U. I. Off IcKit Only
HISTORICAL REVIEW rTOGR^fcrawtt
COUNTRY SUBJECT
RELEASE IN FULL central intelligence agency NFORMATION REPORT
Guatemala City late Jan 5-
late Jan >4
Communist Strength, Methods ofof Land Refcra/PoBOibie sources of Opposition to Current Administration
DATE ACOUIRED (BY tOUHCl)
DATE (OF INFO.)
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this IS UMEVALUATED information
SOURCE US eititen and professor of social solenoearge US university.
Source is an authority cn Latin American affairs by virtue of having studied the politics and economics of the area for more than ten years end having lived in various Latin American countries for extended periods. Host recently, sourcehort trip to Ouatemala, vhere heeek ln Guatemala cityate He had an opportunity to confer with Guatemalan government officials of fairly high rank at that time. Boumber of contacts among political groups in that country. Evaluations of his past reports havo indicated his political insights to be well-founded and objective.
. What is the balanco of pro- and antl-Communlst political strongthT What individuals and groups would be likely to emerge in positions of leadershipew,rbenz administration government?
A. The ba Ion oLog or political forces is approximately two-thirds anti-government, and one-third pro the current regime. The whole balance of politioal forcea points to tho government being overthrown when the situation comesead. Toe opposition people axe beocalng more bitter against the government, and the government has not boon very effective in breaking tho strength of the opposition. The opposition consists primarily of landowners. This groupeginning to bo more desperate because of ths application of the now agrarian reform law, and therefore Is willing to take risks. The general attitude among opposition people whose property ls not in immediate danger'is that the government will fall pretty soon anyway, so tbe smart thing to do is to sit lt out, and when tho crisis comes to jump ln on the right side. risis may aome at the time of the congressional elections inr during the political campaigns immediate Ly preceding that date.
Augucto Cbarnaud KaoDonnld, Minister of the Interior, was the hinge of all ant1-Communist groups. Ho is an unpredictable man, apparently is easily brlbad. At one tlae"he was considered to be the leader of tbe anti-Communist forcea in the government, but this Lsno longer true. He is out for himself, is easily bought, and the rumor is that he bao beon bought by Communists or by the government.
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or theithin the USA of the Intelligence component* of the Department or Agencies indicated above.ot to be traiwalUed overseas without the concurrence of Uw originating office Uirough thn Assistant Director of the Office of Collection and Dissemination, CIA.
s officials ONLY
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can be bought in the future by either side. Although he la unreliable, he probably vould be one focal point for any action to overthrow tbe current regime and would then very possibly be. foundow regime.
Renovaolon Hacionai (FKR) Is. one of the four.parties in the present government coalition. It.is the cost conservative of the .four and could be foundew government.
Manuel Noriega, foralca, , currently President of the Banka governsent position, may emerge as one of theleaders. Borlega's family ties withinAare about as strong as anybody's In Guatemala, and bepowerful politically. hink that he would be willingport in any major antl-Comaunlot Party orat the right time, and if it did not involve unduehimself. Be Is genuinely concerned about the strengthIn Quateaala and would participateove tostrength, but he would not be willing to risk hisor economic safety. Bearvard PhD. He isthe US, or at least he re centers with affection hiaIn the US. He likes to hire US-trained personnel forthink he regards the US as wrong In its present relationsalso be la anti-United Fruit. He strikes me asunusually responsible sort of person, not easily bought,the usual corrupt politician. He thinks of. himself asleader and tends not to make statements orunless he cue make others feel that his views areof considered judgment. Ihis Is unusual amongIn power In Guatemala.,.
3. Bov successful have tbe .Communists been in gaining oontrol of the administration of the agrarian reform law? ghat, is the nature of Communist activity in rural areatt .What is .the reaction, ofaborers to Ccnxaunlst activity among them?
t. tbe agrarian reform lav setaierarchy of cassias ions::
(a) .the. national commission, on which .the .Communists arc'- InfVtMmtlal;n each department there is an agrariancommission; (c) in each munialplo thereocal agrarian .conmlaalon. The actual work of. the selection of lands to. be. divided and.the allocation of these landa, is done, byhe higher.crtaai3sions come In only.at euch-tlaea eshe .landowners appeal the. expropriation. The Supreme Court of Guatemala has .decided that It will.not -take the appeals, thus the ultimate appeal is to. the Rational Agrarian Commission, where the Communists nave their greatestithin the departmental and municiplo commissions, the strength of the Communists varies fron one area to another. The Tiqulsate area and the area HWf:Guatemala City both have Communist-dominated aomralHsions. There are other areas, too, which ore Coanunist.-domlnated. Hy and large, the commissions .are.an effeotlve inatruoont for the Communists The Communists have 'gone out and made speeches .to'.the people and helped them with the legalities Involved In land transfer. The Communists haYcboenoncerted effort to.arouse the people toof the agrarian reform law. Incidentally, tbe lav itself provideo many things long needed In.Guatemala; it isdministration, of' the law that it can be used to servo, communist purposes. The reaction, off rural laborers to Communistatter.of geographic variation, She local people In theareas where most of'the.exproprlable (that is, currently nutilized and therefore eligible for expropriation) land ia.
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tend-to-*be unresponsive, -unaware-'and, uninterested* in-the -lav endfor them. 3fce>8'& people-are mostly-Indians endnaseen unaffected by what the Spanish- The greatest response to the law and its administrationpeople living near the big cities, whereas the law shouldto land-in-those areas, but-only to-land-inisolatede/reeult of-findans Interest-only or primarily-'in-theareas,"'thereendency-to mdeuse andlav, administering lt In,ay tbat cultivated land isdM^iisi fcheae ai-easare -two-big-sourees-of friction regarding theand. these'-concern (a) the proper administration of; the lav,of the. law and. the. meaning of - W'n: 'ia
3- Q* Hov'.do.the Cceatuaists. operate within-the
A. as able.to>ood deal about'tMsquastion during'myvisit, end theiscovered-is: an Interesting 'and,gather, fairly-standard one:-for communists working In a'The eoalleot party. In the'four-party' coalition iolabor party (formerly-called"thehe -same membership). It wields an influence in-thefar-out-of-proportion to. the-number-oflte-loeaeera reasons fort-maintains tightas compared with the -other three -parties- yhica suffergood deal'of iatra-partyt has-several high-lynz' Icmz tvo c: whom are- Hoacow-tralned-tJose'P leader is-supposed-tosnutble back- and forth-ln-fact.it- isuatemalan-at'all;'Victor Hanuei Gutierrez, the Ko. 2also supposed to have travelled to theot -less-frb4ueat:'bliaa toose-ofa very-'dedicated groupy ah^-hot;-corrupt-the-hree.fE^Oemmuniotsembere are not alvaysdo. When it comes to*parcelling out the work on givencabinet-meetings,-'it-is* the-Cbzr.-jnii>t5 v'no.do-the- tedicue-*cbbills and'[behdeiioy-of Presidentwwk doha-byaunleBa.';tber"partiestut"they-ara -not;filing-to ;vo'ie'$be/:fce*ioof which-they-have-all previously agreed-to,theost of the dull) .routine-workill do' and-the others-won't. The-GcassuBists are-and,eculiar-onest.-
In addition .to the-he GoDmuniats in the aablnet-haverelationship withe' isilitaryhe shuns moat-of the 'political-requirements of hiseendConsequently, he-turnsfor help, and* they areHere 'a ;awrote; perhaps you -could- use it, Mrof. the fact that theyperformhim. on't thinkoamunist,any who believe that-his-wife-iSj-or-evb least-that she- isellow traveller. -
Fortuny, Gutie'rrea- and,over'level, Victo^|uewa^oraee- are. the three-most active'. GoKmara-ists inGuerra- Bcrgea le-edXtor- of the Ccomunietrlbuna Popular. for an Interview-with*him cn Coccuniet attitudesumber'*of- issues.
Be countered by asking ae for. the1 questions .in- vol ting/ pr coining
that he-would In', turn send oe .written answers, which -wouldhe official CP-position. roteuestions,ever received any. answers, -norhink,ill; Asa:Ouerro-'Borges seems friendly, congenial andwould guess-him to .be in his middle. We.
ifcere are several situations- In Guatemala. vhlch play directlyhe hands ofP* (a) the: traditlonnl. anti^US feeling; (b)IcxLtednd.he Guatemalan view of the US. Dcpertment of utetenited'Fruit. .Thinituation has: put the. US in. the unfortunate position of turning large numbers of Guatemalans .against 'the <US who .would notise or necessarily be anti-US. Thereeeling among the Guatemalan- intelligentsia- tbat the agrarian, reform 'law.ood piece of etuch-needed legislation! -thus when the State Department opposes the application of this agrarian law to Unitedtut the US>in the position of opposing that.social and economic reform vhlch -non-Cccmunisto think la good and necessary. In .
there are manyin.positions, of. importance who -have dangerous misconceptions about the US- One such is Rani,
' Ossgueda, Foreign Minister until.several weeks ago. He-is not communist, yet he compares the things'the Communists do with those the US'does, and he says .that if-it camehowdown he-ave difficulty in .choosing between the two- He talkednited, Fruit lawsuit ;ln Boston where the lawyer, for United Fruitember of Dulles' firm.From this be concluded tbatruit is. behind all U3 policy, 'and this bo claimed was no- better
than what the Communists-would'urther,"Oseguedaiscussion be had; with united;Fsclt representatives in Guatemala*..
He said that'during this'diacussion he pointed out that the new agrarian' reform lav was based in pert on Lincoln's HceieBtead Law
.and-on some of -Thomas'. Jefferson'sn-according tohe- United Fruit" people commented; "We V. -came here to talk money and inoVprlnoiplao.1' It appears: to me.
United Fruit has not adjusted well and haa .poors 'contrasted with' such. US ccopanles. as Sears, Roebuck;
Ooodyesr and .some of the. oil companies vfckfc, as a' result of.policies.and public relations, are welcomed- in, "
So-far, there .bo-ve been no important issues on which, the Communists haveosition, different from that of the other-three
..coalition,he-Communists may do so eventually, when they doon't think that they canituation which
would- be. opposed, .by the .other .three parties actingoncert. he Ccf.Tinista don't have theunder their control, although.politics of the army. The-police, under Charnaud KacPoaaldy maypoliticallyhe ccccunlsts do control sow.oommunlcatlQnB -and the top level of the agrarian commission,
. but-that -is: inadequate strength with which to winecisive
hey, are probably veil aware'of all this, and are
-therefore playing jit cagoy.
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