Warning Page
F
V3
Conicnc
S :Report*v.alt: Situation Report
Army
: Military Concernlicies
rirdan: Peace Procci* Maneuvering
Moving Toward Tramiiional Government
-.
Withdrawal Schedule Reaffirmed
Legislature *"
Assuming EC Prevdency
my weaken* Regime
Brief
Preparing T<
- J
H
Sttuallon Report
cease-fire appear! ro hart tefl Slater Ihr fighting hai pushed European polii consider recognising Slovenian indtpe.
still eon lei itni in mnrr irrioi
ot llcnimi.es
federal Army agreed ycsierda; acceptance by Slovenian and milii by Prime Minister Markovic. SIov federal Army units continued fight had not received orders to discngi
rot best
to itscase-fircli claimed some mmandcrs said .*
pokes men claimed
I Slovenes saidfthe international
sfftcials claim they,
with thed at theai& for three months tangc. the ministersroat us federal
ublie
hAij^ljsccutiJ^o! over the Army backing* for his pYopusals. If thc Slovenian resistance with-force
nNlarkovic^ almost cert amiwill gain some. IcvcragcafromArmy's failure todiscourage further attempts, thc cease-fire may lead tover Slovenia's secession. Slovenia almost cena.nl, refused to back independence moves already taken, while Serbia probably- other demands to be mct-before it accepts thc
presidential candidate. In Croatia, the threat of serious violence will grow sharply if thc republic carries through with efforts to remove Army units from contested at >
Yesterday tltc EC summit invoked thc CSCE emergency mechanism
continued
Caught by UN Inspectors
confrontational 'hit to Iraq's Al Fallujah complex hatN Impaction team further evidence that Baghdadarge-scale electromagnetic isotope separation (EMIS) uranium enrkhmanlj
. program.
In che surprise visit, ihc team was able to photogclandcsti
yeitcfoay ordered his government
to cooperaiWBTIywith the UN and gave the Foreignto order other agencies to cqrnply wiih Ihe "
The Iraqis are likely to become more careful and may move nuclear-related equipment into buildings or bury it; they may also use less confrontational tactics to stall or deny inspections. Baghdad apparently is not yet convinced that its obstruction ofthe inspections will be penalised; it is allowing inspectionofproscribedntateri^ and uoprepared facilities only under duress
Situation Report
Ukraine Holds Out on Union Treaty
Beidrussle Asserts Claim on Center'
Ukrainian legislature delayed approval ofthe union treaty at least until this fall white signs ofnet problemsmerged in Belorutsia. Gorbachev is rryiag.ro distance himself from the
^jh^sniattt"
-il..-
Conimiinisi and opposition deputies in the Ukrainian parliamentefused to endorse the treaty. Parliament Chairman Kravchukdeputies sec it as inconsistent withnian demands for
sovereignty, while thousands ofdcniansirators insisted Iharthe-
giving
.'parliament reject the treatykrainian constitution is draTtcd >'
r^^rp'.ikai'
I ratified. Pailiarnentote at Icasl unlil September. -
ing Kravchuk time for further talks with Gorbachev. '-
.*
ddition to pressing Gorbachev for greater republic
powers. Kravchuk must reconcile differences between thc .Communists and thc opposition in order to come upersion acceptable io mosi legislators.
tr -
il" a
Belorussianoptcckaon placing all unionrcpubltcjurisdiction. ,
Spokesman on orbachev's Bole
in Raids : ,
k.Belofussia.'which has'given qualified approval'to Ihc ins 'Russia and the Ukraine in asserting its right to control all economic resources in its"terriiory. The movc*iuggcsts it intends to '. interpret thc treaty to support its claims
y '
...
Referring to Wcdnesday'*.iratd by Interior Ministry' forces inresidential spokesman said unnamed peopleeemingly trying to spoil Gorbachev's meeting vWth Western leaders in London next month. The spokesman said Gorbachev-has ordered Internal Affairs Minister Pugc tc investigate. aanankaW
kasaaaaVftaV : is thc first limca figure close to the Presidentmplied hardliners were behind thc attacks in the Baltic republics. Thc President has distanced himself from the raids, which probably arc overseen by Pugo. but apparently still findsseful means of pressure. Thc spokesman's comments probably reflect Gorbachev's concern that thc raids might damage his policies on the union treaty, economic reform, and obtaining Western aid. He may also be worried that hardliners arc deliberately trying to embarrass and challenge him. Unless Gorbachev halts the raids, however, republic leaders will
increasingly question his commitment to thc union
negotiations and his control over the by
1
Concern About Government,
Military leaders fear that aYel'tsin alliance, the newi-"( treaty, and radical economic reforms till lead to further defense
' ond reduce their influence over policy, but ihey are deeply diiided
homo respond and apparently noi
he military* leadershipnionbut-insists
consonant with maintenancetrong, modernized, and centrally, controlled miliary force: they* have opposed any'devolution ol* powerhc republics thm would undermine Ihc center's authority over defense issues. Ai thc recent Supreme Soviet session. Defense V*inister Yaiov apparently supported Pavlov's bid for expandeddescribed the army's plight in stark terms, and demanded
an end to aniiarmy actions tsy republics, according to Soviet press
reports, Yaiov disassociated himself and the army from Soyuzand deniee* that thc military was about tocoup. Military bitterness has surfaced in several recent articleslop armed forces leaders have complained aboul theatmosphere; in ihe mosi vehement attack.Chcrnavin called lhc government's policies : able
fn. ..
i strong tescrv^ilonsthe country is heading andtl increasingly ipeakalso romainjoyal,Yarov; for example, his staunchly supported
Gorbachev in trie past and insists he will cotrtinuc to doindicated by thc strong pro-Yel'tstn militarymiliiary;remains tod, divided io beatYel'tsin also is likely so. win more supporters in OfrvtisjUarythem he will protect their interesis. Gorbachev sent ato thc miliiary at thcune Defense Council meeting. ArinrtKi
forces reactionaries, however, willeejntinuc to side
UJ hardliners to try lo stall
-
fear more cuts in defense spending, dismemberment of thc military-industrial complex, andilitarybe further provoked by those sections of the draft union treaty that circumscribe the military's internal role and grant thereater voice on defense and economic issues. Chcrnavin's accusations suggest he has concluded that (he Navy is being forcederilous direction by current government policies. Also, lhe Soviet Navy has been increasingly a: odds wiih the ground-forccs-dominatcd General S'.afT. and the Navy chiefs broadside probably indicates not only his anger with Gorbachev bulivisions within ihc Defense Ministry over budgetary decisions.
53
I*
v
Peace Process Maneuvering
recent announcement by Abdul Rahim, the PLO representative In Amman, that his organization Is milling tooint Palestinian-Jordanian delegation ro any peace talks appears toignal thaiLO is flexible but also it determined to be Inrohed in ihc peace process.
probably itecisionoint delegation until Husayni and Ashrawi return from Washington. He is under increasing pressure to abandon the peace process from hardliners who reject the US peace initiative and arc skeptical of his tactics, bui he also is tryingatisfy 'moderates. fj^aaV
Abdul Rahim's announcement probably reflected thc PLO's concern that Jordan's recent appointmentalestinian prime minister may indicate Amman is preparing to move ahead in thc peace process without thc PLO. It probably will continue to insist that it select the Palestinian representatives in any joint delegation and that it be thc final authority for the Palestinians inegotiations. tmaWf
V
11Toward TraiDitional Governmcni
The all-parties conftret.ee that begins Monday in Addis Ababa tillajor ten of,Acting President Meles's commitment to dtmoxracy.
Mctcs ha* toldihc conferc ice will diieutidraflcitizens* basic rights and the powers of athat will nameew cabinetommitteea constitution for approval by an elected constituentthe next two years. To allow local auionomy in tome areas. for regional councils may..be held withm the ftrsi few iter the
Mcles has invited representatives of various ethnic, regional,oliticalsome exile group*and lias pledged Lj}'
to end clomtnauoningle ethnicxcludedcal anti-Tigray eailei, Mcngistua Workers' Pany or Ethiopia, and the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Pany. which is still battling Addis Ababa in western Oojam Province. Thc separatist Eritrcan People's Liberation Front, thc only Eritrcan group attending, does not plan to join the provisional government. Inlcrnalional observers from such organiranons as the five permanent UN Security Councilhe EC. and the OAU have been invitcdayjgaflLaaW
1 Meles's relatively broad, wcil-organued from is likelyiaaie both the conference and the provisional government, and his proposals for decentralized authority- probably will attract wide support from the delegates. EPLF attendance will help forge Eritrcan trade and communications ties to Addis Ababa and soften criticism of Mc'cs' suppon for Eriirean self-determination. Addis Ababa undoubtedly hopes to impress international observers ihat Ethiopia deserves increased foreign aid
h3
Thc conferenceully defined agenda, however, and theompeting interests will make quick agreement difficult. Exclusion of most Mengistu regime members and the LPKP and in ollics-is likelyreate enemies for thc provisional government.
Status of Soviet Withdrawals From Germany
Soviet withdrawals, from Germany apparently.are ahead of schedule in all categories except personnel. By the end of May, the Soviets told thc Germans they had withdrawn almostcrdenl of thc materiel and equipment,scheduled to leave Germany this year. In contrast, they had0 of the/OO.OOO soldiers slated to leave this year. Hy mid-June, the last of five ground divisions scheduled to leave this year began doing so. Inlements of at leasi oneivision and some other units have started
one to two years ahead of schedule. The Soviets probablyl-are.
removing as many of their remaining nuclear weapons as possiblenext month, when-ihey must give :Bohn more derails onmovemcnis. Meanwhile.holds-onc hpuSing contract has started workingroject
fffm
XYithdrtfial Schedule RcaffirVne
The Soviet Covcmmcnt hai distanced itselfarning Wednesday by General Burlakov ihc commander of Soviet forces in eastern Germany, thai delay* in German housing construction may- slow the troop withdrawal, but Moscow will continue to press Bonnccelerate and expand the program. The German Economics Minisici 'said yesterday ihc two sides remain committed toithdraws deadline. Thc Soviet foreignndicatcd Thursday that Moscow believed thc troops arc likely tobe'withdrawn on time and tin housing the Germans promised would be ready.losed Supreme Soviet session last week. Defense Minister Yazovjtintcdlowdown during testimony on thc problems posed by returning tr
efforts to play down Burlakov's stoiement reflect Gorbachev* concern about Soviet-German cooperation on thelong-term bilaicrabfclaiiohs, and. mosthis meeting with. Kohl next week on strategy forummit. Nonetheless, Gorbachev will press thc Germans for more help, particularly with housing construction. Hc probably will cite thc military's warnings and complaints, although he will assure Kohl the wiihdiawol will siay on track. Bonn almost certainly viewed the threatrude gambit to extract more aid, which it probably will .'. resist. The Kohl government will continue to argue foe a. greater multilateral Western aid effortrop up Gorbachev but ii likcly'to worry aboul his abilii^io control the military andimely -
voteontrovct
override Presideril'W.alcsa'i w. which hc had opposed-and could resultislature's actad raised thc eficd him but has conceded lo so. Meanwhile, the production last month was
POLANlV. Legislatureeaterday ti
The Polis
second vc
out of concern that it favors small par fragmented, paralyzed parliament. Th obliges him to sign thc bill into law.ossibility of dissolving parliament if that hc lacks the constitutional power recession continues to deepen Industr downercent, the sharpest decline this year, ihe budgetar in excess ofjehnci; and unemploymentercent Ian month.'
almost certainly will try to use this setback to his advantage. Hc probably will attempt to weaken his opponents, particularly the post-Communists, by charging them with undermining the authoriiyemocratically elected president. Hc may hope his tactics translate into suppon for the president and deflec attention from lhe worsening economic situation.
NKTIfERLANDS: Assuming EC Presidency
' . .
Thc Noiherlands will assumeC presidency Monday andVan den Brock will visit Washington on Tuesday as ECpresident io discuss lhc status of lhc EC intcrgoverr.mcni.il on monetary and political union^ugoslaviarproposal cn anus control.
The Duich will try to strengthen Communityand to avert French efforts to revive the debate on andefense identily. Before doing so.ey will havea compromise on remaining obstaclesrcaiy onThc Hague will pursue initiativesuropean EnergyCharterommon European arms capon policy and will seek(or EC efforts lo use lhcconomic cloutprocedures to preveni further fighting in Yugoslavia. Ilio establish Community controls over sales ofand biological weapons to tbc Middle East andareas. The Duich are inicnt on strengtheningon foreign affairs and will keep WashingtonCommunity initiatives. Dutch good will, however, isbe sufficient LO_jijgclucc breakthroughs on longstanding US-EC diipuics. QIIUHBIBMbV
7'
TOGO: Army Muiinj.Weakens Regime
PrcsidcjU Eyadcrha agreed to restore an increase in miliiary housing allowances aflcr soldiers took to the sir ecus) cstcrrfay,barricading roads and lhc national fadio-atation in Lorriet'anii uring.inJo the air, accordingairly reliable stTurce. Thc [ivopitttfM^tMtMkur'j'iietlarracks aflcr Eyadcma's aiatcmeni. but the muttriysfiowsragility of his regime. The mutiny followed strikes by police and "fircfighicrs earlier in the week. Thc government and opposition groups on Wednesday agiccd.toong-awaited national conference on political reform until disagreements over reprcscntatjon^ncdia coverage, and immunity for participants are >ivcd " p3
mutiny will further undermine the regime,by six months of sporadic civil unrest over demandsreform.embers of the security forcesdiscontentedime when Eyadcma needslo retain power, and budgetary constraints* will limitto satisfy iheir demands. Opposition groups may exploitto increase pressure on Eyadcma, increasing the risk
I -
op* for New Constitution Dim
Optimismreakthroughew powcr-sharing'.fading amid growinga national breakup. Federal.
' Czech, and Slovak leaders last week agreed lh< two republicsa treaty committing themselvesoint dcdcral staleshould ratify the final draftederal constitution. Both Cicchleaders,j*BMhaving difficulty'selling iheir
* / compromise to'iheir constituents. President-Havel recently
acknowledged hc fcars-lbe country will sgjit apart if citherlegislature rejects the draft federal constifutWlf Mlatoa.VQ.be o them by the federal Icgiilttturc.
jlncreasingly sharp' differences about federal powers. -
reinforced by rising nationalism, economic uncertainty-and political volatility, make an agreementew constitution increasingly unlikely before the legislative election next summer. The Czechstrong federal authorityubstantial role in economic matters, but thc autonomy-minded Slovaks seek to limit lhe federal role to national defense, foreign policy, and thc currency. Slovak Premier Camogursky continues to insisteparate Slovak seat in thcosition Czech leaders have rejectedormulareakupear-old Czechoslovak state
P?
In
V7
Cuba takes over monthly routing UN Security Council presidency
ly lo obstruct US initiatives, manipulate debate on
ag sanctions,
; " . . rz
Panama submitting counterproposal to World Bank reform
programay agree to some suffer public-sector cuts,
trade and.labor. probably still short of IMF. World
Bank conditions, more talks : '
Increased regional antidrug cooperation letTto sciiurc _
etric tons of cocaine from ship in Dominica Wednesday ver eastern J?
President Chadli Bendjcdjd yesterday resigrcd_party post as head of ruling National Liberation
distances presidency from panisanay.mearTherun3 presidential electiony
adical South Korean student^ attacked USIS Center in Kwangju yestcrday"dsToiesiingo damage, but police ihcreasting security for USore demonstrations planned, but low turnout likely
Violence spreading in Cameroon over President Biya'tof opposition demands for nationalationwide protests, sirilerideath tollplii* intensifying.
Top gt'CtCl
Special Analysis
To Enter the^ouih
President Harawi appears determined lo send trooptebanon on Monday. The ArmyU move first-lo secure she Palestinian-controlled areas between Sidon and Jauin.and later this year will try- to exert control our Hizballah strongholds; it probably nil, not go into the Palestinian refugee campi or enter Jazzin,
Palestinians nnd Hizballah'-J"
>
The LcbanescXiovccnmcni's talks with the PLO and local Palestinian officials to facilitate ihc Army's deployment arc hkely to continue untiliirulc. Beirut has warned thc Palestinians they will have to lura their heavy-weapons over to them from Lebanon, or takcthem to iihe Bekaa Valley and plare'them under Syrian com
Beirut apparenily is noi offering "the Palestinians many incentives to cooperate. Thc government Has rejected lhc PLO demand for official diplomatic representation.!
Thc Lebanese leadership appears to have decided tn leave disarming Hizballah until later. With insufficient manpower and equipment lo disarm Hizballah by Jbrcc thc Army probably will wait* until September, when it is slated to cnier ihc Bekaa Valley, to confront thc
coiti tinted
p
fa3
Shia militia. Hatawi it somewhat niorc confident that the Army will lie able to deal with Hiiballah after the Palestinians have been neutralizes
Resistance, the ASL, and Israel
siiiroisiil
Meanwhile. Hizballah appears to have increased its resistance to Israel's occupation of southern Lebanon since Abbas Musawi was elected secretary genera! ofthe organization last month. It has launched five attacks so far this tnonih. including the first attempt to infiltrate, bui the icvel or attacks for thc first half of this year ts comparable to last ycarj
'Musawi probably hopes resistance attacks will reinvigoratc his forces, who are
aee
at they wm prevent froniaiion wiih lhe
The Army of Southpredominantlyacked byAviv are ad toward the Lebanese Army's deploymc ASL has said publicly ihat hisear the group's stronghold inazzin Israel is concerned that resisiar deployment to shield their operations Tel Aviv and thc ASL have warned repeated resistance operations,-bui will try toebanese Army
une :1
Original document.
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