SOVIET BLOCr.ARi) TOL
(Prepared by the Central Intelligence Agency)
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This information is designed primarily to answer the question, "Does the Soviet Bloc need Middle East oil (from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Bahrein, Qatar and Kuwait-Saudi Arabia Neutral Zone) tolobal war effort?"
Data contained inhow the estimated balance of requirements and availability of POL in the Soviet Bloc2omparison of wartime requirements^ with the preceding peacetime availabilities. It will be noted that total Soviet Bloc military petroleum requirements for the first yeareneral war can be satisfied from Soviet Bloc production by eliminating exports andeduction on civilian supply of approximatelyercent. During the first year of World Wareduction of more thanercent in civilian POL supply was sustained by the German economy without impairing its effective operation.
3> The Soviet Bloc is estimated to be able toar to the limit of its total forceseriod of one year on its own petroleum resources and without the necessity of external supply, assuming no attrition to facilities. Further, it is estimated that the undamaged Soviet Bloc could continue to supply itself in an amount of approximatelyillion tons annually.
Stockpiling has not been evaluated into the figures in Table A. The total Inventory(working and strategic) ofpetroleum products in the Soviet Dloc is estimated to beillion and IV million tons. It is assumed that tlie strategic stockpile does not exceedercent toercent of this total, which wouldurther cushion of POL to the Soviets.
5. After the initiation of hostilities, many new factors would be in operation to change the Soviet Bloc petroleumand availability. These include possible attrition of facilities in the Soviet Bloc and the supplying of therequirements of Western Europe in the event of Soviet occupation. Estimates of the probable extent to which the Soviets could utilize Middle East oil after the completion of the first phase atomic offensive against the Bloc have been made by the Intelligence staffs of the Military Services, prominently in the Department of the Air Force. Such estimates have not been made by CIA.
I7i>
Table
Estimated BeQUirgmrnts and Availability Balance of Petroleum ElffllUfiAfl It) the Soyjot rjpc. durinfi'ji',otnp'irPd toeneral war, assuming no attrition.
(Thousand Hotric Tons)
Crude2/
Crude distillationproducts
JO/
1?/
Total
Imports irom
Total products
xu
700
Total
Exports to the12/
TOTAL
B/LAMCK (Unaccounted for
and Stock
Footnotes to Table "ft'
1/ Sane asR Contribution toRR Office-Wide S
2/ OKR, "Selected Data on Soviet Bloc1 S
1/R Contribution toile data. S
it/R Contribution tond iVP file data. S
R Contribution to S.
6/ CIA/RRCivil Consumption of Petroleum Products in the9S, amended by CIA/BRConsumption of Petroleum Products by Soviet7, and ORRfPetroleum in the Soviet3S.
RB*Petroleum in the Soviet3S, and Based on CIA Consolidation of, and ONI Contribution to ORR1
CIA/RRFlow of Petroleum in the Soviet Bloc European3.
2/ R Estimate
icy OKr, "Selected Data on Soviet Bloc1 s
iy Preliminary figure basedR filereliminary figure basedF. fileK Estimate
CIA/RR l-D, "Civil Consumption of Petroleum Products in the9S, amended by CIA/RRConsumption of Petroleum Products by Soviet7, and ORBtPetroleum in the Soviet3S.
0BRtPetroleum in the Soviet3S, and Based on CIA Consolidation of, and ONI Contributions to ORR
16/ R file data. 3 exports based on reports of deliveries of Soviet Bloc petroleum to the West. As ofoviet offerings and contracts for the sale of crude oil and petroleum products on themarket totalledillion metric tons.
22/ , "Estimates of the Minimum Annual Civilian Petroleum Consumption of the Soviet Bloc in the Eventeneral War in FiscalS,R file data.
Hi/ WSEC Staff StudySoviet Eloc Military Consumption and Replacement Requirementsar Commencing in0S.
W R Estimate
Original document.
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