NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FOR SATURDAY, 2 MARCH 1991

Created: 3/2/1991

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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IRAQ-KUWAIT: Situation Report

Baghdad not only continue* to claim ticiory but also is spread! reports that Iraq was "stabbed In the bock" by other Arabs.

Saddam Considers The Iraqi government-run mudia are lauding Saddam and lhe forces toease-fire

qli arc now blaming theoanaonmg Hagndad. western journalists leaving Iraq recently report that popular grumbling against Saddam is uncharacteristically growing louder, and military defectors claim thai arm Saddam graffiti has appeared in some Cities. Diplomats and European press stones are repeating rumors that Saddam and his family plan to flee lo Algeria, Mauritania. India, or the USSR

Comment The "subbed in the back" thesis is likely to get wider play as Iraq tries to transfer blame for in defeat. Baghdad may also start to warn that "externalelements backed by Damascus. London, andin the country trying to erode confidence in Saddam and destroy Iraq. None of the reports (hat Saddam or his family plan to leave Iraq has been corroborated; he is more likely to challenge his attackers and is unlikely to flee unless he believes his regime is ncai collapse and his life is in danger. mm

UN Preparation*eacekeeping Role

UN is prepared to respond to Saudi Arabia's and Kuwait's requestmall UN observer force along the Iraqi border.

ihad

APPROVED FOR DATE1

Declares

release

Saudi Arabia and Kuwait may ask the UN-an UN observer force alongborder wiih Iraq.

JThcuiN prooawy concludedeacekeeping force no* can be smaller than originally envisioned because of the Iraqi Army's destruction and Baghdad's acceptance of the UN resolutions The UN will try to persuade Baghdad to permit stationing observers on both sides of the border

Several Hizballahan influential memberoly war against the US. Thethe cease-fire was announced, the group warned lhat USthe region is no longer justified, and one member claimed thatreal mother of battles" between Islam and the West hadsent terrorist icams to lhc Gulf la.it momhcoalition interests.!

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