Special Analysis
INTERNATIONAL: Narcotics Production Outlook Mixed
The amount of coca and opium available for conversion into cocaine and heroin Is likely to increase this year; opium, which is produced in several regions, wilt remahj^ifficj^ to control, but cocaine production may level off next yearl
The coca cultivated in Peru. Bolivia, and Colombia apparently is more than enough to meet world cocaine demand. The reduction in coca cultivation due to the US-funded eradication program in Bolivia and the abandonment of less productive fields throughout the Andean region is roughly offsetting new cultivation, but fields planted several years ago are now reaching peak prcductioji-foca production may increase by as much asercent this year.
Next year coca cultivation may remain near this year's level or possibly even decline slightly because of effective antinarcotics operations and continued, although slower, eradication in Bolivia.pf the first-ever decrease in total area under cultivation lastewly maturing coca fields will be available next year.
^ar.^wer
Opium production in the major source countries could increase this year because of expanded cultivation, increased yields, and excellent
mowing conditions io Burma, the world'jJargest producer!
"arly reports suw-
Tavorame weather in Burma Indicate (iiarthe country probably will surpass last year's prcductionand oossibW even its record productionetric tons
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iu_mproduction may also increase in Southwest Asiathe world's second-largest producer, opium cultivation is rebounding in the Helmand Valley,an imposed last year by the late Mullah Nasim apparently is breaking down. The cold spring and flooding, however, have prevented larger increases in cultivationbamstan and Pakistan and are likely to reduce opium yields.
Opium production inf* ^Laos. and Guatemala orobablv will decrease.
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Original document.
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