SECURITY IBPCfl>IAXIO!'I
PROVISIONAL UnELUGEHCE REPORT
f petroleum products bycultohe
CIA/RR PR-3'*
3
CIA HiSl'GRiCALPROGRAM RtiaSEASSANmZED
NOTICE
The data aod conclusions contained In this report do not necessarily represent tlie final position of ORR and should be regarded as provisional only and subject to revision. Additional data or comments uhich may be available to the user aro nolleited.
THIS rXCUt-Em COHEADB nffORHATlOIJ AFFECTING TJH! katiohal DEFENSE OF TBE UliTTED STATES WITHTH THE MEAHBJG OF THE ESPIOUAOE IAf,SC,, TBE TfiAHS-MISSIOH OR REVELATION OF IJHICH IH AMY. HAHHER TO AH UNAUTHORIZED FERSOH IS PROHIBITED BIT Lffil.
EELLIGSlKE AGENCY
Officecearch ami Reports
.
no cmanqh in class. v"
Lt DECLASSIFIED CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS, NEXT REVIEW DAT t: AUTH:
Page
Breakdown of 2
Type of Agricultural Machine
Petroleum
Economic
Appendixos
Appendix A. 8
nd
aad
3- Stationary ltotors in Agriculture and Tractors la tbe
Timber Industry 9
h. Preliminary Estimates of the Consumption of Petroleum
Products by Motor Transport in
Appendix B. Oops in
Tractors
a- nd
23
23
3< Stationary ltotors in Agriculture and Tractors In the
Timber Industry.
Page
k i Motor Transport in
5. Possible Further
Sources and Evaluation of
Chart
Folic-Ing Page
Estimated Consumption of Petroleum Products by Agriculture ln
the
CIA/RR PR-
(cSffl)
SECURITY DIPCRKAT1CB CONSUMPTION OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS BY SOVIET AGIICUITURE*
Summary
The Importance of agricultural tree tore, comblr.ee, and stationary motors as consumers of petroleum products la Illustrated by the fact that these unite consumed overercent of tbe distillate petroleum productsasoline, Heroine, kerosene, and diesel fueloanufactured in the USSR Consumption of petroleum products by theseillionillion metric tons per yearO Baaed on tho Fifth Five Year, agriculturalGbould increase5 million metric tons
Tractors accountery large part of the consumption of petroleum products by Soviet agriculture. esult, tractor kerosene le the most important Soviet agricultural fuel. Kerosene representedercent of all agricultural consumption Diesel fuel, however, ic becoming increasingly Importantractor fuel. Diesel fuel accounted forercent of the total fuel consumption by agriculturehere an it will account for almostercent of the total Ligrolne, important before the warractor fuel, has become less significant in the postwar period. Consumption of lubricants by agriculture le on tbe increase, partly because of the heavier requlremente of diesel tractors for lubricants.
It lo believedonsiderable degree of confidence may be placed ln these estimates, since It has been possible to derive data fron Soviet sources, Forecasts included in this report are based on an acceptance of tbe data in the Fifth Five Year Plan.
1. Introduction.
Tne significance of agricultureonsumer of petroleum products in the USSR Is iodlcatod by the fact that ogricultuial tractors, combines,
tnis report contains information as of* Tba consumption of petroleum products by motor transport in agriculture ls not reported in the body of the text,reliminary estimate ia given in Appendix A, Section h.
aod stationary no tore aro estimated to have consumed more thanercent of oil the petroleum products produced in the USSR More Important, these units consumed overercent of all the distillate petroleum products (gasoline. Heroine, kerosene, and diesel) produced la tho USSR in tbe same year. These ore the petroleum products which have particular strategic importance, cince tbey include the principal military fuels.
2. Breakdown of Consumption.
a. By Type of Agricultural Machine.
The estimated consumption of petroleum products by agriculture ln tlie USSR5urnnriaed in Tablend on the accompanying chart.** These estimates Include tbe petroleum products consumed by tractors, combines, and stationary motors in agriculture and the petroleum products consumed by tractors In the timber industry.
The amounts of petroleum products used for tho generation of electric power in agricultural installations ln the USSR are not included In these estimates. The petroleum products consumed by motor transport ia Soviet agriculture are also excluded from Uie present estimates, oincc it lo more convenient, wheng with tbe consumption of petroleum products In the USSR, to treat all motor transportnit. It is, however,hat there Is occasional need for estimates of the coasumption of petroleum products by motor transport in Soviet agriculture, and preliminary order-of-magnitude estimates for this item are presented ln Appendix A, Section k.
From the data presented land the accompanying chart, lt may be noted that consumption of petroleum, products by the agricultural machines indicated io estimated to have Increasedotalillion metric tonsC toillion metric tonsn Increase of aboutercent. Projected con Gumptionased on data from the Fifth Five Year,evel of5 million metric tons. This level would represent an Increase of U5 percent over the prewar level and ofercent over0 level.
Conckerablo confidence may bc placea in the estimates of past and present consumption of petrolcun products by agricultural tractors, as presented in Table 1. This lo especially true for the estimateshere the range of error should not exceed plus orercent, since these estimates are based oa Soviet figures concerning consumption of petroleum products (sec In the case of estimates
* ollows on p.* The chart. Estimated Consumption of Petroleum Products by Agriculture In the, follows p. 4.
riii'ni"!
Toblo 1
Estimatedf Petroleum Products byn tho USSR b/ by Types of
Million I'etjone
Tractors
sol
Motors and tbe Tint-
Footnotes ton p. 4.
Table 1
Eetlnatad Consumption oj of Petroleum Products by Agriculture ln the USSR b/ by Types ofContinued)
Million Metric Toot
leasts
All Products
Based on consumption of petroleum pe-oducts during operation, toes not IivI^jc fuels* lubrlcentc. and solvents used for maintenance aad overhaul of machines, nor does itetroleum products used by motor transport ln agriculture. b. Beeor tne derivation of these figures.
k -
ESTIMATED CONSUMPTION OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS BY AGRICULTURE IN THE
8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5
AA AW-YW Plan
BBjBjMM J
ccmcornlna present one' pant coasunpticm toy combines, the range of crror ahould not exceed plus or ulna isercent. Care should be exercised In using the estimates covering stationary motors and tractors in the timber industry. It seesD probable, bouever, that the over-all estimates ofby ecrlculture should net be in error by mare than plus or minusercent for past and present periods. Since estimates for thore based largely oa Fifth Five Year Plan data, it la not possible to ostlmate tho degree of error which cay be present.
Tne accompanyinc chart presents graphically the total consumption of petroleum products toy the agricultural machines shown In Table 1. From the chart lt may be noted that tlie consumption of all typos of petroleum products by tho do ocricultural machines decreased0, Talo decrease wasesult of tbe depletion of tho Soviet tractor park during World War II. onsumption of all typoc of petroleum products baa been Increasing annually, although tbe rates of (jrouth in tbe demand for various products have differed. 05 the upward trend ln the consumption of almost all petroleum products in expected to continue.
b. By Petroleum Product.
As will be coon from the chart, kerosene wan the principal agricultural fud in tho prewar period aad In expected to continue to be the moat lnportant fuel, fciaatltatlvely. The relative Importance of kerosene, however, la expected to decline. erosene accounted fororccat of all petroleum products consumed by agriculture. 1 this percentace had fallen to aboutorcent, end5 it la exacted to decline to Just underercent.
Dlasol fuel, on tbe other hand, has become more important us an agricultural fuel In the postwar period because the pro port Ion or tho tractor park which lo dloDel-pcvorod baa been steadily Increasing. losel fuel accounted forercent of all petroleum products consumed by agriculture,1 lt accounted forercent, and5 It Is expocted to account for almostercent.
Tne doraand for both fuels lncreaoec absolutely during tie periods ccosideroJ, but tbe demand for kerosene is expected to Increase by onlyercenthereao tie demand for oloeel fuel In agriculture lo expected to increaee byercent during the orae period. This Increase ro Civets the Increasine number of diesel tractors used ln agriculture.
Hcwlnc is becoming procure naively leac important no an acrlcultural fuel. igrolne accounted for aboutercent of the total
> -
agricultural requirements. igrolne accounted forercent of the total agricultural consumption. The decreased importance of ligrolne tractors accounts for this decreased consumption.
The consumption of gasoline and lubricants accounts for the remainder of tha consumption of petroleum products by agricultural tractors, combines, and stationary motors. Gasoline consumption, never quantitatively an important part of the total consumption of these units, neverthelessignificant lccre ace0 Thieesult of Increased requirements for gasolinetarter fuel for tractors consuming heavier petroleum products aad of the increased consumption of gaeoliae by combines. Die consumption of lubricants alsoignificant increase, particularly because diesel tractora, which account for an increasingly large part of the tractor park,igher percentage of lubricants in relation to basic fuels.
c. By Economic Region.*
reakdown of total consumption of fuel by agricultural tractors, combines, and stationary motors in the USSR by economic regions Because the breakdown was made on the basis1 Plan data and Is not considered to be accurate, only the totalof all petroleum products by these agricultural machines has been prorated to the various economic regions. These estimates must be regarded asange of possible error of plus or mimicercent0rogressively larger range thereafter.
Prom this breakdown it may be noted that Economic Regions III,I, and VII account for the greatest consumption of fuel by these agricultural machines. Thego four regions, taken together, account for overercent of tbe total consumption of petroleum products by Soviet agriculture.
* Tne term region in this report refers to the economic regions defined endSSR: Economic Regions. ** ollows.
Table 2
Estimated Regional Consumption of Petroleum Products by Agriculture ln the5
Economic Region
Hortbvcst (Xa)
Northern European USSR (lb)
Baltic (ila)
BelorusBla (lib)
Ukraine (III)
Lower Don-North Caucasus (XV) Transcaucasus (V) Volga (VI)
Central European USSR (VII)
Urals (VIII)
llest Siberia (DC)
Kazakh SSR (Xa)
Central Asia (Xb)
East Siberia (Xl)
Par East (XII)
Amount (Million Metric Toss)
9
b
6
5
0 1
7
Percent of
Total*
0.6
0.6
3.2
2
6
9.6
8.0
5-1
4.9
2.9
1.1
* Footnote references in arable numerals are to sources listed in Appendix C,
APFSKDIX A
METHODOLOGY
1 - Agricultural Tractors -a-
Consumption of petroleum products by agricultural tractors Is calculated by multiplying tbe average consumption of pstroleum products par hectare* of tractor work by tbe numbers of hectares of tractor work In order to do this. It Is necessary to know tbe total number of hectares of tractor work performedear, broken down Into hectares worked by kerosene, diesel, and ligrolne tractors, together with tbe average fuel expenditure per hectare by each of these types of tractor In tbe same year, fortunately, Soviet sources have supplied all the factors necessary for making these calculations for tractors in machine tractor stations (MIS's) The task has been simplified by tbe fact that Soviet reports of tractor performance for all types of tractor work aroby Soviet statisticianstandard accounting unitthe hectare of soft plowingso that there le no necessity to take Into account the effect of different types of tractor work on fuel consumption.
etails the calculation of tbe consumption of fuels and lubricants by agricultural tractors located ln the MTS'o,1 Consumption ofnd consumption of gasoline used for starting tractors using heavy fuels are calculated from Soviet norms for expenditure of these productsercentage of total fuel expenditure.
All data supplied by Soviet sources deal only with tbe tractors located in tbe ICS's, and no similar data vere found for tractors on State farms- Xa order to estimate tbe fuel consumption of all agricultural tractors ln the USSR, it was necessary to use estimates of the percentageotal agricultural horsepower owned byfS's. This task was mode easier by tho fact that Soviet sources usually discuss tractors in terms of an accountinghorsepover tractorand because Soviet sources provide data on the productivity of this accounting unit. The validity of this method also depends on the unverified assumption tliat on the land worked by the State farms there Is the seme percentage breakdown between hectstes worked by kerosene, llgroine, and diesel tractors.
* One hectare1 acres-** ollows on p. 9.
Seviot sources indicate that4 percent off the Soviet agricultural tractor pork vas located la the MXS'o. Tj It hao been assumed that thlo porccntsgc una the same. It has boon estimated that5 porcont of the total agricultural tractor park was located In the MXS'a. 6/ resentB estimates of the consumption of petroleum products by all agricultural tractors In the USSR derived by applying these porcontage estimates to tho data included ln Table 3
Table 4
Estimated Consumption of Petroleua Products by all Agricultural Tractors In the1
Metric Tons
Petroleum. Frcdncta
Since the data Inore supplied cccxdately from Soviet sources, the estimates of fuel consumption by tractors In tbe MZS's arc as reliable aa the Soviet data themselves. In preparingt Is possible tbat tLo estimate of tbe percentage of total agricultural tractor horsepower located in tbe MTS's Is not accurate, but the error introduced by tbe use of thlo percentage should not exceed plus orercent. The estimates of coniiunptioa of lubricants and ganollne coy be somewhat low, since they are derived irom Soviet norms, which may bo optimistic. The effect of this error on the total consumption of petroleum products should be negligible, since lubricants and gasoline constitutemall part of totalon.
b. 0.
Tto.hectare approach used above io also used ia estimating tho coaoimption of petroleum products by agricultural tractors during tlie bono yearnd the. Data supplied by the Fifth Five Year Plan permit this aniroach. Tho hectares worked by the different
-
types of tractor vere, however, computedifferent method. The else and breakdown of the park of acrlcultural tractors has been attempted and used In conjunction with the average outiut per tractor-
0 the USSB hod an estimated tractor parkunits (see* and the average yearly output per tractorectares of soft plowing. According to the Fifth Five Year Plan tbe agricultural tractor perk Is to growercent, and the yearly outputhorsepover tractor unit la to lncreaaeercent0Thc Increase ln the tractor park seems to be quite feasible, since anIn tbe park ofercentearslower rate of net growth than was the case during the last years of the Fourth Five Year. Tlie planned increase In the productivity ofractor unit also seems within the realm of possibility, since overage prewar tractors can be expected to drop out of the park through depreciation, and new, more efficient tractors will take their place. In any event, no alternative estimates of the productivity of the Soviet tractor park during there presently available, and, therefore. Fifth Five Year Plan data were used -in this report.
On this basis, there le presented lnhe estimated size of the agricultural tractor parkhorsepover unite, as veil ashorsepover tractor unit, for the- In addition to05 data, derived as indented1 data are also derived from Soviet sources. , for vhlch no direct evidence is available, the Increases in numbershorsepover tractor units and productivity per unit necessary to reach5 planned levels have been equally prorated to each of these years.
The breakdown of tbe tractor park into different types of treetor0 makes use of the statementoviet soiree that.5 percent of tho agricultural tractor park horsepower vasnd that,pproximately one-third of tbe horsepower van This vould mean, apparently, that the diesel tractor park Increased. orhoreepover units. Fromt vlll be seen that the entire tractor parket Increasehoraepovor units Thla means that aboutercent of the not additionshorsepover tractor units to the park1 vere diesel. Tnis percentage has been used In determining the net number of diesel units vhlch were added to the park1 Thetractor units added in each year are considered to be kerooene-fusled. In the case of ligrolne tractors It ls estimated that there vcrohoreepover units ln tbe parkincendicates that ligrolne tractorsotal6 million hectares of work, and thehoroopower unitectares of work in tho same period.0horoepower units aro arbitrarily held constant through the period.
ollows on
-
5
, Eetlaated Size of the Agricultural Tractor Pork of tho USSR and Estimated Average ProductivityHoroepouer Tractor Unit
Year
5
Tractororsepower Unlto)
Estimated ProductivityBorsepower Tractor Unit (Hectares of Soft Plowing)
/
/
539
59^
649
704
State Apartment estimate.b. Soviet
resents the estimated composition of the Soviet tractor park derived froa these assumptions. In order to obtain the numbers of
Table 6
Estimated Composition of thector Park of the USSR
Thoucanu i';-Horsencwer Tracter UnltF.
Types of Tractor
-
hectares worked each year by each type of tractor, the numberhoroe-power tractors of each type la multiplied by the average output per tractor. The resuite are preoented io Table 7- Ihe1 has been omitted from Tableince data for thla year have already been preoentod ln Table 3.
Table 7
Estimated Hectares Worked by the Agricultural Tractor Park of the USSR, by Types of Tractor. . 0
Million Hectares of Soft Plowing
Types of Tractor
finally, to arrive at fuel consumption for the years0he number of hocorked by each type of trector la multiplied by the average fuel expenditure per hectare of that particular type of tractor. Fuel consumption factors1 ere used for all years0 Though fuel consumption per hectare decreased7here Is nothat further decreases vlll necessarily occur, since1 fuel consumption per hectare la already bolovevcl. Tableummarizes the concurnition of petroleum products by agricultural tractors In the USSR calculated from the foregoing discussion. Consumption of lubricants and starting gasoline vas again calculated on the basis of Soviot norms, with the email uiiicrence that no attempt has been made to brook down the coogucption of these products an between tho different, typos of kerosene tractors, and an average for all types of kerosene tractors was used Instead.
The range of error present ln these estimates vould appear to be somewhat greater than that present In the estimatesThe estimates0 should not bo ln error by more than plus or minusercent. Tho estimatesre subject to progressively greater possible error, since they aro based on the Fifth Five Tear Plan. All the estimates of consumption of lubricants and starting gasoline may be somewhat low.
5 ollows on
Table 6
Estimated Consumption of Petroleum Products by all Agricultural Tractors ln tbe0
.Metric Tons
Product
2. Combiner..
Consumption of petroleum products by agricultural combines is estimatedethc! similar to that used for agricultural tractors. Briefly,by combines is calculated by multiplying tbe number of hectares harvested by combines by the unit fuel consumption per hectare. The problem lo simplified by the fact that all combines are believed to operate on gasoline. It le complicated, however, by the fact that there aro two basic types of cocbino in operation ln tho USSB: tractor-drawn and self-propelled combines. Both types are motor-driven, but the self-propelled coobiacsmore fuel per hectare. It le therefore necessary to break down tba number of hectares harvested by combines Into the amounts harvested by oach of tie two types ofince this breakdown Is not directly available from Soviet sources, it has been node on the basis of tbe estimatednd product lvif the different types of combine in the Soviet park.
The number of total bectarco of grain crops harvested by combines01 has been estimated on the bonis of Soviet information. Since the Fifth Five Tear Plan Indicates no increase ln tho Dumber of liectares of grain crops, it has been assumed that for tbet will remain constant at1 level. Soviet sources supply theof total hectares of grain harvested by combinec0nd the planned percentage increase25 * This increase has beenially to each of the years3 Tablehows the estimates which have been made of hectares harvested by combines.
ollows
9
Estimated hectares of Grain Crops Earvested by Comblnee
In the
1 2 3 4
Total Hectares of Grain Crops
nns) Harvested
bylj*// 0 0/
Beetares Horveoted by Combines
6 3 6 O 4
a> Fifth Five Year Plan.
Table IC* Ghcvs tbe estimates of the cccaxMltlon of the combine park used ln calculatlne fuel consumption by combines. Tables prepared on the basis of the following facts and assumptions.
production of combines io assumed to have beenbetween the Kixnnunar
rewar combines were destroyed by tbe
Cceblceo oro acoumed toervico life ofears.
number of postwar cosfcines delivered to agriculture, withbotucen oolf-propelled and tractor-drawn models, is based on CIA
estimates of production.
combines produced prior7 are assumed
Tableollows onefers to Stallnata.
RE
-
10
Estimated Composition of the Combine Perk or the USSR
Thousand Caii-loea
Types of 1 2 3 3K* 5
Prewar Cotblncsrcvn Medals
3 O 0
Komi 4 0 0
Postwar Coablnas Tractor-Drawn Models Kccaaanar
B-6
Self-Propelled
Subtotal Total
utilization factor ofercent has been applied to combines delivered to agriculture during tbe year of delivery.
Yearly dellvcrloo of combines to agriculturerc assumed to be madeateercent lower tbat that calculated. This assumption has been made, sincendicated that the number of hectares harvested by conblnco will increaseercent per year, whereas it increases ot an average ofercent per year0
Ia determiningf hectares harvested by tho various types of combine, use has been made of Soviet data concerning the productivity of different models of combines. Table IC shows tie estimated composition of the combine park, and Tableshows the estimated hectares harvested by various models. The rated productivity ofnd tho Konainar modoleectares pernd that ofodelectares per hour,
Tableollows on
-
11
Estimated Bcctorccin Crops Harvested by ffodels of Combines la the
MUllOD Hoc tore c
Mode In of Cceibines
2 tines that of the other Tho productivity ofouel ic unknown, but It Is assumed to be tie nan? as that of, alnce both combines are powered by the same motor. In preparingse Is mode of these productivity weight lacs. In addition, tho anouaption has been made that each type of combine is ln operation for an equal period of tin? during tho year.
In calculating the fuel and lubrlcent conauaption of combines, Soviet fuel conoumptloa ratesllograme par hectare forndilograms per hectare for self-propelled combines 2j/ have been used. onsumption ofas been calculated on thebasle of the Soviot norm for the consumption of lubricants per hectare. etails these calculations. 07 estimates are Included on oarbitrary basis.
Three major possible sources of error enter Into tola calculation. First if the number of prewar combines in the park is smaller than that estimated, agreater proportion of the harvesting work will be tan* by tho self-propelled combines, whichigher fuel consumption rota. The revoroe is equally true. Second, it Is possible that some trsctor-drawn combine modeLs do not have motors, since It lo known that expsrhncnts have boon made with this type of If large numbers of these models are In use, the estimated petroleum consumption will be on the high side. Finally, theand consumption factors which have been used may bo somewhat in error, since they ore boned on Soviet norms and rated earecltleo, which may be optimistic. For these reasons. It Is felt tl-at the range of error present ln thene estimates nay bo as much as plus or minusorcoat.
S Stationary >btoro In iVirlculturc onu 'f.n the Timber Industry .
Information on tbeoe consuming units is extremely scanty ln the Soviet sources which were examined. It was felt thai, further research on this oubject vould not yield Information which woult. fiubot->nttally revise
Tnhl> Ifl follows on p.
Table 12
Eetlaated Consumption of Petroleua Products by Combines In tbeO-55
Million Metric Tons
Consumed
Models Kbsaipioar Models
Begli-Sible
0
0
odels
Consumed
estimates of consumption uhicb have been used previously. Earlier estimates of annual consuaption by these units haveillion metric tons. Tbls has been arbitrarily divided5 million metric tons of diesel5 million mstric tons of gasoline. Lubricant consumption by these units is considered negligible*
' Preliminary Estimates of the Consumption of Petroleum Products by Motor Transport in Apiculture.
The present state of knowledge about the composition and utilisation of tho agricultural motor transport park lnSSR Is such that no accurate estimate can be mode of tbe consumption of petroleum products by motor It is possible, however, touess on the order of magnitude of this consumption. (See
1 Plan shows tbat the People's Ccemd.ssariat of Agriculture was4 percent of the total ton-kilometers of motor transport for the whole of the USSR; tbe People's Commissariat of State1 percent; the People's Commissariat of the Timber4 percent; and the People's Commissariat for Agriculturalercent. Thus the planned ton-kilometera of motor transport involved in Soviet agriculture1 was the equivalentercent of tbe total planned ton-kllometere of motor transport in the USSR.
* Tableollows on
-
Tabic 13
Calculated Consumption of Petroleum Products by Motor Transport ln Agriculture In tbe
Performed by All Motor Transport (Billion ToG-Klloacterp)
Ton-Kilometers Performed by
Motor Transport in Agriculture
(Billion Ton-Kilometers'
Consumption of Petroleum Products _by Motor Tvansport ln Agriculture
Gasoline (Thousand frfetrlc Tons)
-
Tbe total too-kllcce torb run by tbe entire DOtor transport parlc of the USER have been estimated in en oarller report In addition, the incroaoe in motor transport planned5 In tne Fifth Five Year Plan ls known to beoercent ofr< level. It Is therefore possible tooapleteseries for all years0 Inactor for expenditure for gasoline per ton-kilose tor also has beenetrlc tons per If It is assumed that for all the years under consideration, agricultural motor transport accountedercent1 Plan figure) of the total ton-Kilometers of motor transportit le possible to derive the consumption of petroleum products by motor transport In agriculture shown In Table In addition. It in pooolble to estimate that the consumption of lubricants by motorIn agriculture willercent of the gasoline Ro approximation of the consumption of diesel fuel by motor transport la agriculture Is presented, since no Information is availablehich to base such an approximation. The approximations of the consumption of petroleum products shown in Tablere subject to an extremely wide range of error.
APPE'JDIX B
GAPS IK DfTELLIGEHCE
Tbe purpose of this appendix is to indicate wherein tbe material upon which this report isis inadequate and wherein coverage of the subject is incomplete. This is done both to enable better evaluation of the estimates presented and to point out where further research may prove of value.
1. Agricultural Tractors.
Though data on the consumption of petroleum products by the tractor park of tbo MTS's for these years have been supplied completely by Soviet sources aad no further research in this area la Justified, tbe lack of information on consumption by agricultural tractors other than those of the MTS's creates an important source of error ln est lea tea of totalby tractors la agriculture. These data have not been found for postwar years. Tbey would be of great value if given at some future date in Soviet publications, or if estimated on the basis of intense research.
The estimates for tbe0 could bo mode more accurate either if an exact breakdown0 nondeesel horsepower between ligrolne and kerosene horsepower could be made, or if Soviet publications subsequentlyreakdown of hectares worked by the different fuel-type tractors that obviates the necessity of estimating the composition of the tractor park. It should be stressed tbat all efforts should be made to make this estimate as precise as possible0 will undoubtedly bo usedase year in Soviet staMstlcs.
e- -
Estimatesre based on data from the Fifth Five Year Plan. The Plan figures on Increases in tractor horsepower and in output per tractor unit should be revised as further material becomes available. Important factors not oupplied by the Plan aro the comparative numbers of diesel tractors and kerosene tractors to be added to the park duringear period, aad Information as to whether or not the present rates of fuel consumption per hectare are to decrease. The latter la particularly Important, as is shown by the fact that7 fuel consumption factors1 results in an error ofillion metric tons.
ee.
Tbe estimates of consumption of petroleum products by combines are not as reliable as estimates of consumption by tractors. It Is firmly believed, however, that the amount of time already devoted to research on this subject is the maximum that can be spent profitably. It is doubtful that further research would uncover more accurate Information. The present estimates are the result of considerable research andomplex The results obtained are believed to represent the extreme limits to vhlch estimates of consumptioningle category of petroleum-ccaisumlng equipment can be carried.
3- Stationary Motors In Agriculture and Tractors ln the Timber Industry.
No over-all statistics have been found on consumption of petroleum products by stationary motors in agriculture end tractors In the timber To estimate tbe inventory of equipment and find consumption factors ln both these fields vould require elaborate research vhlch would not necessarily produce reliable results. In view of this fact, and since the amount of petroleum Involved is thought to be extremely small. It wasmore practical to make an arbitrary estimate.
4. Motor Transport ln Agriculture.
Essential prerequisite to accurate estimates of the petroleum products consumed by motor transport ln Soviet agriculture are accurate data on the Inventory of the truck park In agriculture and on its utilization. Alternatively the ton-kilometers performed by trucks in agriculture vould be necessary. These data are not available, nor ia it anticipated that it vill be possible to obtain acceptable estimates of these Items except by the most painstaking and lengthy research. This, in short,ap in present Intelligence which wiU not readily ^filled.
It Is fortunate, therefore, that the need for an estimate of theof petroleum products by motor transport in Soviet agriculture is one which la quite specialized and not generally required for intelligence purposes. As has been implied In this report, estimates of tbe consumption of petroleum products by all motor transport In the USSB aro presently available. Presently available Intelligence, however, does not permit accurate Itemizing of these estlmatee for the sectors of motor transport attached to agriculture or to other economic or political subgroups of the Soviet economy-
5- Possible Further Refinements.
The breakdown of agricultural consumption by regions presented ins based on distribution of thes by regions according tolan. Obviously, more recent information sliould be used, but it is not
- 2'. -
RES
obtainable, and tbe concentrated reocarch neceasary to improve these estimates uculd require more time than Is available.
No attempt vas made touarterly breakdownl petroleum consumption by agriculture. This breakdown would be of value ln Indicating when agriculturalor petroleum products vould compete with possible wartime military requirements. In order to obtain thlait would be necessary to find Indexes of the distribution of tractea-work and combine work during tbe year.
-fCTED
APPENDIX C
SOURCES Aim EVALUATION OF SOURCES
of Sources.
This report use prepared largely froa publlabed Soviet Bource materials. Fifth Five Year Plan figures were used in estimating the growth in size and productivity of tho agricultural tractor and combine parks, since no other figures ore as yet available. Information on the composition, utilization, and fuel consumption of the Soviet agricultural tractor park was based largely on data from Soviet technical and agricultural Journals. Information from these publications is considered to be reliable, since it was prepared for internal use by Soviet management and planners. Where published,Soviet source materials failed to provide tbe necessary data, recourse was bad to intelligence estimates based on analysis of Soviet source material. Among the best of these were reports from the Department of State,ntelligence
The range of error believed to be present in each component estimate in this report is discussed in some detail in the sections of the report in which the estimates are developed.
Evaluations, following tbe classification entry and designatedave the following significance:
Source of
ompletely- Confirmed by other sources
sually- Probably true
airly- Possibly true
ot usually- Doubtful
ot- Probably false
annot be- Cannot be Judged
Evaluations not otherwise designated are those appearing on tbe cited document; those designated "RR" are by the author of this report. Ko "RR" evaluation is given when tbe author agrees with the evaluation of tbe cited document.
1. ,1 State Plan for tbe Development of the
Rational Economy of the OSSB. Bate07 taken from Haiihinao-Troktornaya Stoatslya.
Mo. U. Eval. HB 2.
Data1 taken from Sotr-lallsticbeskoye Sel'skoye Khozyayntvo (Sociallot U. Eval- BR 2.
taken fron Department of State, OIR, IctelllKcnec
Major Developments In Soviet AgricultureL R.
07 taken fron Hnshinno-Traktornaya Stsntslya, Uo. 9>
Swd..2
Data1 taken from Sotslalisticbeskoyc Sel'skoye Khozyaystvo, op. cit. Eval. RR 2
Svlrshcbevskly, Eksploatatslya mapiilnno-traktornogo parka
(Utilization of tbe Machine-Tractor- U. Eval. RR 2.
Ibid.
Mashlnno-Traktornaya Stantslya,, P- 2* O. Eval. RR 2.
Pianovoye Khoxyaystvo (Planned U- Eval. RR 2.
Department of State, OIR ^Intelligenceit.
Ibid.
Izyestiya, U.
A. Kuropotkln, Voprosy ekononikl BetvennogoSSR
(Problems of Economics of Agricultural labor In the. U. Eval. RR 2.
of State, OIR.Intelligenceraft Power in
Soviet Agriculture,. 3- Department of State, OIR,Intelligence A..
15> Pianovoye Kbozyaystvo,. 8. U. Eval. RR 2.
SotBlallstlchcskoyc Sel'skoye Khozyaystvo,. 5- U. Eval. RR 2
Sel'khozmaahina (Agricultural- 2. U. Eval. RR 2-
P. Kolouiitsev, Tckhnicheskoye ocnachcheniye sol'skogo khozyaystva
(Tho Technical Equipment of- 9- RR Bel'khozmashlna,. 2- U- Eval. RR 2.
Fortnov, Samokhodnyy kombain (The Self-Propelled
p. 4. U. Eval. RR 2.
Scl'kaozgnshina,. 2. U. Eval. RR 2.
1 khozroafiilna,P- U, Eval. RR Portnov, op. cit.
24. Sel'khoznndilna,P- U. Eval. RR CIA/RRivil Consumption of Petroleum Products ln the USSR, TS- Classification of this excerpt, R. Eval. RK 1.
Jbid.
B.V. Losikov. Lukasbevlch, Keftanoye Tovardovediye gostoptckhlzdat
eningrad.
flfcsMUltllili
In addition to tne above specificeneral screening was made of all the issues available in tbe Library of Congress of the following Soviet periodicals for the:
Mnfhtnno-'iYaktoraaya Stantslya (Machine Tractor Station) Sotslallstichcskoye Sel'skoye Khozyaystvo (Socialist'khozpaahina (Agricultural Machinery)
raktornaya Pronyshlennogt' (Automobile and Tracer
(Planned Economy)
Voprosy Ekonomiki (Problems lnonsiderable number of Soviet books and relevant reference material uere also consulted.
-
Original document.
Comment about this article, ask questions, or add new information about this topic: