p release
HO.
Copy No I
INTELLIGENCE AGENCY OFFICEURRENT INTELLIGENCEugust3
ASSESSMENT OF THE IRANIAN SITUATION
Tho failure of the Iranian coup attempted by retired General Zabedi and by Colonel Nasarl of the imperial guards leaves Prime Minister Mossadeqtrengthened position, discourages and weakens his divided opposition, and may lead him to attempt to abolish the monarchy. It will make Mossadeq more suspicious of his associates as well as of the Western powers and may make him more arbitrary andto doal with as the internal situation continues to deteriorate.
Mossadeq who received advance notice of the plot now has military control and isosition to exploit the situation thoroughly. The Tudeh party bail alrr-ady demonstrated ln his support and he can generate considerable popularby presenting this latest maneuver against himoreign-inspired plot against the Iranian people. Thesemay help Mossadeq secure the electionew andamenable Majlis.
The prime minister publicly announced onugust that new oloctlons would be set after he had amended the electoral law. In view of his success ln controlling the recenton tbe abolition of the present Majlis he may also be successful in controlling the election of new Majlis deputies. It bad been assumed in recent days that Mossadeq would have great difficulty in doing this since thelargely control the countiyslde and Tudeh might elect some of its own representatives and give the prime minister only limited support.
Tho failure of the Zahedi-Nasari coup, tbe arrest of other opponents of the prime minister and the suggestion of more drastic action will have widespread repercussions among the various groups and individuals who would like to remove Mossadeq.
Mullah Kasbanlitter opponent of the prime minister tends to withdraw quickly whenever Mossadeq is ln tbe ascei.dancy. The small opposition groups of the now dismissed Majlis likewise lack courage. Tbe disgruntled
array officers are notosition to act as long as the chief of staff and the chain of command remain in Uossadeq's control.
At this point there appears to be no other group or combination which is ready to try to act against the prime minister or which if it did act could anticipate success.
The involvement of tho shah, who signed two decrees to remove Mossadeq and to appoint General Zahedi as the next prime minister,erious threat to the monarchy. Thelight to Baghdad and the prominent position occupied in tho coup by tbe commander of the Imperial guard is an open invitation to Mossadeq to take action against the monarchy. The prime minister has long wished to remove all power from the shah and on occasion has given indicationsesire to remove if he does not succeed in enforcing abdication he will manage to strip from bim the remaining vestiges of power.
The prime minister who has long been fearful ofmay now be expected to act more ruthlessly inhimself. He has long been convinced that the British are plotting his removal. The leftish press in Tehran hasampaign accusing the United States of implication in the present coup. Mossadeq may come to view America and Britain as joint conspirators.
The prime minister, however, has consistently hoped for American aid and accordingly has not broken with the United States. His past policy may accordingly be continued. He may be expected to break with the United States only if he is convinced that he can get nothing or if he is in needew whipping boy in order to generate more popular support.
The Tudeh has already come out against the shah and is charging American involvement. They may be expected to give full support to Mossadeq in his drive to remove or weaken the shah.
Under these conditions the economic and politicalof Iran will continue. Mossadeq, forced to lean on the Tudeh, may be expected to retain political control but will probablyore dictatorial position and indulge in more chicanery to maintain himself.
OCI INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
CopyOF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
ugust3
CHRONOLOGY
(Tehran time, which isours ahead of EST)
13signed decree dismissing Mossadeq and
appointing General Zahedi prime minister.
0 Colonel Hasari of the Imperial guard arrests
Deputy Chief of Staff Klani.
Nasarl imprisons Minister of Foreign Affairs
Fa teal, Minister of Roads Haqshenas and Deputy Zlrakzadeh. Fails to locate Chief of Staff Rlahl.
Nasarl with armored car and soldiers attempts
to seize Prime Minister Mossadeq. Nasarl Is arrested by Mossadoq's guards.
Chief of Staff Rlahl orders imperial guards disarmed.
Iranian borne service announces attempted coup.
Fateml, Haqshenas and Klanl released by Hossadeq's followers.
Moscow Home Service, quoting an Iranian
Communist newspaper, reportsalace-inspired coup will be attempted In near future.
Extraordinary meeting of the government council is held at Mossadeq's borne.
First government communique announces gnashing of plot.
Disarmament of imperial guard la completed.
Abol Qasem Amini, Minister of Court, is arrested by Mossadeq.
Fateml holds press conference announcing failure of plot which he says has been suspected for some time.
(The shah and the queen arrive in Baghdad by air early on the morning ofh.)
INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
CopyOF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
3
COMMENT ON THE ATTEMPTED COUP IN IRAN
The failure of the military coup iu Tehran and the flight of the shah to Baghdad emphasize Prime Minister Mossadeq's continued mastery of the situation and foreshadow more drastic action on his part to eliminate all opposition. The prime minister can utilize the situation to generate more popular support for himselfime when be is facing tbe problem of how to secure the electionew and more amenable Majlis While in the past Mossadeq had not been very aggrossive iu his efforts to remove his enemies, this Incident will reinforco his recent tendency to proceed arbitrarily.
Tbe shah's flight, the involvement of the commander of the Imperial guards as leador of tho coup, and tho imperial decrees to remove Mossadeq and appoint General Zahedl prime minister present Mossadeq with tbe opportunity of reducing the shah's position still further or attempting to eliminate tbe monarchy altogether.
Late reports state that array units stationed outside the capital are moving toward Tehran. Since the commander-in-chief of tbe army remains loyal to Mossadeq significant army support for the coup is not anticipated.
Original document.
Comment about this article, ask questions, or add new information about this topic: