PROBABLE CONSEQUENCES OF THE PROSECUTION OF THE ANTI-TRUST SUIT AGAINST CERTAIN

Created: 1/2/1953

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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ESTIMATE

PROBABLE CONSEQUENCES OF THE PROSECUTION OF THE ANTI-TRUST SUIT AGAINST CERTAIN US OIL COMPANIES

FOR THE PERSOTA1F THE AJXRSSSEE OilU.

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The fcUoatng member organt-atiott of Iht Intelligence Advisory Committee participated icith theht preparation of Ihtt estimate: The Intelligence organizations of the Departments of State, the Army, the Navy, the Air Force, and tht Joint Staff.

AU memben of the Intelligence Advisory Comruttecin this estimate onxcept the Assistant to the Director. Federal Bureau ofwho abstained from comment, neither concurring

nor dissenting

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PROBABLE CONSEQUENCES OF THE PROSECUTION OF THE ANTI-TRUST SUIT AGAINST CERTAIN US OIL COMPANIES

NOTE

This paper deals only with the consequences of the publication of the FTC report and of the possible indictment and trial of US oil companies. It does not consider the consequencesudgment for or against the oil companies.

ESTIMATE

' we estimated thatthe "Report of the Federal Tradeon the Internationalwould:

exploited in Soviet-Communistanti-US propaganda;

to impair basic US relationsUK and other Western countries;

affect the position of theof OS oil companies, in the Middle

attacks against USin ouier areas.

The FTC report was published onhe fact that deletions were madeatter of public report, but the text of the deleted portions has not been publicly revealed.

The effects noted Inave not yet materialized in any significant degreeesult of publication ol the ftc report or of the Initial legal proceedings stemming

However, publication of the report has already provided Communists and nationalist extremists with material which they can use In an aggressive propaganda campaign to the

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detriment of US interests at any time they so decide. We are unable to estimate when or in what manner they will do so.

Indictment and trial of the oil companies would probably bring out additional material which could be exploited by Communists and nationalist extremists to discredit US oiland other US foreign businessOn the other hand, abandonment of the case would lay the US Government open to charges of attempting to suppressevidence and of condoning the practices alleged in the original complaint.

Past and possible future revelations will probably provide an additional stimulus to demands in Middle Eastern countries and in Venezuelaarger, share of oil revenues. They will also provide nationalist extremists with additional ammunition for use in their campaign in behalf of nalionahzation of oil. These revelations are not, however, in our judgment, likely toecisive clement affecting the policy of these countries with regard to nationalization of oil resources.

In the UK and other Western European countries there has been criticism of the soundness of US judgment in publishing the FTC report. The prosecution of the cast wouldurther strain on US relations

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these countries. These countrieswhich might result In the lossmore tolerant ol cartelstrategic resources There are.than is the US. They haveno indications that the publicationwill probably continue to question,FTC report has Impairedolicy which, ln order tothe UK and other Westernrinciple that they regard as ofthe indictment and trial ot the oilrisks reactions ln oilwould be likely to do so.

Original document.

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