THE CURRENT SITUATION IN ALBANIA WITH PARTICULAR REFERENCE TO GREEK, YUGOSLAV A

Created: 11/20/1951

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

IUKAWresident's Secretary's Files

COH no. 1

VOB THE PBESIDEHT Or THE UNITED STATES

. MAY

NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE

THE CURRENT SITUATION IN ALBANIA WITH PARTICULAR REFERENCE TO GREEK, YUGOSLAV AND ITALIAN INTERESTS

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The intelligence organisations ol the Departments of State, the Army, the Navy, the Air Force, and the Joint Staffwith the Central Intelligence Agency in theof this estimate. All members of the IntelligenceCommittee concurred in this estimate onovember.

RUMAN LlBNAki

Prosidenl's Secretary's Files

CURRENT SITUATION IN ALBANIA WITH PARTICULAR REFERENCE TO GREEK, YUGOSLAV AND ITALIAN INTERESTS

THE PROBLEM

To assess the strategic importance of Albania; to examine the stability of the existing regime; and to analyze Greek, Italian and Yugoslav interests in Albania.

CONCLUSIONS

its continuance underolitical assetatter of prestige to the USSR especially in view of the defection of Yugoslavia and the

defeat of Communist aggression

Greece. Economically, Albania is aItaly and Yugoslavia have officially

bility to the USSR. By itself. Albaniathe principle of the creation of

of minor military importance tosovereign and independent Albania

USSR. However, if overlandits present boundaries and free from

cation with the Soviet orbit werecontrol. However, Greece, because

lished, it would regain the limitedits claims to northern Epirus, has so

tary value it possessed for the USSRnot accepted this principle. Whether

fore the Yugoslavnot all three of Albania's neighbors

esistance activityrou- could aclual'y be bloa&htblcsome problem for the Hoxha regime independent Albania with its present

but is not an immediate threat As long boundaries would probably dependthe resistance effort is divided and on the support given the new govern-does not receive substantial external aid, ment by the Western Powers.

RUMAN LIBKAR^Secretary's Files'

Significance of Albonici

Albania is of importance toprimarily as an outpost ofThe USSR would regard Its loss asto Soviet pritUge, parUcularly sinceof Yugoslavia and the failure ofeffortabUlly to tbe USSR.Is of minor Importance to theIttrategic locationentrance to the Adriatic, underits capabilities forIsland and the porthave some potential value at basescraft, small naval attack craft, andSascno Islandinorb mar to c_ base and there haveumors in theof Soviet efforts to reconstructThere IsevidenceSoviet cflorls to build upfacilities and. although Albania mightvalue at an outpost in an earlyfor air defense of the Soviet oiblt,

[ rSnce tho defection of Yugoslavia,anla has lost most of Its strategictoK because of the lack of overland communication with the SovietHowever. Albania would be ofand campaign in the Balkans, since operations In conjunction withIf successful, could separate Greece from Yugoslavia.

Tho Current Situation In Albania

The Stability oj tht Repute and Kitent ol Soviet Control

to the Couilnform-Yugoslavlbania was closely tied,and economically, tothan follow Marshal Tito'sIloxha chose the Moscow campa vigorous campaign for theof -nailonalKl" element* Innotxtricated Albania fromwithut also succeededserious competition forwithin Albania. Repotted rivalryBoth* and the Minister of Interior, Lt. Ocn.hchu Is likely to be of little Importance as both men ate apparentlycontrolled by the Kremlin.

is totally dependent uponWiUiout lt. the countiy'sbe severely sliakenovieteinforced bf

n key positions

In the police, military, and civilianas well as In the party hierarchy.

WIUi Soviet support Iloxha and Shehu have thus far succeeded In ruling the country through the usual Communist methods of police tenor andconomic controls. Despite evidence of opportunism andin the security forces andhe army, these forces constitute effective ui-struments for ihe suppression of opposition.

Soviet support to Albania, however, has notutual assistance pact,because the USSR desires to leave the situation fluid and toommitment which might provelbania hasact only with

any change In Ihewhich might threaten Sovietwould automatically Involve aSoviet prestige In an area In whichhas ahead? defied th? Kremlin.present circumstances, such acould occur only with tlie supportor more of the neighboring state?.development would necessarily lead to aot the Inb rnaction tohange ofv-Mild defend upon broaderof global strategy.

Resistance to the Present Regime

mong the Albaniancontinues to be widespread and theresome overt re*Utance within theyears. TheItself has admitted

only Otherwhich hmn notmutualrffli.c* pacta with th* USSR are Pattern Ucrnuny ami NoeUi Korea.

the existence ot "diversionlsf elements andupon military and civilian The most dramatic Incident ofactivity was the bombing ollegation inut localand limited economic

IT

have probably been more effective challengesto Comrnunist authority. Tlius far, tire llox-ha regime has been able to deal withmovements by instituting further rc-.presslve measures. For example, Shehti haal organised special pursuit battalionsperate in the mountainous areas againstresistance groups.

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f Holy, Yugoslavia ondlbania has longone ofamong Its neighbors. Their Interests conflict to such an extent that, even under present circumstances, the problem ofcomplicates the development ot good relations and cooperation among Italy,and Oreece. Other problems, such as Trieste and Macedonia, are of greaterImportance In creating dissension among these powers, but Albaniaritical Issue If the present

nanie of an Albanian heioh Ctn-tury.

^ IUiUantaly's objective in Albania has always

Italy supported

the creation of an Independent Albania2 and later.ccupied the island of Saseno and the port of VAtona. Italian troops remained In occupatioi:Uly ni then forced to evacuate thebut retained Sastno whkhninoe naval and submarine base.act of friendship and security with Albaniatalyegal basis for Including Albania in Italy's sphere of Influence. Italian Influence was manifested by loans, management of nearly alleconomic enterprises, and Ualning and equipping of the anncd forces.occupied Albania and united It with Italy;e launched hit Invasion of Greece from there. Under the. Italian Teacetaly recognised theof Albania, ceded Sascnondall public and private properly rights, concessions, claims, etc. In Albania.

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Greek Inteintt

reek Interests In Albania center upon Crick clalmi to southern Albania (northernn area which the Greeks occupied20 and which they haveclaimed on historical, ethnic,and economic grounds. The Greeks also recall that Albania servedase for the Italian attack on Greece0 and, in the postwar years, for Communist guerrilla operations against Oreece. Even at present, Albaniaase from which Communist agents are Infiltrated Into Oreece.

Its official statements, theForeign Office has emphasised thatAJl-anian independence and territorial integrity correspond with Italian Interests. Italian efforts to Improve relations with the present Commnntit regime have made no progress. Formal diplomatic relations were established9 and, despite Communist restrictions on the Italian Legation In Tirana, Italy undoubtedly Intends to retain suchas long as possible.

iff)

President's Secretary's Files

as the Hoxha regime does not resume full scale support to the Greek guerrillas.

Yugoslav Interests

Serbia opposcil the principle of anAlbania In the period2ollowing World War I, the Yugoslavs occupied northern Albaniaugoslavia finally accepted thefrontier as delineatedntil the outbreak of World War II, Italian domination of Albania prevented Yugoslavia fromany influence.

This situation changed radically during World War II when Tito, through Albanian Communists, managed to obtain control of the Albanian National Liberation Movement. Tito's control was exercised largely through emissaries attached to the headquarters of the Albanian Army of Notional liberation, and,4lbaniauppet of Yugoslavia.oxha was able to extricate Albania from Its ties with Yugoslav-la following the Tjto-Coinlnfotm rift.

ito has ostensiblythe principle of an Independent,Albania and has condemned both Greek territorial claims and the alleged Greekfor the partition of Albania between Greece and Yugoslavia. Yugoslavia Isapprehensive of the restoration of Italian influence or domination. In tho past several months, Yugoslav propaganda has charged Italy with encouraging the plans of Albanian exiles for an "ctlmlc" Albania which would include the Yugoslav provinces ofand Metohiya, both populated chiefly by Albanians. Tito's actual objective appears to be the eventual creation of an anti-Soviet, pio-Tito regime in Albaniaeturn to the status. It was apparently to this end that the "League of AlbanianRefugees In Yugoslavia" was formed Inhe league, which claimslbanian refugees. Isby Albanian Communists who have fled from Albania It was created

Yugoslavia's exposed position,has probably deterred Tito from using the League to the full. Yugoslav spokesmen have expressed the fear Uiat any substantial efforts to overthrow the Hoxha'regime might be taken byKretext for military action against Yugoslavia.

The Possibilityettlement

he existence of an Albanian state has hi the past always depended upon the attitude of stronger powers. Although all three of Albania's neighbors would presumably wish to see the eventual liquidation of the present regime in Albania, their Interests in thestatus of Albania are incompatible. Since Albania's Isolation from thehe policy of each of Its neighbors has been directed atosition from which It could profit In the event of the overthrow of the Hoxha regime.ach country has sought to counter the moves of the others. Tills has lediffusion of resistance efforts within Albania. Rivalry among (lie three countries over Albania is also one of the factors lindting theof these nations In tho development of coordinated defense plans in Southeastern Europe.

taly and Yugoslavia have officiallythe principle of the creation of aand independent Albania within Itsbonndaiies and free from Soviet control. However, Oreece, because of Its claims to northern Epirus, hits so far not accepted this principle. Whether or not all three ofneighbors could be brought to accept Albanian independence would probably de-pemi upon the support given the newby the Western Powers.

Original document.

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