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SPECIAL ESTIMATE
PROBABLE EFFECTS ON SOVIET INTENTIONS AND CAPABILTIES OF ARMING THE JAPANESE NATIONAL POLICE RESERVE AS FOUR FULLY EQUIPPED DIVISIONS
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SPECIAL ESTIMATE
PROBABLE EFFECTS ON SOVIET INTENTIONS AND CAPABILITIES OF ARMING THE JAPANESE NATIONAL POLICE RESERVE AS FOUR FULLY EQUIPPED DIVISIONS
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The intelligence organizations of the Departments of State, the Army, the Navy, the Air Force, and the Joint Staff participated In the preparation of this estimate and concur in It. This paper Is based on Information available on
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PROBABLE EFFECTS ON SOVIET INTENTIONS AND CAPABILITIES OF ARMING THE JAPANESE NATIONAL POLICE RESERVE AS FOUR FULLY EQUIPPED DIVISIONS
CONCLUSIONS
Sino-Soviet Reactions
Responsible officials of the USSR have declared in public statements and ln speeches to the UN and to the Allied Council for Japan, that they consider theof Japan as Intolerable. The Chinese Communists have taken the same line. Soviet and Chinese Communist propaganda has asserted that the "revival of militarism" in Japan "woulderious threat to the cause of peace in the FarSoviet-Communist pronouncements on Japanese rearmament, together with Soviet-Chineseon the status of Japanese rearmament,arein
Moscow has charged and Peiping has echoed the charge that the rearmament of Japan is already taking place, but thus far the reaction of Moscow and Peiping has been limited to propaganda and verbal protests. We believe that they would not resort to direct military action merely tothe conversion of the Japanese National Police Reserve into fully-equipped divisions.
Whether orimited rearmament of Japan takes place, it must be anticipated that the USSR and Communist China will certainly continue their campaign of propaganda and intimidation
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against Japanese rearmament. The equipping ofew Japanese divisions would be seized upon to intensifyampaign. Even though Moscow will probably not expect that such efforts would prevent Japaneseit might hope thereby to strengthen its position with respect to China, exploit Far Eastern fears of renewed Japanese militarism, and, in general, undermine the position of the US by increasing the fear of war among non-Communist countries. While it would be difficult to conceal the conversion of the National Police Reserve, there would be an advantage to the US in not publicizing the operation and in continuing to characterize the force as the National Police Reserve.
the USSR decide to invade Japan, even aof Japan would of course provide ato justify such aggression. The Soviet decisionJapan, however, would not be made on the basiscreation of four Japanese divisions.
Effect on Soviet Capabilities
Soviet capability to mount an invasion of Japanexamined in "Estimate of Sovietated1 (see Enclosurecreation of four fully-equipped,combat-efficient,Japanese divisions would limit butin itself effectively reduce Soviet capabilities toHowever, the existence ofapaneseby available US forces, would make aofajor military operation.
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ENCLOSURE A
1
I. SOVIET-COMMUNIST PRONOUNCEMENTS ON
Responsible officials of the USSR have declared in public statements and in speeches to the UN and to tlie Allied Council for Japan, that thoy consider the rearmament of Japan asThe Chinese Communists have taken the same line. Soviet and Chinese Communist propaganda has asserted that the "revival of militarism" in Japan "woulderious threat to the cause of peace in lhe Far East."
The Sino-Soviet Mutual Aid Pact ofs published by USSR,contains the following provisions regarding Japan:
The preamble notes that the signatories wcro "filled with determination jointly to prevent, by theof friendship .and cooperation between the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and the Peoples Republic of China, the rebirth ofepetition of aggression on the part of Japan or any other state which should unite in any form with Japan in acts of aggression."
tipulates: "Both High Contracting Parties undertake jointly to take all necessary measures at their disposal for the purpose ofe.-petition of aggression and violation of peace on the part of Japan or any other state which should unite with Japan, directly or indirectly in acts of aggression.
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In the event of one of the High Contracting Parties being attacked by Japan or states allied with it, and thus being involvedtate of war, the other High Contracting Party will immediately render military and other assistance with all means at its disposal."
tipulates'that both will striveeace treaty Jointly with other powers allied in World War n.
A Pravda editorial on the occasion of the signing of the treaty asserted that it was hardly necessary to prove how "topical" the agreement wasime when Americanwas doing all in its power to turn Japan Into its strategic place d'armes directed against the USSR and against the Peoples Democratic China."
Since this article, Moscow avoided linking developments in Japan with the treatyt thatravda editorial once more juxtaposed the two when it castigated US plans to rearm Japan and alleged intentions to use Japanese in Korea and followed this castigation with direct quotations of the articles of the treaty as cited above.
Onhe linking of Japanese events and the Sino-Soviet pact became explicit and direct as the Peiping Peoples Daily wrote:
"The Chinese people certainly cannot tolerate the rearming of that country ^Japan/ by the Americans. One of the primary objectives of the Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship, Alliance and Mutualis the prevention of Japanese armed aggression. If America arbitrarily carries out its plot to rearm Japan, the powerful peoples of China, the Soviet Union,
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and other Asian countries certainly cannot ignore itense situation would ensue in the East. Inase, the Japanese people would be the first victim."
Moscow rebroadcast this editorial on the following day.
On the occasion of the first anniversary of the Sino-Soviet, commentaries from Moscow and Peiping gave particular emphasis to the charge that the US was planning to rebuild Japan for aggressiveevelopment over which both were concerned under terms of their pact. After noting that the treaty was directed against the threat of aggression in the Far East, Pravda declared:
"There is no necessity to try to prove that the revival of militarism in Japan and the creationenter of imperialist aggression in Japan woulderious threat to the cause of peace in the Far East. Meanwhile it is well known that the American imperialists are trying to achieve just this. They are reviving the Japanese Army and Japanese war industry, supporting Japanese revanchists, and areeparate plot with Japanese reacUon in an effort to sabotage the conclusion of the Japanese peace treatyultilateral basis. The Soviet-Chinese Treatyounterweight to these unlawful activities of the US ruling circles."
Radio Peiping onebruaryhinese Communist article which declared that "the peoples of China, the Soviet Union, and Other peoples in the East will never allow the United States to rearm Japan and undermine the peace of the Far East."
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Another Peiping broadcast reminded the "imperialists" that the Sino-Soviet treaty "unites the mightillion people to fight against any attempt to do just what the US imperialists are plotting to do in Japan. And this great force is supported by the over-increasing strength of the peace camp of the world, determined to prevent the resurgence of Japanese aggressive forces and the plunging of their landsew holocaust of war."
In addition to their propaganda, Moscow and Peiping have made several other moves in an attempt to show the allegedly rising danger of the rebirth under US aegisilitaristic Japan.
to Japanese remilitarization has beenof the main responsibilities of Uie whole worldThe World Peace Council scheduled to meetfromoebruary has made JapaneseGerman) rearmament one of the two main subjects ofIzvesti^ya declared in an editorial onebruary"World Peace Council ls Intensifying the mobilizationpeoples against remilitarization of Western Germanya struggle which is at the present time the main task
of all Peace Partisans."
obviously officially-inspired protestCommunist China against Japanese rearmament andtreaty is growing throughout the country.is steadily being woven into Ihe "opposeKorea" campaign and ls assuming considerableIn Japan the Communists are trying to generate
a similar movement.
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II- SOVIET-CHINESE ALLEGATIONS ON THE STATUS OF JAPANESE REARMAMENT:
Moscow and Peiping have repeatedly contended that Japanese rearmament is actually already under way:
as earlyoviet representativesAllied Council for Japan and in the Far Easternhave charged that far from carrying out aprogram, American occupationtaking steps to rearm Japan.
hinese CommunistWu Hsiu-chuan told the UN that the USonly turned Japan into its main Far Eastern basefor aggressive war but lt has alreadyuse this baseeans of launching aggressivea series of Asiatic countries. The headquarters
of the US aggression against Korea and Taiwan is In Japan.urthermore, Soviet and Chinese Communist propaganda bas for several months asserted that Japanese troops are engaged in fighting in Korea.
Soviet delegate to the Allied Councilebruaryong statement denouncingof Japan, chargingregular army 'being established and that US authorities "arethemselves to rebuilding the industrial warJapan but are beginning to usee citeddetails in support of his contention.ass.dispatch from Shanghai devoted overolumn
to listing Japanese firms working on US orders for the Korean war. Onebruary, with the obvious intent of adding to the weight of its charge of US alliance with Japanese "aggressive" elements, Moscow madeew note to the US againthe release of former Foreign Minister Shigemitsu.
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d. Soviet propaganda has vehemently attacked John Foster Dulles' mission to Japan as proof that the US is proceeding further with its "plot" toeparate treaty with Japan as wellilitary pact designed to prolong US occupation, make available Japanese'"cannon fodder" and bases "for expanding the American aggression in Asia."
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ENCLOSURE B
ESTIMATE OF SOVIET PROBABLE INTENTIONS TOWARD JAPAN
1
PROBLEM
To estimate whether the USSR will attack Japan before
CONCLUSION
are no positive indications that the USSRattack Japan byut it has the capability
of doing so and could launch such an attack without anywarning.
DISCUSSION
The Soviet Union, directly or indirectly, now controls the mainland of Asia from Siberia to Indochina, with the exception of southern Korea. The USSR also controls the northernof the island chain off the eastern shore of Asia, comprised of Sakhalin and the Kuriles.
The USSR has the capability ofajorairborne offensive against Japan; simultaneously assaulting Hokkaido and northern Honshu; or of Invading Hokkaido first,
to be followed by an invasion of Honshu. This operation can' receive adequate air support and relatively strong naval support, primarily by submarines.
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troop concentrations ln the Far East haveas follows:
9 line divisions, including the equivalent of 1division in the Vladivostok area.
4 line divisions in the Port Arthur-Dairen area.
3 line divisions ln Sakhalin.
2 line divisions in the Kurile Islands.
1 line division in the Kamchatka and Chukotak
There aredditional Soviet divisions in other areas of ths Far East.
Soviet air forces in the Far East total anircraft of all types, Including sufficient airliftenistance ofiles.
Soviet Far Eastern Naval forces are divided Into two fleets--the 7th Fleet based at Sovetskaya Gavan and the 5th Fleet based at Vladivostok. The total fleets consisteavyight cruiser,estroyer types,ubmarines,umber of minor craft.
Soviet Far East merchant fleet aggregatesofillion gross registered tons,fighter-type,ombinationmphibious craft, all of which arefor amphibious operations and capable ofcombat divisions.
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8. Both the USSR and Communist China have clearly expressed their concern over the possible remilitarization of Japan.
have steadily intensified their propagandaagainst alleged US plans to remilitarize Japan andbases there by meanseparate peace treaty.
At the end of January, Radio Moscow,hinese Communist press editorial, made the first specificthat the Chinese people "cannot tolerate" theof Japan, asserted that the peoples of China and the Soviet Union "cannot ignore" it, and warned that if the US armed Japanense situation would ensue in the Farhe broadcast, in an unusual mention of the Sino-Soviet alliance( explicitly stated that "one of the primary objectives' of the treaty "is the prevention of Japanese armed aggression."
Soviet Union has officially served noticewants the Allied Council for Japan atebruaryto discuss (he subject of "demilitarization
Communist-controlled World Peaceannounced that it will discuss the remilitarizationand Germanyeeting in Berlin
9. Recent indications of possible Soviet intentions are:
traffic on the Trans-Siberian Railroad.
stockpiling in the Far East.
of some build-up of Soviet air strength
in the Kuriles area and the presence of sizable air forces on Sakhalin.
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of the arrival ofdditionalnspecified aircraft in Sakhalin havebut these reports are of questionable validity.
ivisions composed of formerhave been moved to Sakhalin. However, littlegiven to these reports. ,
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