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Contents
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Soulh Africa: Reactions to Lifting of US Sanctions
L'SSR: Tough Vole Likely at Russian Congress
South Africa; Verifying Nuclear Compliance
In Brief
ArsalyM
rmy's Neat Nttfres. -
Securing the^
Ukraine for Looser Confederation
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V *
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EC Decidestails of Monitoring Force
EC foreign rrtiaistcts yesterdayroposal on the structure and functions of the observer force that will monitor the cease-fire and Ihe conditions for starting negotiationsew constitutional order in Yugoslavia. The force will be deployed as soon as the Yugoslav federal governmeni and thc rrTHibl.es of Slovenia anil Croatia agree to the ptoposaL
The monitoring force will have diplomatic status and consist ofoivilian andoserven irom au ix cv_ memr>erone ol ine monitors will carry firearms and even miliiary personnel will wear civilian clothes. They will operate under the Community flag and report to the EC. Belgrade and the republics, and ihe CSCE. Their mission will last forays amd can be extended by mutual agreement.
The force will operate in Slovenia and. pernapa, Croatia but not in Serbia unless Belgrade invites them.
I 'Tbe force will investigate alleged ceasend certify thai Slovenia and Croatia are taking no further steps toward lodependence Monitors will also verify the return of troops to ibeir barracks and the release of prisoners.
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Report
The fedtivl Army cwtiKUti
lotnta's legislature has approved the EObrokercd Brioni peace '
Armyrose again yesterday in Serb areas of
Increasing^Croatian vui^-ajjjanaaBjajIWVMaaE b
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taTaVJJ*Croatian officials-claim the republicect aTc-deral attack n five days. Thc federal Armyo mohilii* unit*tent:ficd trair.:nn I'
'>Thcobilizationajoi Dperai
tx irrinesdesemoos and strain begin to take their toll, the Army leadership may perceive iu oniy-chance for rruhiarv success is in ac uvii jaBatfaTaaw
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Calls for EC Guarantees
legislature,yesterday acquiesced in theBnoni accordargin but also voted toSioventa against future federal military action:state from the other
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Thc federal Presidency again delayed discussion of the'accord, until tomorrow, when it also has calledeeting with the republic presidents Macedonia's representative on tht Presidency, -who
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visaed Slovenia on,hc h
federation and Slovenia are violating the cease-fire and called forC to pul pressure on boih
on Albanian Border
Yugoslav and Albanian border guards exchanged fire Tuesday niabt after Albanians on boih sulci of the frontier allegedly tried lo kjyock down bolder mark era Lasl week Albanian President Alia placed lhe Army on alcn andbe border in response io reports ofnAlbanians in Kosovo:
t d" 'Albania" is satmna.r* w claims lhe iraop mnforceoiem it toproiecierbian autgek ori Albania or an influxhe action increases'tbe odds thai Albania could become embroiled in Kosovo if violence occurs Ihere. bui the Albanian mtlttary would noi be muchhreat to Yugoslav
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'GO 3*
Reactions to Lifting of US Sanction.
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"South African business leaders not only foresee immediate
benefitsesumption of trade but also emphasise thatconfidence will help revive thc economy, now mired(3)
ANC leaders said that, in light of continuing violence and disputes over political prisoners, sanctions were scrapped prematurely but added that the move would not adversely affect ANC relations with Washington. At their recant conference, ANC delegatesonsensus on
T
dc Klerk's popularity will be boosted among
ANC leadersthan on. the specific lo slow the lifting oi to dissuade other co US influence with shon te
.Ales who are particularly anxious for reduced international isolation and even modest economic benefits. Because significant uncertainly over future poliiical liability and economic policies almost certainly will discourage sizable ir.flowa of new foreign capital, thc removal of US sancntjns probably will haveimited impact on the South African economy over the near term Regaining IMF borrowing privileges, still impeded by remaining Unsanctions legislation, will be oneria's primary goals ^aaManT 5
(da higher priority or! prior US consul tat ion rig of the move. Although ihey will still work
ning Western sanctions, they arc unlikelyrom resuming trade with South Africa.fall over the
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USSR: Toughikely at Russian Congrats
During lhe inauguraiion yesterday of Boris Yel'tsin. he and Gorbachev both spoke briefly, emphnairing cooperation beiwcen thc center and the republics. Yel'tsin declared hii support for "radical" reforms, and Gorbachev congratulated Yel'isin on his election. Thc Russian Congress today begins votingew Supreme Soviet
Kbasbulatov, legislation committee chairman Sergey Shakhray, foreign affairs committee chairman Vladimir Lukin, Rosstya bloc chairman Sergey Baburin, Russian Communist Partypernber Viktor Stepanov, and sociologist Nikolay Arxhannikov.
. "aksataaHaVl rie Oorbachcv-Yernin exchange* on their joint recognition that they need to cooperate to maintain internalat least for now Selecting Yel'tsin's successor, however, will involve intense politicking and probably will not occur in the first round. Neither Democratic Russia nor the Communists of Russia have enough votes to put their respective candidates, Kbasbulatov and Stepanov, over the top, and reformers will be divided among Khasbulatov, Shakhray.iotci ism many rjoicJis oo not support Ycl'tsin's preferred candidate, Kbasbulatov, and could split their votes between Shakhray and Lukin. If one of the three makes itecond round against either Stepanov or Baburin, the radicals will close ranks to prevent the Communist Party candidate from winning. nMMLHM
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'"'cik" Support
uring his visitp*n
to Fmficy? last coiirTl
thatnr-.t r
In Brief
plants producing one-ttemav- pledged funds,
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- implosion Monday injured one at Estonian governmentousing price department, bordererpetrators probably
casing rjceasure on border guards.
aa iis-aajaju mr.
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I ithuanian governmentdiaa-ra, over expected publie eaction to recenily announced priceay lead to coalition with more moderate proindependenceould produce' more gradual approach^
Gorbachev. Prime rvijSister Gonzalez signed firs! Soviet-Spanish treaty .tollowed similar Soviet agreements svithrmany, Italy, unlikely to have muchoscow touting importance for new European architecture MHgV-
Panama offering World Bank compromise on reducing public
work force, privatization procedures . more concessions
probably necessary for new Bank. IMFven then
legislativeay delay disbursals until ycarend rflaWaV
Canada to coniinue economic sanctions against Soinh Africa, seeking more progress toward endingikely to lift sanctions after Ociobcr Commonwealth conference if Pretoria broadens reform ^gQg} Jj
nnup
Spe-cial Analysis Army's Next Moves
The Armypoor showing ia Slovenia probably has Temporarily discredited those in tbe high command who planned the move They apparently anticipated little resistance and dispatched company-iiie units, without adequate support, that were easily cut offand surrounded.eekerceni of Ihe Army's forces inor were
Rift In Amy
t tne moaesalea tn-inc military leadership was evide.ii last weekend, when Defense Ministerabsent Irom public view during much of theto calleaceful transformation. Other key moderates include Deputy Defense Minister Brevet and General Raseta. the deputy commander of ihc ith Military District, which includes Slovenia and most)
Army Chief of SiafTihe leading advocate of crushingresistance and Croatianlo becease-fire lo -
new hardliner.
certainly chose the Jth Military
mander. General Avramovic. whorominent
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Move
The Army probably will accept Slovenia's secession, but may stillunitive attack if the republic violates the cease-fire. Even the hardliners rccognue there is littler public suppon for military iniervention, and the republics want io withdraw their conscripts irom Slovenia Desertions, casualties, serious logistic problems, and low morale have sapped lhe ground force's combat capability. Moving hundreds of tanks, srrmordd vehicles, and support units
il. mi
Tor sjbii
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Armed Forces io Yugoslavia
Miliiary omnia in Yugoslavia would pit live Yugoslav People'scotv-ntional'"rmored force ofenull range of combat arms and supportmore lightly armed infantry forces under republic control. Slovenia's defense recta onman reserve Territorial Defense Force, while Croatiawrong paramilitary force Croatia and Slovenia also could draw on substantial ad^uooal reserves. Repubbc forces are trained uj guerrilla warfare, and their reccet extensive gray arms market purcnascs nave inauoeo automatic weapons, ngnt aniiaircrait and anuarmor weapons,ariety of munition.
Although tho Army is more mobile, better equipped and better trained than the republic forces, the conflict ia eroding ils advantages. The Army waa stretched thin by months of low-level violence even before tho recent fighting,ajor ground campaign against Slovenia would be difficult. It almost certainly could not prevail simultaneously against Slovene and Croatian forces, which would have the advantages of terrain and being on the defensive. Moreover, the recent violence has exacerbated longstanding ethnic strains within both enlisted and officer ranks, the military is beginning to break into factions, as mostly Serb reinforcements are introduced and non-Serb troops desert or refuse to report for duty.
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PaiC'"u
lo secede before
Srrb populations ihcre-
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UJUZiC
Analysis
Ihc Soulh
-mm
. icpressurerogress in' lhe
-continue to iaii
paaajsVaBBBaasaav'overnment faces increasing dometti achieve an Israeli withdrawal, fearing ihat.in area, its success in Sidon may be undermined. As long as Israel remains in thc security zone, (he Palestinians and Hizballah will
attacks that undercut Beirut's efforts to reassert its eh attacks have Increased since the LAF deployments.
.
Defense Minister Arens on Tuesday reiterated Israel's support for the ASL. and Tel Aviv almost certainly will oppose the ASL's disarmament or further Lebanese Army deployment in ihe enclave. Thc Israelis might, however, accept an ASli-Army arrangement that lets the Lebanese Government cUnai-sovettuniv over thc Jaziin area without deploying more troops ihet 4attaaaVaaVanaaYasVhaT*
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USSR: Kravchuk and Constitutional Reform
drafts ofthe constitution arecorrently under eomidcration Inra inian legislature. Thc first, supported by Kravchuk, was wnttenommission dominated by nationalists andould adopt Ihe name Republic of Ukraine: provide for legislative esccotive, and judicial branches of government, and caD fora muMipany political system. Dismayed bynature of the commission's draft, the legislature's hardline old guard has presented its own version, which specifies Ihat the republic is socialist, is part of the Soviet Union, and retains the name Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic.
* ummsusviiWiua iciciciiuuiu iu acuiemuei oil
whether the republic shouldocialist path, on what name the republic should use and on what symbols the republic should use (Communist orne major issue that apparently has been resolved is direct electionepublic presidcDt.
Although Kravchuk does not want to senosjsJy antagonize President Gorbachev, he appears increasingly comfortable assuming the mantle of Ukrainian patriot.ecent rally for example, he rose to his feet when the crowd spontaneously brokeendition ofthe Ukrainian national anthem, whicjf Soviet officials still regard as taboo. Kravchuk also has recently become more critical of Gorbachev;. raged Ooi baturing Turkish Presidento the republic last March. Gorbachev tjTaaaaaaaaeti has phoned Kravchuk on several occasions lo express concern over Ukraine's delay on the union treaty.
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Special Analysis
Ukraine for Looser Confederation
postponementkrainian decisiona lorn treaty will allow
influence. Leonid Krarck.uk, chairman of lhe legislature, probablytoonfederation, but only one in whichis Ota
Kravchuk hai been maneuvering carefully between the center and nationalists in Ukraine, but lhe current surge of anticenter sentiment in the republic and his own presidential ambitions have increased his willingness to challenge tbe Gorbachev governmeni. Prompted by widespread protests, thc republic legislature recently decided not to -consider thc treaty until September,ommission recommends changes to reconcile inconsistencies between It and the far-reaching Ukrainian sovereignty declaration of lan July. The decision gives Kravchuk considerable backing to resist pressure to sign any treaty this summer and has temporarily defused political tension in thc
Fall will be the earliest Ukraine could consider Ihe unionresidential election is scheduledecember, and Kravchuk may postponer slum of any union treaty until after tbe election. Although voters in thc Ukrainian referendum in March supported membershipnion, thnv
Conscfluence* of Delay
current heated legislative debatee new republic constitution probably will further complicate treaty negotiations. The Ukrainian legislature has alreadyesolution lhat thc constitution must conform to the sovereignty declaration that calls for republic rights. Including an armyurrency, that Gorbachev is not likely to concede. Separatists are using the debate to press sovereignty advocates like Kravchuk to push even harder for Ukrainian rights in negotiations with, the center. With ihc delay of the union treaty discussion, the nationalists are likely to become more assertive on sovereignty in thc constitutional debate as Ukrainian sentiment moves increasingly toward independenajanggJMB*-
continued
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Allhough publicly Kravchuk continues tonionstates and some formnion treaty, the nature ofhe would be willing to sign may be changing as politics inHis strong stance on single-tier taxation andover republic economic assets and hisas supportooser union or even independenceprobably will become less and less cooperative with theof its vital importance to any union. Gorbachev mayto grant the republic some special consideration,lime to settle its constitutional debate and possibly athat concedes rights consistent with the newIf Kravchuk and Yd'tsin. presidents of thcof the union, cannot get an acceptable agreement with theprobably will form an alliance, possibly including somethat wouldejacto loose union and greatlycenter'srm
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Original document.
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