat. inattack, however, would depend oa the state of Viet Hinh allitary Viet Minh strength haa increased in tonkin by0 ad the current disposition of Viot Minh forces would perait tho attacks whichto be planned with littlenovenent of troops. It would appear, therefore, that the Governing factor in the thainpiet Binh attack will be tho extent to which the Viet I'dnh has orerooBer^ QdneBe assistance, shortages

TJiat delivery of artxiiwiy nan xaggect. ror zmo reason, operations cannot ba^ln beforrarch,,

In essential equipment, particularly artil-icnfllct on the extent of actual delivery of

r th0 0aee ToT ow afield reports continue tointervention offorces ia lirmlnent. Some weight has been addedpossibilitywhich accepts the presence of

JOtTOO Chinese CeDDunist regulara in Tonkin. CIA has alsoeport ZrcB an untested course with claimed access to the Vict Minh Connand statins

* yAnh attaok TonWnbe supported

COOChlneea Conrandet regulars now in Tonkin and by navel end air units baaed on Hainan. Bumtous cither reports do not mention pcxtieipatlon of

K that

refular OxSummm foreaa butPeiping baa agnail to organise and arm voltm-taar unite to aid Viet Wnb troops. One auoh report atatea that Palplng haa ordered tho aseaUbUag end amlng of alx re^lmants near tha Indoofalna border oy the end of February for thaand Irrfbchlnas* Voluntew Corpe*'

will not send troop* to

doee not accept the presence of any Chlncee "fairly sure" that thetho Mar* Viet Hinhwith tha

the Chinee* nitfrtnited bumpWurteer- troopa and If thla rati with aooa sueoess (poaelble aeaning If it did not craw strong OSay night than follow through with full-Male participation. At the sane tiae!

rwpa willroopa do not Intervene,Indochina olidw

that Viet lUnh and Chinese Ckaranirt repreoantetivec have agreed thatforoaa will not invade Indochina -for the

hopeepiilaing tbe Viet Jflnb attack with the forces believed there is even the poseibllity of bo Daullnjr

in Tonkin without the aid of Chinese Conaoniat troopa.

Original document.

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