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IRAQ-KUWAIT: SITUATION4
Political Developments
Iraqi creating Nav pacta in Kirkuk:
local
Iraqire
the city of Kirkuk, claiming that the city la "an Arab town."
Kurda fleeing Xirkuk told foreign journalists thia week that
Iraq'a aray ia moving truckloada of Arabs into the town,
destroying Kurdish homea, and forcing Kurda to leave. A
I tha trurkomans<ire^aiso^be?rig^pr even tad from returning to the city. The prewar population of Kirkuk waa probably composedlight majority of Sunni Arabs with roughly equal numbers of Turkomans, and Kurda,ntailer number of Christians. H
Comment: Saddam Huaayn has no intention of relinquishing Kirkuk and its oil resourcea to the Kurds. He may be stalling talks with Kurdish rebel leaders until his resettlement of this disputed city is complete. He probably is confident that the UN or multinational coalition will not take military action over this issue, that their forces will leave Iraq soon, and that heora hardline stance toettlement.
Iraq-Iran: Tensions Remain
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comnant: The planned Iraqi counterattack ia likely tosmall and to have the limited goal of recovering territory. Apprehenaion about each aide'a intentiona and tha impact of waaks of email claahes ln tha border region, however, Increaaa the risk of further eklx-aiahing between Iraq and Iran. Tha proximity of units and the occasional spilling of counterinsurgency operations over tha border in both directions probably will prompt Baghdad to keep its forces near the border at an increased state of readineee. Iran'a regular Army ia likely to keep ita units away from the border fighting while Revolutionary Guard unita probably will continue to provide limited covert support, for Iraqi dlaaident operations,
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