IRAQ-KUWAIT: SITUATION REPORT #594 - SADDAM'S ONE-TWO PUNCH; WORLDWIDE REACTION

Created: 2/21/1991

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oae-Tvo Punch

The Soviet Union announced tonight that visiting Iraqi Foreign Minister Tariq Aziz had responded "positively* to the Gorbachev initiative. oviet spokesman laid out an eight-point approach for eettling the Gulf crisis: Iraq would first agreeull and unconditional withdrawal of its forces froa Kuwait, which would begin on the second dayease-fire and would take placeixed tine frame. All POHs would be released immediately after the cease-fire. The withdrawal would be aonltored by countries not directly involved In the conflict, as chosen by the UN Security Council.

The plan then stipulates that after two-thirds of Iraq's forces have left Kuwait, the UN-lnposed econoalc sanctions would end and, once all Iraqi forces have withdrawn fron Kuwait, the crisis-related UK resolutions would cease to be in effect. More details on the plan will be nade public later tooorrow to the nenbers of the UN Security Council.

Earlier today, Saddaererecorded speech that was defiant and uncoaproaising; although leaving rooaiplomatic solution, he virtually pleaded for the startround war. Nearly coincident with Saddaa's speech and Moscow's announcement of Iraqi withdrawal plans, Baghdad launched Scuds at Saudi targets. ^JKSoV

Comment: Baghdad's acceptance of the Soviet Initiative and Saddam's speech appear to be two aspectsingle effort to shift the political BomentuB in Iraq's favor. Saddaa alaost certainly will have calculated that soae of the terms of the Soviet proposal will not be acceptable to Washington and, if so, that the coalition will be drawnegotiating process Baghdad has long sought, orS rejection of the Soviet initiative will atrengthen Saddam's iaagoictla of US aggression. Saddaa probably la willing to run the riskround war in the hope that hie dlpioaatic aoves will gain hla internationalwith the Soviets and thea cease-fire aore to his liking.

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Worldwideo Soviet Initiative

Most countries have not yetormal coaaent on the plan. The Halted reaction so far haa been alxed:

o Among coalition countries, Britain and Frnnoe say the Soviet proposal does not aeet Its demands for complete coepllance with the UM resolutions and,audi UN spokesman said the plan had "too aany conditions.*

o Among key neutral countries, China welcomed the Soviet Initiative while Israel declared It unacceptable.

o Reaction aaong pro-Iraq countriaa has bean positive. Both xenea * he PLO hailed the proposal.

Iraqis Launch FROO lockets

Iraq used FROG rockets for the first time today, according to press reports. Two rockets were fired at coalition forces northeast of Kafr al Batin, one of which reportedly fell closenit of Senegalese troops, injuring eight and damaginga vohlcla. Tha second rocket fall aaerteJ area. S9

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