ANALYSIS OF IRANIAN POLITICAL SITUATION

Created: 10/12/1951

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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ANALYSTS OF IRANIAN POLITICAL SITUATION

(IT IS SPECIFICALLY REQUESTED THAT NO DISTRIBUTION OF THIS REPORT BE MADE OUTSIDE OF THE AGENCY.)

1. BACKGROUND.

A. XENOPHOBIA. IRAN NOW IS ANTI-WESTERN BUT IS VIOLENT ONLY IN ITS MANIFESTATION AGAINST THE BRITISH BECAUSE THEIR PRESENCE IN IRAN UP TO THIS TIME HAS BEEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL THAN THE PRESENCE OF ANY OTHER WESTERNERS (FOR EXAMPLE, THE ANGLO-IRANIAN OIL COMPANY,ANK AND BUSINESS FIRMS BACKEDONG HISTORY OF BRITISH INTERESTS TN IRAN). MOSSADSJ CAME TO POWERAVE OF XENOPHOBIA, THE FORERUNNER OF WHICH WAS THE ANTT-RAZMARA AND ANM- COURT MOVEMENT (RAZMARA AND THE SHAH DESCRIBED AS SERVANTS OF THE BRITISi). IP THE UNITED STATES SIOULD CONTINUE TO SIDE SPECTACULARLY WITH THE BRITISH (FOR EXAMPLE, HARRIVAN'S REFUSAL TO PASS TO THEOSSADEQ'SND THE POSTPONEMENT OFXPORT-IMPORT BANKHE BRUNT OF ANTI-WESTERN KEELING COULD EASILY COVER THE UNITED STATES A3 HELL AS GREAT BRITAIN.

OF THE STREETS. THE VOSSADEti GOVERNMENT IS THETHE "STREETS." THE "STREETS" ARE COMPOSED OF TWO VAIN GROUPS I OFKA9IANI AND THE TUDEH PARTY (WITH SATELLITE FRONTS),WHICH ARE EXPLOITING TO THEAVE OF GENUINE NATIONALISTICA BROAD SECTION OF THE UPPER MIDDLE CLASS. ALTHOUGH KASIANI'S FOLLOWINGMORE NUMEROUS THAN.THAT OF THE TUDEH, THE FORMER HAS NEITHERDISCIPLINE, NOR REVOLUTIONARY AND CONSPIRATORIAL TRAININGOP THE LATTER. ACCORDINGLY, OF THE TWO THE MORE POWERFULTHE TUDEH PARTY.

TRADITIONAL IRANIAN POLICY IS TO MAINTAIN THE BALANCE OFTHE SOVIET UNION AND GREAT BRITAIN. THE IRANIAN POLITICALNOT SWINGING DANGEROUSLY TOWARD THE SOVIET UNION BUT GIVEN OPPORTUNITIES

THEULD REACT AND TURN TOWARD THE WEST FOR SUPPORT (PROVIDING THE

WEST IS NOT REPRESENTED BY GREAT BRITAIN ALONE).

2. MOSSADEQ'S GOVERNMENT HAS POWERFUL POPULAR SUPPORT.

A. MAJLIS OPPOSITION TO MOSSADSQ COLLAPSED ON ABDUL RAHMAN FARAMARZI ANtTlUNCRD THAT THE OPPOSITION WOULD CEASE TO ATTACK THE GOVERNMENT AS LONG AS THE OIL DISPUTE WAS UNDER CONSIDERATION OF THE SECURITY COUNCIL. SOURCES BH.IEVE, HOWEVER, THAT THE COLLAPSE OF THIS OPPOSITION IS FINAL. THE SECURITY COUNCIL DEBATEACE-SAVINO EXCUSE. THE OPPOSITION HAS GOTTEN "OUTEPENDING UPON BRITISH POWER AND ROYAL COURT SUPPORT. BOTH FAILED TO COME THROUGH WITH THEIR SUPPORT AMD THE OPPOSITION DEPUTIES FEAR FOR THEIR VERY LIVES.

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ILR5;IGIOUS GR00PS' lTH0 AT 0NEWGHT HAVE BEENS"& KALLnD TO THE

k to ttam mitof iiuN)e^

KA3IANI'S ENORWJUS IrlFLUENCE IN SUPPORT of THE GOVERNMENT1 by IHE general closing of IHE BAZAARS

ATBY the ORDERLINESS of IHEPARADES

he SPONSORED IN FAVOR of the COVEP.njENT ON THE SAKE DAY.

rJL mE ffiAH HASUm raF MOSSADEg AND AT least SINCE rv SH^^iii^1'^ TO LISrENBRITISH ENTREATIES TO RALLYJSEmj) ZIA TABATABAI. AT wssadeq'S REjUEST THE SHAH HASS"CF,SSEFT in LATE1HEREBY

iiD PEACE FR0NT ORGANIZATIONS ARE BACKINOPi csflAirco'S policy nEVAiNB

INTRANSIGENT AGAINST the BRITISH, THE TUDEH IS behind HOSSADEQ. th" tudeh does not APPEAR TO BE INd AT THIS TIVE TO make LIfTdJfFIcT^ TOR THE

we7 XTCBEfANNIVERSAI" 0POF

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he british position in iran has collapsed.

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B. THE INFLUENCE OF THE BRITISH EKBASSY UPON IHE SHAH AKD HIS COURTIERS l'.AS PRACTICALLY CEASED TO EXIST, MAINLY BECAUSE THE SHAH IS INCREASINGLY AWARE OFREND TH OF THEND FEARS THE "STREETS" ATRE THAN HEE BHITT3I. NO OTHER PR LVD MINISTER PRIOR TO MOSSADEO. COULD CLAIM 8KB SPONSORSHIP. THE SHAH DARES NOT TALK BACK OR STEP OUT OF LINE. HE IS FULLY AWARE NOW Til AT THE POLITICAL WAVE MICH BROUGHT MOSSADEO INTO POWER WAS IN GREAT PART AN ANTI-COURT WAVE.

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the soviet union iselatively string position to reap advantages.

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(3) P THE TUDEH ORGANIZED PEACE FRONT GROUPS. op ten S'nfJS^^LiSf*staue the escape

op british JtfSuS.'SufcSTtRIKE.

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larqer SoIle'SeKL1^OTH "AS A" ESTIMATE OF TUDEH AND FRONT GROUPS FOR THF TFHPiNtu

the SSS o? PAres

sovn?'h.NS.roLICr " oMLB"W" DifEcnr nno

mondon and washington.

(2) IT CALLS FOR THE PHYSICAL EXFllSIOK OF THE BR7TISH FROM IRAN. NEAR BAM " UNDERtfTKEDVESTIGE OF THE ANGLO-SAXON POWERS IN THE

IT LAIS THE GROUNDWORKOMMON FRONT OF NATIONALISTS IN THE NEAR EAST AGAINST ANGLO-SAXON "IMPERIALISTS." (THIS POLICY, FAVORABLE TO THE SOVIET UNION, CAN BE CARRIED OUT MUCH MORE SMOOTHLY BY THE MOSSADEQOURGEOIS GOVERNMENT, THANUDEH GOVERNMENT.)

(5) WE SOVIET "SIDING" WITH IRAN AT THE SECURITY COUNCIL IN EARLY1 HAS INCREASED SYMPATHY FOR THE SOVIETS EVEN INANKS OF THE NATIONAL FRONT.

C. NOTE, HOWEVER, THAT SOVIET INFLUENCE IN IRAN HAS TO CONTEND WITH!

(1) THE ARMY, POLICE, AND GENDARMERIE KHICH REPRESENT IN THE HANDS OF THE StAH AND THE GOVERNMENT COMPARATIVELY WELL-ORGANIZED, CENTRALIZED, AND MASSIVE REPRESSIVE FORCES, WITH NOTEWORTHY SHORTCOMING SUCH AS PENETRATION IN CERTAIN OUARTERS, CORRUPTION, AND SO FORTH.

(2) POPULAR RESISTAICE TO COMMUNISM 5RICH STEMS FRCU RELIGIOUS

SENTIYENTSEVIVAL OF NATIONALISM.

DISTRIBUTION! EMBASSY, TEHRAN

Original document.

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