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ink: AIR
Chief, WH"
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: Chief of Station, Guatemala/"
Lincoln
PBSUCCESS
Barometer Report (period
CD
1. The nature and frequency of reports and rumors collected during th< reporting period indicates that the feeling of expectancy previous} noted is definitely spreading, widespread hopelessness and apathy have by no moans been entirely dissipated, but there haaignificant change in recent weeks. It appears that the majority atill fool that external forces will be the deciding factor in any movement designed to remedy existing conditions. However, certain items cited below illustrate tho possibility that tho army and/or individual officers may be Inspired to overthrow the present govenand soizo control thereof boforo exiled groups aro sufficient! well organized to do so.
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source of unknown reliability who ls known to bo personally friendly with President ARBENZ statedons of arms were recently landed in El Salvador for the use of exiled Source claimed that the army is well aware of the build-up of exiled groups and is considering tho desirability oj deposing ARBENZ before the exiles can do so.
(Possibly true; may be re-used) On3 the subject ofdmitted to an Embassy officer that he was connected with (unldontlfied)carrying on subversive activities in Guatemala. He claimed to be in contact with CALLIGERIS who recently asked him to take charge of tiie anti-Communist student movementhre month period publicity campaign which would precede military action against the ARBENZ government. etailed memorandum of conversation between the source and an Embassy officer isunder separate cover.
(Information possibly true; may be ro-uaed If sour-is thoroughly protected) Opposition personalities who have previously boon relativelycontinue to appear at the Embassy to declare thomselves as oppositionists and asking how they can cooperate to remedy the situation or what/when thevernraent will tako action to check Communism in Guatemala,
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rumor Is circuloting to the effect that PresidentColonel Joae Angel SANCHEZ, Hlnlator of Defense, asto the preaidency. Col. Carloa Enrique DIAZ,tho Armed Porces, la reported to bo furious since hebe the next president. Source expressed the beliefmay be tempted toevolution in orderhis own succoaaion to the preaidency. It ishe has already made overtures to some (unidentified)
Source Esmeraldlte; possibly true; may be re-used)
reporta continue to state that ex-presidentARKVALO isumber of Latin Americanthe purpose of soliciting support for Guatemala and. proposal to investigate Communism in thetho impending moetlngof American States at
(Sourcend others; possibly truo; may be re-uaod)
confirmation of our previous reporta on the attltudos ofESSENCE haseport wnloh states thatstudents are overwhelmingly antl-government andin sentiment butre apatheticThe small but militant Communistthe students obtain most of their recruits fromfirst-year students. However, by tho second or thirdof these recruits lose their taste for politicaljoin the inactive majority. The anti-Communist factionlargely of third and fourth year students butla likewise hampered by the prevailing apathy. IGER expressed the belief that Itto overcome the problem or apathy and they doubtalone will dissipate it. However, renewedreorganization of the Comite de Eatudiantes(CEUA) probably will be effective inof the present disinterest.
source of questionable reliability who claims to havecontacts in the National Palace claims that Victorhas received word that tho So'viet Union is0 non-interest loan to relieveeconomic crlsle. Source also claims that GUTIERREZARBENZ to aug-est to Russia adequate measures tothe transaction from the "North Americana."
(humor; possibly true; mar be re-used)
same source referred to in b, above, declared thathigh command in Mexico haseries ofin il Salvador and Nicaragua beginninganuarya method of defending the Arbenz governmont (Comment:source meant that preoccupation with Internal affairs wou
prevont the mentioned ^overnmonta from particioating in antl-Guate mala activities).
(Junior; oosslbly true; may
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i. The same source mentioned In the two preceding paragraphs also claims that Jose Manuel FORTUNY took with him toequest from JIRBENZ for Soviet support of his administration, the support to include arms, instructions to all Communists In America to render moral and/or material support to thegovernment in it3 struggle against imperialists, and defense of Guatemala in the United Nations.
fRumor; possibly true; may be re-used)
j. When queried as to the degree to which revolutionary andrumors aro circulating among the lower and lower-middle classes,tated that the feelinghange is imminent is widespread, Howevor, ho asserted that people in those categories are being extremely cautious in their They reportedly fear retaliation and hesitate to become identified as subversive. As previously reported they will not discuss such matters except among close friends feeling that mere conversation or the repetition of rumors, if overheard by governments sufficient to invite government suppression.
(Possibly true; may be re-used)
k.lso reports that the army continues to havein mooting its financial obligations. Officers and troops receive their salaries on time but vendors who supplyitems have not been paid for two months at one of the principal army garrisons in Guatemala City.
(possibly true; may be re-used)
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3-wash
2-Linc
1-Files
George L. Tranger
Original document.
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