INFORMATION"
INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
PRODUCTION AND UTILIZATION OF WOOL IN THE SOVIET2
CIA/RR83
warm
INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Office of Research and Reports
COHEEHTfi
Clip per Sheep
China
3- Future Plans
It. Current
Appc:idiX'--s
Appendix A. Sheep and Wool: Numbers, Production, and
Planned Production in the Soviet5 Plans (Table 3) 9
Appendix B. 13
CIA/RR Tf* Ml
i
ry
Wool production in the Soviet Bloc haslov upwurd trend since World War II, reaching the prewar level1 *ndit The weight of wool obtained2 is estimated0 metric tons.** This yield is less thanercent greater than the estimated prewar yield, although sheep numbers are more thanercent greater than prewar number?. The differenceower yield of wool per sheep. Pleece weight and quality have not recovered from wartime losses of high-quality wool-bearing sheep and from wartime negligence in breeding, nutrition, and management.
esultarge Increase in wool production In Asiatic USSR, wool production has risen more rapidly in the USSR since World War II than In other countries of the Soviet Bloc. Even though wool production in the European Satellites has recovered less rapidly, It is greater than prewar production. Wool production in Communist China is etill below prewar levels.
All the Soviet Bloc countries plan increases in sheep numbers In the next few years. On the whole, tha implied Increase in Bloc wool production (to anetric tons) appears unattainable, although some of the European Satellites probably will achieve their plans. Only the USSR has announced targets for wool production. The Fifth Five Yearrojects large gains both in thc overage yield per sheep and In sheep numbers, gains which. If achieved, wouldthan double wool production in the USSR1ringing it toetric tons. Actual wool production in the USSR5 is expected to roll far short of this goal.
his" memorandum contains information aval luble as ofS-** Estimates of wool given herein Include both apparel and enrpot wool (grease basis). All figures for wool production and sheep numbers arein Tableppendix A. These data do not represent meuo-ured quantities but are estlmutei; and approximations. The range of fluctuation in estimates Is no lees than pIub orercent.
PRODUCTION ANDOOL IN THE SOVIET BLOC"
Aboutercent of thc wool utilized ln the Soviet Bloc2 was used by agriculture, since it was too coarse Cor economical processing by the woolen Industry. Of theetric tons which werehousand metricercent) were produced domestically,6 thousand metricwere imported- The Soviet Bloc is likely to remain dependent on these Imports for some years If domestic and military consumption of woolen products is to be maintained at current levels. The amount of apparel wool produced ln the Bloc is more than adequate, however, to supply current military requirements, which are estimated0 metricear.
1- Postwar Trends.
Prewar wool production in the area now constituting the Soviet Bloc, estimatedetric tons, dropped during World Waroetric tons. Since the war, woolhaslow upward trend,otaletric tons Wool production in the Soviet Bloc countries2 is estimated atmetric tons, an Increase of0 metric tonsercent) overigures.
The USSR has remained the chief source of wool production in the Soviet Bloc area, accounting forercent8 andercent The urea of the European Satellites producedercent of the* andercent of the total Prewar production in China amounted to aboutercent of the2 production in China, to about lU percent of thc total.
Humbers-
* For purposes of comparison, figures for wool production in those areas now composing the European Satellites have been combined.
Since the end of World War II, sheep numbers ln the Soviet Bloc countries have increased steadily and were estimatedead at the beginningn increase ofercent over
numbers at the beginning1 andercent over prewar numbers In thc same area.
c. Average Clip per Sheep.
2 clip per sheep In the Soviet Bloc was generally below prevar levels despite efforts to raise the low level during theperiod. Comparative figures82 are shown In Table 1.
Table 1
Trend In Average Clip per Sheep in the Soviet62
8
a/
k
1
Bloc
Those areas currently Included in thc European Satellites.
2. 2 Production. a. USSR.
Wool production In the USSR proper2 is estimatedetric tons,ercent increase overetric tons produced1percent increase overetrlc tons produced
During the prewar period, European USSR produced aboutercent of the country's wool. Onlyercent or the wool currently produced In the USSR comes from European USSR. Thc most
S
important wool-producing regions* in European USSR are tbe Ukraine Region, the Southeast (Lower Don-North Caucasus) Region, the Volga Region, and thc Central Region. 2egions produced about Ql. percent of the wool In European USSR andercent of the wool ln the entire USSR. Theool-producing regions in European USSR Yieldedercent of the total Soviet production.
Asiatic USSR hasreater Importance than European USSRool-producing area since thc prewar period. ool production in Asiatic USSR amounted toercent of the total Soviet wool production. This productionubstantial gain over prewar figures, which indicate that this area producedf the total Soviet production 2 the Kazakhstan Region produced aboutercent of the wool in the USSR; the Central Asiatic Region, Ik percent; and the Transcaucasusercent. The Uralsnd West Siberia regions combined7 percent. The regions of East Siberia and the Far East combined producedercent of the total Soviet production.
b. European Satellites'.
The European Satellites produced0 metric tons, orercent, of the total wool production for the Soviet Bloc Rumania, producing k6 percent of the total European Satellite productionnd Bulgaria, producingercent, are the chief wool producers In thc European Satellites.
, c. Communist China.
Comwuilst China producedOO metric tons, or about la percent, of the total wool production for the Soviet Bloc Sheep numbers and wool produc'-lon have not yet reached their prewar level.
* The terra region ln this memorandum refers to economic regions us defined and numbered On CIA1 (First, USSR: Economic Regions-** Eas- of the Ural fountains.
Planned wool production in the Soviet Bloc5 is estimated0 metric tons (greasen increase ofetricercent) over1 total and an increase ofetricercent) over prevar production. On the whole, the implied increase in Bloc wool production appears to be unattainable, although some of the European Satelliteswin achieve their aims.
The5 Planpercent increase in sheep numbers and an average clip3 kilograms per sheep. If thisclip is attainedool production wouldetric tons, which is more than double the1 production.
It is believed that the planned increases in sheep numbers are unrealistic. Sheep numbers2 were near the record high, and the capacity of ranges and pastures as well as roughage resources are insufficient to maintain the planned increases in all classes of livestock at the same time. Thc planned increase in sheep mafbers would, of necessity,ownward revision of5 numbers planned for other classes of livestock, except possibly for swine.
The planned wool production5 Is also unrealistic. The average clip per sheep may be increased by better breeding, nutrition, and management practices,ractical effectuation of thc Planonger period than thc time allotted. For example, the clip per sheep in the USSR is still below the prewar level despite efforts to increase wool production since tbe end of the war.
An average3 kilograms per sheep will be Impossible to attainears,arge percentage of the sheep in the USSR are of the coarse-wool type. In thc US, where theof ncdlun- and fine-wool sheep Is larger, clip per sheep averagesilograms. Even in the US, however, increases in clip per sheep from year to year are relatively small.
Satellites.
The European Satellites have confined their planning to sheep numbers, and not all of the countries have plana extending
Plans of Albania, Hungary, Poland, and Rumania propose an increase in sheep numbers to6 million headr aboutercent above2 level9 million head. It Is believed that the planned incrcasea in sheep numbers can bein all of these countries except Hungary. lan, which envisions an increaseercent duringeriod, is unrealistic. The Bulgarian Plan, which envisionspercent Increase during* period, probably cannot be attuined, because of thc reduction In sheep numbers caused by2 drought. Czechoslovakia plans to increase sheep numberseadhoutercent greater2 numbers. This planned increase loittle higher than can be East Germany plans to increase sheep nisnbers toillion headr aboutercent greater than2 productionillion head. It is believed that these planned Increases can be attained.
Wool production plana of the European Satellites are not available. However, wool production should Increase at relatively the same rate as sheep numbers or perhaps slightly more rapidly if emphasis is placed on better nutrition and management practices.
c. Communist China.
Agricultural planning in Communist China docs not extend to
2 Plan for Ccemunist China called forpercent Increase In sheep numbers, but wool production was not Indicated.
*
If clip per sheep remained at1 level and the planned sheep numbers were attained, wool production2 is estimated0 metric tons, or about it percent less than the prewarofetric tons.
Sheep numbers have increased slowlyhc war lnChina and have not yet reached their prewar leveleed. Because of the limited feed and pastures, it Is not likely that sheep numbers were increased byercent2 along
uith planned increuses ln other classes of livestock.
Current Utilization.
2 total current supply (production and imports} of wool ln thc Soviet Bloc countries Is estimated atetric
tons (grease basis). Indigenous production suppliedetric tons, orercent of the total, requiring net imports of0 metric tons, orercent.
If all the wool produced In the Soviet Bloc countries were of suitable quality for processing by the woolen industry, it would more than fulfill the domestic and military needs for manufactured woolen products. hown the estimated current utilization of wool in the Bloc countries
Table 2
Current Utilization of Wool in the Soviet Bloc
EndMetric Tons) of Total
a! otal0 additional metric tons is left available for accretion and stocks.
Aboutercent of the currently utilized wool was too coarse for economical processing by the woolen induotry and woo utilized by agriculture. Of thoetricercent) which wereOO metricercent) weredomestically,0 metricercent) were
It Is believed that the Soviet Bloc countries will not be able to produce enough apparel wool to fulfill domestic and military requirements for manufactured woolen productsumber of years to come. If the5 planned wool production werethere would noteficit of apparel wool provided domestic military conaumption of woolen products remained at about current levels.
It is estimated that after other utilizations ofnd imports have been accounted for, the Soviet Bloc had enough wool or woolenetric tons, grease basis) available for accretion and stocks. uantity would be sufficient to supply current militaryetric tons) forears.
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Except for the sources noted below, all figures for woolond sheep numbers are based upon estimates made by CIA and the Office of Foreign Agricultural Relations, US Department of Agriculture. These estimates, ln turn, are based upon Sovietcollated and used in previously published CIA and OFAR reports.
In addition to the sources noted above, the following sources were used In the compilation of this memorandum: the Hew York Times,
The Fifth Five Yearov York,. b, and FBIS,, Far East, R.
Original document.
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