Cfcinf, V
Chief of .tfitlon, -'uat-.li ale
ioritv a: ei^nocnta
rometerii3
I. It is believed that tho previously reported gonoral attitude or hopelessness, with regard to the efficacy of Internal force capable of changingonditions, has been somewhat modified by events observed during the reporting period. Agaii It is impossible to accurately raeaaure the extent to whichattitudes havo been modified,tno following Items are considered sl^oniflcant since they may indicaterend toward appreciable changes ln factorsto the "paycholo^ical barometer."
a. Politically there Is evidence that discontent with theadministration is spreading to high level members of t' government Itself. Sources believodeliable havo ro-ported-that Charnau|Wfci'ONALD, Mlnlater of Government, and Carloja^BALPAMA Sandoval, Minister of Communications and Publ: Works, are both discontented and are considering resigning rrora their cabinet positions. Discontent Is furtherby the known fact that aany influential persons who formerly supported tho government, or were neutral regarding Internal conflicts, have begun to manifest anti-government,entiments. Representative members of tha latter group have for the first time appeared at tho iinbass; to oxii.rose their views. Since political opportunism is bo pronounoed in Guatemala, suoh individuals probably arethemselvesatter of future aelf-proteotion should the present government be replaced by an antl-CommunJ regime. The significance lies In the .'act that they arethemselves. It ap-ears that thoy are lessake an anti-government stand, possibly convinced that the present administration will not survive. It should be noteromo of the so persons have expressed themselves toavor of tho original political and economic objectives of the revolution| but thoy nowe present ,
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Conv.iunist-Infiltrated administration has deviatedthe original aims, it la also apparent tnat tho arrival. Ambassador has engendered opt: ml am incirclesar in pro-;overnnent circles. Tiie hopef attitudeignificant number of peopleummed U'in-lo question; Is heo do something? Tt should bo added, howover, that there Is widespread vuirjcnos. with rogard todefinition of "soraothlnr." As yet there docs not appear to be any substantial evidonce that interna forces have boon sufficiently lnarlred to do "something" fo; themselves. Nonetheless, the vary presenceew andvigorous and outspoken Ambassador has certainly helped to oncourage some hope that the situation might* bo remedied, "whether such hope, so tenuously based on the more presenco of an individual, ia wishful thinking remains to be seen.
Concurrently with the !'oregolng developments there ia renew, speculation of impending revolts and invasions aimed at ovei throwing the present government. l*-hour period threo reports from three aourcea, all believed to be rellabl stated that revolt was expected. The government has report* boon alerted, and according to one source the Air s'orce is patrolling theSalvador border and tho Pacific coast in anticipation of invasion and/or the clandestine entry of arras and ammunition. Without discounting the possl billty of revolt, one source reported that there is some speculation that these stories hava been planted bv tho government in order to forestall conspiracies or to rally support for the government. Whatever the origin of the revolt talk, lt is believed significant in that it represent unrest and still another sign of renewed hope in anthat until very recently was characterised by nothing but hopelessness.
In connection with the topic of revolt it should bo noted th there is considerable talk among anti-govornment individuals to tho effeot that exiled Colonel CASTILLO Armas is not genuinely oppoadd to the present government but ia inounter-revolutionary In tho pay of the ARUHNZSTILL0 Armas has reportedly boon recruited by a) BENZ (andoretense of organizing an invasio and thereby prevent effective action by genuine revolutlonar These allegations have not been confirmed. Again they could be inspired by the government in order to undermine conflden in CASTILLO Ajnas or to discourage other revolutionary minde groups within Guatemala or abroad.psychological ba meter" standpoint such reports. If given widespread credence could serve to sustain the previously reported hopelessness.
Confllot within and between the official political partlca became prominent again durlnc thla reporting period. nowspaoera reported strong objections within the official parties to Comitunlst domination. There were the usual denials of conflict and the usual claims of "revolutionary unity." Undoubtedly hostility toward the Communists exists within the official family and It Is considered anotherof the anti-government, antl-Conrrunlst andmanifestations cited ln the openinr- portions of this report.
. Economically,e becoming more favorable for the ^enorutlon of anti-government, anti-Communist sentiments. Hard times" Is the central theme of economic conversations atela. Dissatisfaction is spreading because of tiie government's apparent inability to pay wa&es on time. School teachors and employees of the highway department are especlall hard hit. There ishortage of money lnsales of staple products are reported to be ho* belowhortage of sugar has been proclaimed and then denied for the paat two weeks (actually it appears that tho distribution system has broken down and there la no real sho'ta^e, Nonetheless, tho failure totheo the consumer has caused some inconvenience, some abuses ln sales, and charges of government roaponsibllity for the notiscontent la also expresaod with regard to riaina prices for basic commodities. No figures can be cited to prove oralleged price rises, but for tiie purposes of thla report the important thing to be noted is discontent. Justified or not, due to an alleged or real pinch on the consumer.
Another widely publicized topic in the economic sphere during the reporting period has been tne price and distribution of meat. Dlatributora have protested that they cannot profitably sell meat at the prices establlahed by the government. Some of the dlatributora have bean fined for exceeding price ceilings; they retaliated by threatening to go on strike; whereupon tho government deolored Its Intention to makeItself if the distributors strike. This situation illustrates the many different problems which add upotal ooonomic situation that ia becoming Increasingly serious and which the government apparently cannot solve therebyfurther hostility toward Itself.
During the reporting period the President himselferins of round-table conferenooa anparently in an effort to solve some of the pressing problems and shore up the saoging economy. Observed reactions Indicated that the public at large does not expect much from these conferences, probably because of the general belief that the baaic problem is Comirunlsm from which all other problems arise.
> miscellaneous Item of Interest for "barometer" purposes Is tho much discussed fact that public nnd rsoncl suc.irlty is increasingly jeopardizedharp rise in robberies and assaults which can bo ex7>lained ln terns of economicur.usiT.-loy. -lit, hiTh prices,nd tho braakdwen of dis-ciplino due tounist preachments on the rights or the "masses" without regard to the responsibilities inherent in the so-called rightsan. However explained, it isporo note that ths police and the -ovornaicnt are aeld ri-'sronslble for tne higher crime rates and public confidence In the rovernment io apparently underminedesult.
Kenneth ii. Uivlooh
3
3LT/cahaeh
1-Plloi
Original document.
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