EAST EUROPEAN BRIEF

Created: 6/15/1991

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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TO: PRIORITY EUROPEAN BRIf'.

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PAS SUBJECTi EAST EUROPEAN BRIE' CONTENTS

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COMMENTi THE SECURITY SITUATION IN CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE. INCREASING THE PERSONNEL. BHBH

OAHUK ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL RISK TO COALITION AND UN

FORMING UN GUARD FORCE fOR NORTHERN IRAQ

AN INTERNATI CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE UN PLEDGES Of PERSONNEL AN AMOUNT REQUESTED BY THE AUSTRIA. DENMARK. FINLA GUAROS OF THE SOO NEEDE

CONTRIBUTEORWAY. SWEDEN, ANO THEEPRESENTATIVE SADRUOOOLICE OR PEACEKEE INCIDENTS, WITNESS THE CONFIDENCE IM THEIR SAF

CONFERENCE ON WEDNESDAY TO ELICIT

GUARO FORCE TO BE DEPlOYEO IN NORTHERNINANCIAL SUPPORT REMAIN WELL BELOW THE

GfficElTANOBSW^^MWi^QT?F

D. ANO SEVERAL OTHERS HAVE SAID THEY MAY ONFIRMED FINANCIAL FINLAND.

US--AMOUNT TO ABOUT ONE-THIRD Of THE EEDED TO FUND THE FORCE. UNGA KHAN EMPHASIZED THAT THE UNIT WILL NOT PING FORCE BUT RATHER WILL MONITOR SECURITY REFUGEES' RETURN. AND HELP BUILO REFUGEES' E REPATRIATION.

91 SOW

OT; UN 91

with

c SHOE IS GENERATING POLITICAL FRUSTRATION AND MAKING IT INCREASINGLY OOUBTFUl THAT WARSAW will TS IMF PROGRAM.

PRODUCTION IN APRIL WAS down ERCENT FROM MARTMS'"'ir outw WAS THE LOWESTS!ISTHt USSR-METALLURGY

T- sonI hCoi polish

iNERPRlSES REPORTEO LOSSES IN the first OVARTIR aun lOWERl REVENUES PUSHED the BUDGEThER ThE ONi* MIKHY spotC-ER-THn^PECTED monthiv Rate 01 iSrSSf.oi! fSqm PHcfB li$

STRONG EXPORT PERFORMANCE last TEAR. WARSAW'S PAYMENTS

POSITION HAS DETERIORATED SHARPLY. Th| COLLAPSE of EXPORTS TO THE

CONSUMER GOODS HAVE PUT THE TRADE

GOODS; AND HARD CURRENCY PAYMENTS FOR SOVIET ACCOUNT INTO SUBSTANTIAL DEFICIT.

OF FOOD AND OTHe!

St2KSt' GOVERNMENT DEVALUED THE CURRENCY BY lb PERCENT IN

E COMPETITIVE IN DOMESTIC AS WELLS FOREIGN MARKETS. AND PRES DENT WALESA LAST WFFK RFfmftLTin

TO SHAKE LOOSE KE'ONOM^C

LEGISLATION. TJLSDAY PREMIER

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bleak picture is drivng walesa's ricfnt pm inm

maneuvering and aggravatIng then THf PARlIamENTARY ELECTiON approaches grow as the fall

security forces thursday ih

ThTto make

of

SSR: ISLAMIC FERMENT IN CAUCASUS REGION ISLAMIC OEMONSTRATORS CLASHED WITH

MAKHACHKALA. CAPITAL OF THE AUTONOMOUS REPUBLIC OF DAGESTAN. IN

'ING SINCE EARLY THIS

ano THE

comment: THE clash urther escalation of Tnretween the traditionalist. proc enter daced us h" "an,

ASP

OCX. TOT: UN 91

ERCENT MUSLIM POPULATIONONG HISTORY 0* ACTIVISM THE LOCAL GOVERNMENT HIS ALREADY MADE MOOEST CONCESSIONS ANO PROBABLY WILL OFFER MORE TO AVOIO FURTHER UNREST. BUT IT DOES NOT HAVE THE RESOURCES TO PROVIDE HAJJ SUBSIDES AND HAS SOUGHT HELP (ROM THE REPUBLIC ANO NATIONAL GOVERNMENTS. NEWLY ELECTED RUSSIAN PRESIDENT YEL'TSlN HAS PROPOSED FUNDING FUTURE PILGRIMAGES FOR ALL FAiThS THROUGH JOINT-STOCK COMPANIES. THE PAGE STANi TURBANCE MAY fUEL MUSLIMCONTE NT ELSEWHERE , THE iiSS* BBJH

USSR: PRESIDENTIAL STAFF EXPANOS AT PARTY'S EXPENSE

GORBACHEV IS EXPANDING HIS STAFf WITH TRANSFERS (ROM TH COMMUNIST PARTY BUREAUCRACY. THE ENTIREERSON STAFF 0

DEPARTMENT Hf, BUN REASSIGNED TD THE DEFENSE COUNCIL,ALL ECONOMIC EXPERTS CENTRAL CO BURIAUCRAC* ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO THE SECURITY COUNC

SUCH PERSONNEL MOVES HAVE BEEN UNOER WAY (OR MORE EAR AND WILL SIGNIFICANTLY ERODE THE PARTY'S REMAINING POLICY

IN> LUENCEi THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE APPARATUS HAS ONLY ONE-FOURTH OF ITS ORIGINAL PERSONNEL STRENGTH. BECAUSE GORBACHEV HAS RELIED ON THE

CENTRAL COMMITTEE STAFF FOR ADMINISTRATIVE SUPPORT SINCE BECOMING PRESIOENT. HOWEVER. THE CHANGES ARE UNLIKELY TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON THE AOVICE HE RECEIVES. THE TRANSFER OF PERSONNEL TO THE OEFENSE COUNCIL WILL INCREASE CIVILIAN INFLUENCE IN THAT BODY. WHICH HISTORICALLY HAS BEEN COMPOSED OF GENERAL STAFF OFFICERS. THE ECONOMISTS' REASSIGNMENT TO THE SECURITY COUNCIL WILL BUTTRESS THE HOLE Of YEVGENIT PR IMAKQV. WHO HOLDS THE COUNCIL'S ECONOMIC

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5. USSR: BALTIC REPUBLICS PURSUING fOREIGR INVESTMENTJ

1H* BALTIC REPUBLICS HAVE JOINTLYROGRAM TO TRY TO

ATTRACT INCREASED OiRECT (ORE IGN INVESTMENT BY ESTABLISHING INVESTMENT BANKS IN THE REGIONINGLE BALTIC INVESTMENT BANK ABROAO. ACCORDING TO THE SOVIET PRESS. THE NORDIC INVESTMENT BANK HAS ACRE EO TO HELPE THE PROGRAM. THE NORDIC COUNCIL HAS ALLOCATEO S'SO MILLION FOR INVESTMENT IN EXPORT-ORIENTED SECTORS. BUT ALL-UNION BUSINESSES ARE NOT ENTiTLEO TO RECEIVE FUNDS.

COMMENT: THE RECENT USSR SUPREME SOVIET ORAFT LAW ON FOREIGN INVESTMENT ALLOWS THE REPUBLICS SOME FLEXIBILITY IN THEIR INVESTMENT STRATEGIES. BUT THE CENTER PROBABLY WILL CRITICIZE THE EXCLUSION OF ALL-UNION ENTERPRISES. THE NORDIC ROLE ANO THE ABILITY OF JOINT VENTURES TO REPATRIATE HARO CURRENCY PROFITS MAY ENCOURAGE SOME INVESTMENT, BUT SIGNIFICANT OBSTACLES REMAIN. INCLUDING AMBIGUOUS ROPERTY RIGHTS. HABITUAL SUPPLY OlSRUPTlONS. DIFFICULT REPATRIATION Of RUBLE PROFITS, ANO LIMITED CAPACITY Of BALTIC PORTS. THE NORDIC COUNTRIES PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE LIMITED ECONOMIC Ai0 (OR THE REPUBLICS DESPITE THE CENTER'S CRITICISM.

USSR: DROUGHT THREATENS SPRING GRAINS

THE LAST SENTENCE OF THE NOTE ON PAGE 7 in THE DAILY OF Iu1 SHOULD READ. "LACK Of NONGOVERNMENT CREDIT ANO HARO CURRENCY PROBABLY WILL PRECLUDE THE SOVIETS fROM PURCHASING SUBSTANTIALLY MORE THAN li MILLION TCNS."

in BRIEF

3CCRET

PAGEOT; JUN 91

EUROPE

NNtR K'LL"ETTER BOMB THURSDAY . . . FOLLOWS rlltrt REICHSTAG BUILDING TO PROTEST PROPOSED MOVE Of GERMAN

isuE:l"tv

USSR

TTACKED SEVERAL BORDERTHE THREE BALTIC REPUBLICS YESTEROAY . . . THREE POSTSBORDER GUARDSROBASLr WILL

LEADERS' DETERMINATION TO BETTER ARM ?CSTS. ' MLTIC

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ABDUCTED LAST

wtl* IN KASHMIR. INDIA. BY MUSLIM MILITANTS SEEKING PUBLICITY INSURGENTS STILL NOLO TWO SWEOISH ENGINEERS SEIZED LAST MARCH.

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ORIG: CPAS/IPS (SMITH. REl: CL BY; . END OF MESSAGE

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Original document.

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