to
iN FOR MA TTON
MEMORANDUM
AND UTILIZATION OF COTTON
THE SOVIET BLOC
CIA/RR3
INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Office of Research and Reports
Paje
Summary
Postwar Trends In
Production
China
Satellites
If, Current
Appendixes
Appendix A- Cotton Acreage and Production in the Soviet Bloc,
nd
Apprndlx B.
cia/rp Tm-}i3
PRODUCTiavF COTTONHE SOVIET BLOC*
Cotton yields ln the Soviet Bloc have not entirely recovered free the effects of World War II. Tbe average yield per hectare is veil below the.prewar average yield over the same area. stimatedil lion metric tone, rawlightly8 production In the same area, this achievement was made possible only by an Increase of nearly one-fifth ln acreage. Host of the additional acreage is marginal land. esult of adverse weather conditions, Soviet Bloc production dropped, aboutercent,illion metric tons, which is less than the
Cotton production ln the USSRhich wasercent greater& production ln the same area, accounted for aboutercent of total Soviet Bloc production. Production ln Chinahich was aboutercent less8 production, accounted for aboutercent of total Soviet Bloc production, production in the European Satellites, which has greatly Increased since Worldtill accounted' forercent of Bloc production
All cotton-growing Soviet Bloc countries have plans for increases ln cotton acreage and total production. On the whole, the implied increase in Bloc cotton production appears unattainable. The Soviet Fifth Five Years designed to gain self-sufficiency in production of raw cotton for both Internal and Satellite needs.
Thin Fomorondum contains Information available as ofThe data in this report do not represent measured quantities but are estimates and approximations. Thc range of fluctuation ln estimates is no leos than plus or minusercent.
** All estimates given In this memorandum areaw cotton basis unless otherwise indicated. Raw cotton consists of both seed and fiber. All data referred to arc contained innlessindicated.
Thepercent Increase2 production figures in the USSR appears unattainable, since cotton acreage in the USSR ia rapidly approaching climatic limits and Improved methods ofcannot increase yields aa rapidly as planned. Actual cotton production In the USSR is expected to remain at2 levels until irrigated cotton acreage in the southern regions of European USSR Is developed.
Cotton production in the Soviet Bloc countries is insufficient to fulfill present civilian and military requirements forcotton product*. It is believed that rather than trying to obtain self-sufficiency in cotton production through the further use of marginal lands, the Bloc probably will continue to Import tho required quantity of cotton from non-Bloc countries.
Analysis of2 figures for Soviet Bloc cotton production, imports, and utilization indicates that0 metric tons, ginnedecame available2 for additions to Bloc stock.
1. Postwar Trends In Production.
Cotton production In the Soviet Bloc has more than doubled since the low point reachedhen production in those areas now constituting the Bloc fell toillion metric tons. roductionillion metric tone. Cotton production In the same areahe peak prewar year,illion metric tons.
Cotton acreage In the Soviet Bloc has increased steadily since the end of World War II. It was estimated7 million hectares at the beginningQ-percent increase over theacreageillion hectares.
* Ginned hasla refers to cotton fibers after separation from the
seeds.
In spite of efforts in the Soviet Bloc to increase cottonsince the end of World War II, yields are still below thelevel. Host of the Increased plantings have been on marginal land, and thc adverse factors brought about by World War II have not
as yet been fully corrected. 2 productionillion metric tons is estimated to yieldetric centners per hectare* as compared with1 yieldentnersrewar yieldentners per hectare.
Cotton yields suffered severely during World War II, since the high priority given to food production resultede-emphasis in cotton production. Yields per hectare in the irrigated areas of thc USSR dropped4 centners8entners during World War II because of such factors as negligence inreduction in tbe use of fertilizers) and poor cultivation and management practices. The yield per hectare in the irrigated areas of the USSR2 averaged about lk centners per hectare.
2. 2 Production.
Cotton production in .the Soviet Bloc countries26 million metricecrease ofetricercent) from1 productionillion metric tons. 2 cotton acreage In the Bloc5 million hectares, lesscrcent decrease as compared1 totals, andpercent increase over the prewar acreageillion hectares. otton acreage in all sectors' of the Bloc except Communist China exceeded or equaled both the prewar and1 acreage. 1 Chinese2 acreage byercent.
a. USSR.
* All references to centners in this ncrcoranduii arc to the metric centner, whichilograms,6 pounds. ectarecres.
Cotton production in the USSR2 isillion metricperccnt decrease as compared withillion metric tons producedercent Increase overillion metric tons produced The USSR isto have produced7 percent of the total Soviet Bloc cotton productionillion metric tons
Since cottonensitive plant, Indigenous to varaIts production Is concentrated In the six southernmostregions* of the USSR. Three of these regions, whererainfall is supplemented by Irrigation, account for the bulk of Soviet cotton production.
AH of the irrigated long-staple cotton produced In the USSR Is grown In the three regions mentioned above, vhlch are-in thesouthern part of Asiatic USSR: entralhe southern part of Kazakhstan,he Transcaucasus. These three regions of Asiatic USSR have increased In relative Importance as cotton-growing areas since the prevar period. otton production In Asiatic USSR is estimated at6 percent of the total Soviet production. The Central Asia and Kazakhstan regions are estimated to1 percent and the Transcaucasusercent of all Soviet cotton production.
Practically all of the nonirrlgated short-staple cottonin the USSR is grown in the three southernmost regions ofUSSR. It lo estimated tliat2 the South Region producedetricercent) ofetric tons produced In European USSR; the Southeast0 metric tonsnd the Volga0 metric5 percent). These three regions of European USSR have declined in Importance as cotton-growing areas since thc prevar period. During the prevar period, European USSRercentetric tons) of the country's cotton. During World War II, cotton production vus virtually discontinued in European USSR in favor of the more urgently needed food crops. Although efforts to increase cotton production during the postwar period have been made, it Is estimated2 cotton production in European USSR is only0 metric tons) of the total Soviet production, even9 percentillion hectares) of the country's cotton9 million hectares) is In this area.
b. CcCTsunlst China.
2 cotton production in Communist China Is estimated atI8 million metric tons) of the total Soviet Bloc
* Thc term region In this report refers to the economic regionsand numbered on CIA1 (First, USSR: Economic* Stalingrad and Astrakhan oblasts.
production. Production has dropped markedly under8 figure3 million metric tons).
Although the Chinese cotton acreageillion hectares2 Is estimated to beercent greater than the prewar acreageillion hectares,2 productionillion metric tons is estimated to3 percent less than the prewar production figures. Thus2 yield2 centners per hectare is estimated to be5 percent less than the prewar yield7 centners per hectare. 2 Chineseentners) isercent less than the Soviet yield5 centners per hectare6 percent greater than the yield5 centners per hectare In the European Satellites.
c. European Satellites.
The European Satellites have increased in relative importanceotton-growing area since the prewar period. It is estimated that2 the European Satellites will produceetric tons) of the cotton in the Soviet Bloc countries as compared with less than one-halfetric tons)S-*
Bulgaria produces1etric tons) of the cotton in the European Satellite countriesj6etricnd Hungary,3etric tons). During the prewar period, Bulgaria produced aboutetric tons) of the cotton in the European Satellites, Rumania produced0 metricnd Hungary produced none.
3- Planned Production.
* Figures based on) boundaries.
Planned cotton production in the Soviet Bloc Is estimated atillion netric tone, raw basis, an Increaseillion metricercent) over1 total.5 planned productionillion metric tons would exceed the prewar productionillion metric tons byillion metricercent). This goal is considered to be
A. USSR.
The Fifth Five Year Plan of the USSR Is directed towardself-sufficiency In raw cotton production for Internal andneeds. The Plan, covering the, envisions that gross cotton production will increase In this span of years byoercent. This Plan includes extension of the irrigation network, reclamation of other lands, and extension of production in the non-irrigated sections of European USSR. Attainment of this goal, bow-ever, is to be achieved mainly by Increasing yields through use of better varieties, better rotations, and increased use of fertilizer.
The5 Plan envisions an increase In acreageillion hectares,ercent above2 acreageillion hectares, and an Increase In productionillion metricpercent increase over2 productionillion metric tons. Both the acreage and production goals appear to be unattainable. The acreage in cotton is rapidly approaching climatic limits, though slight increases may be made In that direction. Yields can be increased slightly by use of improved varieties, morebetter crop rotations, and Improved methods of cultivation. These Increases, however, will not be sufficient to accomplish the announced goal.
The Plan estimates an increase In production of Irrigated cotton in Asiatic USSRillion metric tons, an increase ofercent as compared with2 productionillion metric ton*. To attain this enormous increase vlllield increase of4 centners per hectarepercent Increase over2 yield9 centners per hectare. Such an enormous Increase In yielderiod Is Improbable.
The Plan calls for an Increase in acreage in the nonlrrlgated European USSR area toillioncrcentas compared withillion hectares It is planned that production be increasedetricpercont increaoe over2 productionetric tons. Yields4 centners per hectare for this area are expected to be so lov that, even if the planned production Is accomplished,etric tons over2 productionetric tons would account forercent of thc total planned4 million metric tons). Plans are underway to produce
Irrigated cotton in the southern regions of European USSR. Little progress, however, can be made on this project prior
It is likely that the Soviet cotton acreage will tend to remain at about29 million hectares) and that Soviet cotton production, if increased by better yields, will not be sreatly increased. It is conceivable that no gains in production would be made5 if adverse weather comparable to that2 were encountered during theears. ven though acreage vas increasedectares as compared with1 acreageillion hectares, adverse weather caused production to dropetricercent).
b. Communist China.
or cotton production in Communist China do not extend The Chinese Plan3 estimates an increase In cotton productionillion metric tons, aboutercent over2 productionillion metric tons. It is planned that thisbe accomplished primarily by increasing the yield per hectare.arge increase in yields,ear, is unrealistic.
Satellites.
the USSR, the European Satellites are limited in their ability to expand cotton productionracticable basis. With the exception of small areas in Bulgaria, there are only limited opportunities for expanding cotton production.
5 Rumanian Plan projects an Increase inetric tons, which would be more thanimes2 level0 metric tons. It is believed that such an enormous increase cannot be accomplished during theears.
t0 increase cotton acreageectares
nLi -'w "2 acreage0 hectares. Based2 yieldsentners per hectare, this planned acreage in Hungary would resultroduction0 metric tons. It is believed that these planned increases cannot be attained. Even if thc acreage is increased to the planned level, it is unlikely that yields can be maintained at22 centners per hectare) on the marginal land used to produce cotton.
Bulgaria plans to Increase cotton production0 metric tonsr8 percent above2 level0 metric tons. This planned increase ln probably higher than can be attainedear.
1*. Current Utilization.
Current utilization of cotton2 in the Soviet Bloc, as shown ln Tables estimatedillion netric tons, raw basis, an amount slightly exceeding the Indigenous productionillion metric tons.
Table 1
Current Utilization of Cotton in the Soviet Bloc
Quantity.
EndMetric Tons) Percent
Tbe difference between domestic consumption and production2 was more than offset by net* imports from the Westetricaw basis0 metric tons, ginnedetric tons to Communist Chinaetric tons to the European Satellites. Communist China's Imports from non-Bloc countries (principally from Pakistan) approximately balanced the
quantities of cotton are exported from the Soviet Bloc. ** Anetric tens is left available forand stocks. The cotton vould be ginned prior to The weight of ginned cotton is approximately one-third that of raw cotton.
deficiency In China's domestic production. The European Satellites, in addition to Imports froa non-Bloc countries, receivedetric tons from the USSR.
Aa is evident from the above pattern of Soviet Bloc trade In cotton, the USSRarge surplus above its own current requirements. Although Bloc plans call for large enough Increases In cotton production to make the Bloc self-sufficient in cotton and although increased efficiency Is expected to account for part of the planned increase, the cost of the additional cotton produced would probably average much higher than cotton Imported from non-Bloc countries. It therefore appears probable that the Bloc will continue, at least for some years, to rely on Imports to balance Itsrather than to force the expansion of production on marginal land, as would be necessary were attempts made to meet the planned production goals on schedule.
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SOURCES
All data relating to cotton acreage and production, except for
tlic sources noted below, are based on estimates node by CIA and by
the Office of Foreign Agricultural RelationsS Department
of Agriculture. These estimates, in turn, are based on Soviet
statistics collated and used in previously published CIA and OFAR reports.
C ?lfln ls baBCdCowist China's
ofthe Firflt Katlonal Committee
SC.olitical Consultative Conference
Original document.
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