information direct reply preparation of reply recommendation
KE-XRAKE'JM FCR :
Factotfs we considero-sultative
.meeting of the America" States on Gutemalo
e'-.feelonsultative meeting of thetates
anas shipments to Guatemala and the general sltuatio- i- that cou-try would
luetive at this time. eeting would serw largely as
a delaying action for Guatemala and would give her a- opportunity to air
her charges against the US at an inter-American forum with the possibility
of winning support fron such countries asrge-ti-a. While
eeting might embarrass the Arbenz Government, it certainly
not bring about its downfall. On the contrary, it might serveind of catalyst to unite the various elements behind the president for the sake of upholding the national prestige before tho other America- States. it is possible that Guatemala could produce "evidence" oftep that uouldjss* not only emibnrrasshwBjeae the US but wculd be damaging to US prestige and lnfluenos In latin America. evelopment would be an unfortunate prelude to the Rio ecc-omic Co-ference scheduled for thisonference that will be most difficult and embarrflssi-gfbe the US without any added impedimenta.
2. ave been reached on the basis of the following observations t
a) Foreign Minister, Toriello has indicated that Guatemala would certainly attend enow arfceetlrg and would stro-glyts position. He has indicated co-fidence regarding support from other cou-tries.
Buoyed by his success at the Caracas Bonfiere-ce, he now cc-sldoro hlnaelf
latin America'statesmanseems to be eagerlynother
opportunity toMf-aAlfc^^, ^atc^<^
b)inion i# latin Americarms shipme-ta from
Iron Curtain countries to Guatemala is sharply divided. On tho One hand
are the ultra conservatives who would be anti-Guatemala,ssue that
smacked of Communism. On tho other are such^countries as Moxico and Costa
Gu-ite-Ala^sy^.buy ai-ns whorever she wishes, and President Figuerea, whOyfcsa-refused to make any der/cgatory statementt Guatemalao-veraatio
Rica and such outstanding statesmen as PadiUe Jtervo, who has stated
asnrtj/ ro nr arna frt ** nrn. , ^. - kta -jn ilnA resteers**
with Ambassador Hill TTT MM mi se 'mil liln II. Rot to
be cverlooked is Argenti-a, who gave tacit support to Guatemala at Caracas by abstaining fron- the Anti-Co-au-ist Resolution, and troaarece-tly hasriendly gesture by decorating the Guatemalan Embassador, Manualo-sultative meeting Guatemalaeasure of support from such cou-tries as Mexico, Costaould derive/great/propaganda advontago from supporting stateme-ts by iraports-t
Latin American atatesmon. reside, by the sameouldc)o-sultativo moetlng Guatemala couldtself by/the fact that US has refused forears to sell arms to Guatemala, despite
s of the arms eta-dardiiatio- program/and the US-Guatemalauatemala could prove that all other countries of the Hemisphere have bee- able to purchase ares froa the US, thusp diacrial-atory actio- on the part of the US. furthermore, it could be proved that all efforts to purchase arms in Wester- Europe werehe US.
d) Guatemala could take the/ stand that the US is i- effect tiying
y i* anas but alli-terfero with the trade program of Lati- krwrlcb ftzrqpmagt by trying
to enforce east-vest trade reotrictic-s. It would -ot take euch persuasio-
to win support of Chile, Mexico, Arge-ti-a,llou-tries
in then that point. That wouldery delicate issue to have
aired prior to the Rio Economic Co-ferehce. Again lt would serve the
cause of Guatemala and bo iS hnraful tooreots.
etaliatory charge against tho USjGuatemala night produce embarrassing 'evidence" that US artaah- trei-ed saboteurs, armed withnd using US-type explosives had attempted to blowrai-carrying part of the erasrom Puerto Barrios to Guatemala City onay. The Guatemalan press Carried phbtographa of the nitroglycerine cartridges which failed to explode and were used tothe charge with the detonator. The Mi-ister of Interior has atated that this type ofAa not used by any bra-ch of the Guatemala-d "possibly
rot in any Central American'
In additio- to' thethe Guatemalan Government probably wouldo-sultatlve
conferenceelaying action, allowing for distribution of anna, roollg"-
oent of forces, as well ao protection agai-at any revolutionary attempt
agai-st tho gonr-ae-t.