VIA AIR PGOCE
t PCOLW
FROM l
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olitical Sltaatloo, El Salvador, loU-
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Tba ftflloadjg tntlnato of the political situation in Elresponse tof reference request, ia hereby enbaittod. Aexpressed that tha appraisal Ls nada within the liadtetlons Imposedreference dispatch and henco restricted] to the previous krtr/idedgo It should bo alao adcW that the resulting opinions
orrelation of fact, opinion, and reported informationg whenarrived in El Salvador, to
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(Paragraphs aro designated by the sane letters as those of the guidance cpestionaire)
a. OSQEIO, as night be expected fron his Indian blood, operates and thinks In subjectivo to raft. Outside menaces aro all in tho ssasa category to hln, differing only ln the degree to
which they effect Salvador and hia own personal position. Ho ia antl-Interfererce and rationalistic ratheranatic anti-Cccrtanist and his resistance to CdnnunisBi is predicated on practical terms of precisely how he .can effectively reeiBt it without exposing Salvador and himself to avoidable Impasses.
When he assumed office ho was definitely to the loft ln bio thinking bat, when tho left wing sought to enhance ita position and power, ho swung to the far right to defeat it. When the ri#rt thereupon o'iight to exploit ita position he denied it andantor-cf-the^road position which he baa consistently adhered to since and from which he evidences no cHepooltion to depart*
He can banco bo aald to be dttCLnitely center aa of the current time and plays the left and right against each other in axaaartoo without cVjparttng from his own smears central position. It Is perhaps no coincidence that ho Is an expert chess player, nor irrelevant that bs is now anecrtrcnsly wealthy man by any standards.
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He Kill do precisely whet he thinks le beat for Salvador. If be favors anything, then It la tha Army to which bs owes hia rise to power end present situation and in which he finds oeonreafferent aapport* The Amy In bun hss toncflttod trumon-doosly froa bio leglsm snd ho pas attained thoir fall loyalty.
b. iirtarnal position la oocfa that it would be unjustified speculation to say he oould not do aa he pleases externally. However hia Inherent nature* as indicated by tho internalho has assumed* precludes his taking any action against Ouateaala. He teleo Interference and by tho oaao token mfrslna froa seta which can bo construed as interference.
eaction to CaUJOSOS raaalne an enigma. It la known ooaoCXLLIGZHIS supportersery wealthy boaineesnan with whom OSORIO is extremely lntlmata and, knowing the business nan had family holdings in Guatemala, asked for support and stated they bad the tacit consent of {Trail). _
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If be loans toward aay one of the aspirant GuAtcwalan leaders It wouldersonal preference rather than an official ooa* And this Incident would disprove any contention heersonal favorite. He Is known, on the other hand, to havo parsons! snd intimate contact with EH21TXC and to receive bio visits kindly. There is no apparent evidence be has ever seen CALLKIKErS.
d. Bo Salvadoran can Influence OSORIO and anyone stating be naa
such Influence nay be instantly placed in the categoryo responds only to facta which he will thon proceed to weight against the balance of the probable effect on Salvador and oo hia own position tho rain* Thoso people who soe hia regularly, and are tho first to deny any Influence on hin, arei
CooperativeJ
Eanknr and President of tho Cotton Coo pen
*QARCIA PRIETO
cs'-id. Minister ofnXO. Foreign Minister) bwbbhbbm
Thoso people nave never evidenced preferences for the various Guatemalan entities except to dislike ARBEHZ and his followers and to Make lt apparent thay have little if any toss for'Chapinos" (Guatemalans) In general whether at bono or in sxile.
a. Ccolonel) Ooosx^BOUHCS la not currentlyosition to exercise any offioial influence. Hia personal Influence suffered greatly when hia resignation as Minister ofwas dsBansdr thecal ne by OSORZO. The true mason for this demand datea back to Ouadalonpe Day in DecemberOUNDS offered transportation to and froa Salvador to the Bishop of Havana by ArmyRIO refused to honor the offer but BOLMTOS sent theeedlessly without even informing OS0RI0 of Its dispatch. This, of course, meant BOLAKOS mustersonal rebuff from OSORIO of suoh nature that hia resignation was necessary.
This situation waa in manyomedy of errors. The Amerioan Ambassador had expressed himself inanner, presumably,lt was conceived he vas coamiittfld to provide official USAF transportation for the Archbishop. This being denied by Washington, frantlo telephone calls were made to Foreign sinister Roberto CAITSSSA who wuld have no part of tha affair. 'Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs )Dt. Asnear^CHATEZ thereupon undertook to procure tha Salvadoran alrcraftfrom BOLAKOS who suffered loss of hisryesult.atter of fact,(Assistant Minister oft.CoI. Al beAMILLA, had previously refused to go to bis officeoken of" his objection to tho financial conduct of BOLAROS In Army contractingroup of high-ranking Amy Officers had called en masse on OSORIO and petitioned his relief from the post of Minister. Hones, there can bo logical speculation whether the cause for relief was not divorced from ths Irenediate occasion therefor and actually simplyong existing and oontinuing basis of ccreplalnt.
eriod of waiting OSORIO gaveinecure asn this position the duties of which BO LARDS has never really undertaken although bs does draw the salary. Is without any real authority and direatly under the Presidential eye. The fact BOLABOS and US UNA both grew up with OSORIO would explain tho kindness to hia although the influence of tha Churchast poUtloal debt toay have also influenced OSORIO. Currently It oan be stated BOLAHOS has no specific Influence. On ths contrary, the Army would appear to have rejected hia for reason of hisoonduat when Minister ofo ioember of the
powrful kasonlo group as ia OSORIO and other key figures. In answer tof tha refera dlapatoh it oan ba said probably tha boat nathod of obtaining an anewar to OSORIO's position ln regard CALLIGERIS would ba for an ODTOKB offlolal to ask hln tba direct question. Tna answer cannot bs reasonably predicted but lt is certain an answer would result. Kaanwhlle OSORIO is surfioiontly secure and basically enough of the Indian not to be susceptible to the press nor to be influenced by persons. Such attempts would probably only Incur hia wrath and anger. .It is readily apparent he doss notjrojgsa_ to ^ba Involved nor to lnvolva Salvador lh any interference in Quataoala. An example of thia la ln his in> true tl ins to Roberto CAheSSA who Is openly antagonlatio to the Quatsmalan regime and makes no secret of hiseomathlng should be dons about lt. CAHESSA haa atated he has, ln no uncertain terms which ho dare not defy, been ordered by OSORIO not to express his official opinion nor to become involved ln anywhich oould cosproclBS the Government. Thin may, in pert, explain CAKESSA's conduct at Caracas.
It_ls_remotely possiblejui ERRAnC/CAUIOg&IS entente might achieveof non^lntarfarapes with efforts baaedIfERRATIC ls known to enjoy the"personal friendship of OSORIOa concentrated effort by both gentlemen night appeal to hlna friendly government in Ouatemala thereafter. However,all truthfullnesa atatoe he would prefer to present fait accomplisnd rely on hia ratification rather than approachefusal. There la also aof thought whloh pointsOALUOXBIS ls accepted as aQ 3antlty*aofrecord thatalways vlad forHonduras. By the aaaa tokan it may be correctly poetalated the sametrue of Cuateaala. In that case it weald be logical to assumeconsider ERSATICA his man and refuse any assistance toERRATIC was assured of some power and Influence along withwould fit Into what ia known of OSORTO'" nharuotor endhs would certainly resent seeing f trolled man lnadjoining Quntoaala especlslly when elections will^ shortly bein Honduras as well. To ignore this sohool le to belle hisatno one does thatl Renos the conclusion lsthat regardless of whether ERRATIC oan contribute tangible aasetsto the CALLIGERIS movement, thereefinite lndloation anthem, duly nnde known to OSORIO, might wall pay profitableaction dividends.
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Original document.
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