Special Analysis
Way Out
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slill appears on Ihe way lo dissolution, eitherloodbath or, much less likely, through mutual agreements among the republics. Although the federal military's close brush with Croatian forces last month sobered some leaders on both sides, tension remains high and tempers hot, and none of the parties has shown any willingness to compromise. The Army apparently has been waiting only for orders from civilian authorities to put down the northern secessionist movements; although it probably cannot save the federation, It now faces humiliation, disrriejriberment, and absorption by Serbia's forces if itj B
A last-minuic compromise between federal and Croatian authorities narrowly averted armed conflict laic last month. Each side has since accused the other of failing lo live up lo the agreement, and the Army has threatened to arrest Croatian Defense Minister Spcgclj. Talks between federal officials and leaders of the republics lo salvage sonic semblance of national unity arc going nowhere; Slovenia announced last Friday that it wanted to initiate negotiations on secession!
Military Poised
The Army slill appears intent on taking action in
The major constraint on the Army appears to have been thai it wants the blessing of civilian leaders. Senior officers, faced with an ethnically fragmented and potentially unreliable force, may believe their chances of maintaining cohesion in any combat will improve if the military is nol viewed as its instigator. If Croatian and Slovenian leaden refuse to participate in future presidencyPresidentardline Serb, chairscould give the military enough political cover to inicrvcne.l
IS
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ji** ?i The near conflict last monlh appearsiavc sobered some federal .
and republic civilian leaders. Representatives of the middle-ground
Republics of Macedonia and Dosnia-Hcrecgovlna have insisted publicly that only peaceful means be used to resolve the crisis.
publicly thai only peaceful means be used to resolve thePrime Ministerroal. has aggressively pursued ^role of mediator in the past few weeks despite earlierhe woulcjsupporl use of force by the Army under Vciiain
the key players are as intransigent as ever. Public supportin rrnaiia for omrieht secession, as opposed to greater
autonomyH President MilosevicCrc7anas*govcTrmcTn^ and ol planningSerbs. He probably believes Slovenia's secession andagainst Croatia would strengthen Serbia's abilityterritorial claims against other republics"
The contenders probably can pull Yugoslavia back from Ihe brinkimited number of times! All rnajorparlics-archcavilY^rmcdrand tempers are hot. Armed conflict could occurwilh htllc warning if he Army carries through with arrests of senior Croatian officials or if there is serious ethnic violence, perhaps intentionally staged by procrackdown Serbrunch point will also come if the
follow Slovenia in seceding from the federation
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Original document.
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