NATIONAL SCIENTIFIC INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE - SUMMARY OF THE STATUS OF THE SOVIET

Created: 1/8/1953

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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SCIENTIFIC INTELLIGENCE-ESTIMATE

tollottring member organizationsft*Advisory Committee participated with the-genct Agency in the preparation of this-estimate:eIntelligence organizations of the Departments of State, the Army, the Navy, the Air-the

Energy Commission.Alt members of the Intelligence Advisoryconcurred in this estimate

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NATIONAL SCIENTIFIC IBTSLLIGEWCE ESTIMATE JOINT ATOMIC ENERGY INTELLIGENCE COKCTTTEE

SUMMARY OP THE STATUS OF THE SOVIET ATOMIC ENERGY PROGRAM

3

This issummaryot National Scientific Intelligence Estimate,repared and agreed upon by the Joint Atomic Energy Intelligence Committee vhich Is composed of representatives

?LSv* Army' Navy, and Air Force, the Atomic Energy Commission, and the Central Intelligence Agency.

*

A group of expert conaultanti working with the Joint Atomic Energy Intelligence Committee concurred lo tbe conclusions given in this

tiaat*approved by the Intelligenceaaanuary

SUMMARY OF

THE STATUS CF THE SOVIET ATOMIC ENERGY FRCGRAM

TEE FRCBLEM

TO estimate the status and capabilities of the Soviet Atomic Energy Program on the baeis of information available from all sources.

SUMMARY

Soviet Union in the Fall5ighto produce atomic weapons under the supervision of the "FirstDirectorate attached to the Council ofhich was

set up for this purpose.

contribution of espionage activities to thewas substantial, but an even greater contribution hasthe research and development carried on by the Soviets.

Soviet efforts were directed toward the production

of Plutonium, culminating in the test explosionlutonium bomb n

!*. Byhe Soviets had established a

Plutonium production capacity. umber of sites have been identified, important details such as aite layout; the type, size and number of reactors in operation; and whether graphite, heavy water or other moderator materials were in usearticular time remain undetermined. The difficulties attendant upon such identification and determination will continue to increase. ubstantial0 tons per year) does exist for the production of heavy water. The Sovietsarge synthetic graphite industry and probably have the capability to produce reactor-grade graphite.

5- The Soviets have achieved the production of weapon-grades evidenced by the explosioneapon containingn However, the absence of sufficient evidence on which to base conclusions on installed or planned isotope separation capacity results, at the present time, in one of the most important gaps in intelligence on the Soviet Atomic Energy Program.

^of new sites indicates that theEnergy Program is continuing to expand. ajor increase in* probab:ty hecome effective during the latter

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Uranium reserves within the USSR appear to te sufficient toarge program, but the rate of exploitation will depend on the balance between atomic energy and other Soviot activities. The present rat* of exploitation within the USSR and ita Satellites will support the program outlined for the period of this estimate. Tohe Satellitesprincipally East Germanyhave furnished f the uranium available to the Soviets.

The main emphasis of Soviet atomic energy research will continue to be on military applicationsprimarily weapons.

9- It is believed that the Soviets have not conducted thermo- teots, end consequently are not stockpiling this type ofwhich may be relevant has been noted but there Is nodevelopment activity at the present time. There is noon which to base an estimate of the lead the US may havefield, nevertheless, thererowing Soviet capabilityproduction of thermonuclear materials, and thereforeresearch and development, and even field testing by

10. The Soviets have byoint in weapon technology when the specific models cf fission weapon, stockpiled can e dictated by military requirements rather than technologicalilotoos are probably within their

thC purpose of calculating the Soviet stockpiles, reason-

able weapon types yieldingT are assumed. The cumulative

iC8 accordingly estimated to be as

OF BOMBS

P)

j

2 Soviet weapon stockpile foray be as low ashird less or a. high as one-third aore than the figure stated. Inre^umT.Wh" ST pj0ductlon or fi"ionable materials, particularly

* fUtU"ow aa one-third

less than or as high as twice the figure given.

IsST, S* thechoose to stockpile weapons of amaller or larger yield, their stockpile would be altered accordingly.

Original document.

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