IRAQ-KUWAIT: SITUATION REPORT #572 - SADDAM'S CEASE-FIRE BID LESS THAN MEETS TH

Created: 2/15/1991

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Iraq's announced willingness toaass-fire and USChich calls for sn Iraqi withdrawal froa Kuwait, appears to be)an effort by Saddaa Uusayn to shift tha battlehooting war|to tha political and propaganda arenas. Tha stateaent issued thia aoming by Iraq's ruling Revolutionary Connand Council announces only Iraq's -readiness to deal with" UNnd links Iraqi cooperation to iasuas demanded by Saddaa sine* bis August Invasion. Thasauarantee of Iraq's "historical rights" in tha region, tha withdrawal of allied forces)froa tha Culfonth, complete Ieraeli withdrawal from all occupied territories, and an and to tba UN-lcposed tradalembarqo. Iraq added nav demands as wall, including cancellation of all other UN resolutions agalnat Iraq, tha removal of allltary equipaant supplied to Israel sine* the began, reparations for war damage, and tha cancellation of debts. In addition, Baghdad wanta ths removal of all forces and bases froa the Culf. kB^B

Inning of

coaaeat; Saddaa Husayn is notnilataral, unconditional[withdrawal from Kuwait. Ha la probably trying to postpone tha baginning of tha ground war and exploit Sovlat and Iranian willingness toaasaftra. By outlining his aaxiaua demands', ha probably bopaa to aat tha terse of tba diploaatic debate and axploit any propaganda advantage that ha believes be gained from tha civilian daatha in thaombing. Saddam almost oertalnly bopaa tha mova vlll garner international [aupport for what be bopaa will beha negotiatlon|procaaa, especially among tha Arabs.

onajinalda Iraq may alao be pushing Saddam toalt to tha allltary campaign. Iraqi leaders bavs admittedKalSaYam)ma9*fl tnat tl- bcaabing has oooe extensive damage to Iraq's allltary and aoorxaalc inf restructure. Groundwork Tor, this announcement amy bars been laid earlier this weak when Saddam and tha Iraqi praam clalaed that Iraq had alreadyoral victory Iraqi loaders amy be worried about tha high number of military casus itlee and increasing nombar- r

military desertion* from the front. Baghdad may also be aware of rumors of dissatisfaction among senior Republican Cuard commander*. Senior advleere say be ceutionlng him that hie belligerence risks unreet in Iraq. Saddam's next sovee may come during Foreign Minister Tariq Aziz's trip to Moscow Monday. Iranian)Foreign Minister Valayatl io eleo scheduled to visit

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