PROBABLE SOVIET REACTION TO THE INCLUSION OF GREECE AND TURKEY IN WESTERN DEFEN

Created: 6/15/1951

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

COPYSSISTAHT DIRECTOR.ONE

SPECIAL ESTIMATE

PROBABLE SOVIET REACTION TO THE INCLUSION OF GREECE AND TURKEY IN WESTERN DEFENSE AGREEMENTS

ISTORICAL REVIEW PROGRAM

1

CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY

SPECIAL ESTIMATE

PROBABLE SOVIET REACTION TO THE INOT IKinw OF GREECE, AND TURKEYWESTERN^KSLenTS

Number 7

Published1

This docunQcc has besa approved for rolaase IhrouSjfc the BXSTORXGftl. RSVIEWhe Central Intelligence

RBP

he ^rtmente of State, ticiMrSn h y' 'heheStaff par-

nittte*in <hiS

f'EGltliT-

PROBABLE SOVIET REACTION TO THE INCLUSION OF GREECE AHD TURKEY IN WESTERN DEFENSE AGREEMENTS

THE PROBLEM

To estimate probable Soviet reactions to: (a) the inclusion of Greece and Turkey in NATO; (b) the formationediterraneanPact Including Greece and Turkey, with the USember; and (c) security arrangements between Greece and Turkey and certainNAT nations, including the US.

ESTIMATE

Wc estimate that thc Kremlin is unlikely toeneral war because of the inclusion of Greece and Turkey in any of the security agreements listed In the statement of this problem.

Thc Kremlin will almost certainly react to the inclusion of Greece and Turkey in any Western security agreement with intensifiedwarfare, various modes of political and economic pressure upon countries outside the Soviet orbit (particularly upon the Near Easterniplomatic action in thc UN and elsewhere.anti-Western propaganda, and threatening gestures.

We believe that the inclusion of Greece and Turkeyecurity pact which Included tho US would have little effect on the willingness of the Kremlin to accept greater risks of general war by local actions anywhere ln the world in support of Its policy objectives.

We believe that thc Kremlin would regard the inclusion of Greece and Turkey in any defense agreement which also Included thc US, and particularly their inclusion in NATO:

a. As an obstacle to Soviet expansion not only in the Near East but also in Europe;

66GnCT

an addition,inor one, to the military potentialand West Germany;

a potential threat,imited and local one, toof the USSR;

also as further evidence of Western agrcssive intent.

It is probable that the inclusion of Greece and Turkey in NATO orediterranean pact which included tho US, Britain and France, would be regarded by the Kremlinore formidable obstacle to Soviet expansion andreater potential menace to the USSR than an agreement which did not include these Western European powers.

e believe, furthermore, that since the US has publicly proposed that Greece and Turkey be admitted toefusal by Britain or France to undertake firm security commitments to those countries would be interpreted by the Kremlin as revealing weakness andamong the members of the Western alliance.evelopment would to some extent make subsequent security commitments by the US to Greece and Turkey appear to the Kremlin less formidable.

Original document.

---

---