CIA HISTORierfiEVIEW PRiMfepfffT
firston (ha preparationlan for PBSUCCESS
CTB/mb
baafully recognWed that tha XJS would bo accused of being th* main sponsor
ofot all activities directs! against the Arbcas regime. Written statements to this effect were Included In the report onritten inS,aper written in4 end presented to the Secretary of Stat* and there have been numerous other oral reports to the same effect. Moreover it was aeaumed that le an operation of this scop* some evidence supporting the accusations would unavoidably be available. Nevertheless it wu concluded that there was ruffle lent
likelihood that no irrefutable evidenceegal nature would be discovered to
justify the undertaking particularly when the risks were weighed against the importance of tho project.
A careful review of all factors bearing on security which have occurred to date indicates that so far the estimates have been accurate and that security has been as well maintained in this project ae could reasonably be expected. Consequently It ia fair to assume that no irrefutable evidence tying th* project to the OS Government is in th* hands of the enemy. It would of course b* as Impossible in this caae as in ell others to guarantee this laat statement but it can be asserted that the risks of DS Involvement today era not such aa to warrant. In ourermination or modification of the project on security grounds, if lt la otherwise desirable.
On th* general question of US involvement it would seem that the following observations are appropriate:
umber of Individuals in both the rOcaragnan end Honduran
"TOP SEOIfLi
OovornfenlB arc undoubtedly personally convinced that th* US la sponsoring
tiUerw* to this effect, plausible denial by the US In response to any charges could still be sustained. This would be especially true If the Ouatemalan regime had been effectively overthrown and ita leaders scattered.
ie not the alight*at doubt that if the operationin Americans will ae* In it the hand of the OS, But Ittrue that they would ae* the hand of th* US In any uprisingnot sponsored by theartlcuUriy sincefe* US has road* itmany overt ways that it heartily disapproved of the Arbemt regime.It might be said that the only way to forestallelief ia forto make aura that there is no revolution.
that in thisecision is taken to terminatemodify the present project for security reasons or at least
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