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Current Intelligence Weekly
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reviewer
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
Meckel
U. S. OFFICIALS ONLY
SUMMARY OF CONTENTS
DE GASPERI'S PROSPECTS ON THE EVE OFUNE ELECTIONS
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Despite serious threats from the Nenni Socialists and the Monarchists, Premier de Gasperi's center electoral bloc is still expected to winune electionslim majority. (SEE CHART)
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DE GASPERI'S PROSPECTS ON THE EVE OFUNE ELECTIONS
Despito sorlous threats from the Nenni Socialists sod the Monarchists, Premier de Gasperi's center electoral bloc is still expected to winuno electionslia majority.
serious post-electoral trouble iot irelier aehe Senate, however. If the extreme right were toear balance-of-power position ln this body, it would threaton both government stability and Italy's commitment to cooperation in Western defense.
The closing weeks of the Italian electoral campaign have been marked by strong drives by the Nenni Socialists on the left and the Monarchists on the right, and comparative apathy on the part of center elements. Both political extremes have been concentrating their invective on Do Gasperi's Christian Democrats, evidently hoping to cut into the center's strength to an even greater extent than inocal elections (see. Both have been exploiting the government'i inability torieste settlement, its failure to solve the country's economic problems, and the generalof the new electoral law whichonus of lower house scats to the bloc winningare popular majority.
The most serious threat to De Gasperi from the left springs from the Nenni Socialists, who arc expected totheirhowings and ensure that the Social-Communist allianco does not fall materially below theor-cent of the vote which it polled then.
De Gasperi's chief danger from the right comes from tho Monarchists, whose campaign has been evon more effective than that of their neo-Fascist allies. Much of the Monarchist threat comes from the appeal to0 Italians who6 voted to retain the king. Thie appeal is especially strong in the south, where the monarchy has traditionally been popular and where desperate poverty works against the government's plea for united anti-Communist support.
None of the three minor democratic parties allied with the Christian Domocrats has drawn enthusiastic audiences. Of the three, the Liberals, who are the loast closely associated with the presont government, have shown tho most strength and have the best chance to gain. All three evidently hold
to their electoral alliance with De Gasperi mainly from fear of the Cominuni sis and neo-Fascists.
Public apathy has also disturbed top Christianleaders who have expressed fears of widespread absenteeism at tbe polls. Recently, however, Luigi Gedda, the authoritarian-minded leader of Catholic Action, whoexpects totrong influenceew Christian Democratic government, has put the movement's civic committers into vigorous action behind the Christian Democrats. The clergy have also given considerable indirect support from the pulpit.
Anticipationossible stalemate is suggested by the guarded overtures from leaders in several parties for new political alliances after the eloctions. Pietro Nennithat the Christian Democratsarty with which his Socialists could collaborate and reportedly has sent an emissary to De Gasperi. Former Marshal Graziani, speaking for the neo-Fascists, also publicly praised the Christianrecord. On tbe Christian Democrat side, the party secretary has reportedly drawnlanost-election alliance with the Monarchistsa scheme favored also by Gedda, De Gasperi himself, however, has been carofully neutral in his public utterances, and has concentratedon holding together the shaky center coalition.
his coalition ttm win or 53
Within the past few days, De
35
in*
are popular majority lor Ufc uasperi'B Dloc, with the neu electoral law then guaranteeing him easy control of the lower house. Since this law does not apply to the Senate, however, the Monarchists might still achieve something very close to a- power position there.
De Gasperi
would accept neither Of mese alternatives mix worn call new elections, presumably in the hope that some
The premier himself seems to recognize that thissituation might confront him with the alternatives of allying himself with the Monarchists at the cost of defections by certain of bis left and center supporters, oract with Nenni at the cost of grave conflict within the Christian Democratic right wing.
instead
of those voting for the Monarchists in the June elections would be jolted into returning to the Christian Democratic fold. In any of these contingencies,eriod of governmental instability would ensue.
the voting strength of the italian political parties
DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISTS-INDEPENDENTS
LEFTIST ELECTORA BLOC
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LOCAL
POPULAR VOir
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Original document.
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