Warning Page
Concents
Situation Report
Iiracl-Lebanon: Tel Aviv Hinting Incursion Possible
f
Nolo
Testing Middle East Peace Prospects
Mounting Frictions Over Kashmir USSR: Yeltsin Pushes Land Reform
'6
Economic Conditions Spark Disarray
8
UN Officials To Monitor Ccase-Fire
Brief
Anajyaea
Race for Seciciary General Heating Up
Yugoslaviairror
Endara Government Facing New Challenges
83
(0)
Report
probably hai ordered air defease units not IO fire on coalition aircraft. The first large protest by Itlamic conicrvatlres slncK tost Horcmbce indicates religiou, tension is growing in Saudi Arabia.
leccni Irjqi firings probably were intended to harass the overflights and test US patience: having done this. Baghdad probably will become more caunous and cease firing at coalition aircraft at least tcmporaril)
Rtllgluus Tension Over Reform Growing
_|The protests were directed againsi government efforts to prevent one of the region's hardline religious leaders from declaring Saudi Arabia's most prominent advocate of reform to be an in^deidJfff-jB
Ground Forces Developments
demonstration is the first large protest by religious conservatives since last November when several thousand zealots protested in Riyadh against Saudi women who defied the ban on females driving. Since the end of the war wiih Iraq, tension has increased between Saudis who favor political and social reform and religious zeajotswho defend the Islamic legal and political system.
The chancesajor religious upheaval are limited by thc government's pervasive security network and by Ihe reduction of Western forces, which robs fanatics ofa rallying point.*'
continued
)
)
Continued insurgent activity almosi certainly will spur the Iraqis toecurity presence in the north even at they move units back to gam tons for rcconstitution. Kurdishossibly emboldened by the presence of coalition forces, are likely to cany out similar actions; Iraqi retaliation probably will stay clear of coalition forces bul could interfere wiih lhc return of refugees.
Problems for UN In Turkeyj "
UN High Commissioner for Refugees decided on Tuesday tofull responsibility for protecting and assisting refugees in northern Iraojind alonn the Irani -Turkish border.!
UNHCR haslear mandate and has(3)
uncertain whether it should register refugees toemains! forcible repatriation or provide humanitarian assistance.
he new decision and apparent progress in formulating plans may stave oil private relief^encJcs' concerns about the UNHCR's effective nets. fJjBLaatsaaiaBBIB^^B
Tel Aviv Hinting Incursion Possible
implied warning yesterday of impending Israeli military action in southern Isbanon probably is meant to show its reluctance lo
more ahead on Arab-Israeli peace negotiations unlil more immtdiale
border security issues are.
Tel Aviv probably is trying, to encourage the US lo press Syna for more action on disbanding militias in Lebanon, particularly in the south. An Israeli cross-border military operation might also be intended to provoke Syria and otber key Arab states intoy from ihc current effort to revive thc pence proems.fJJJJBJ
The Israelis have grounds for some concern that the Lebanese Government's cfTon to disband militias in the Beirut area will encourage armed elemenls to move south, from where they could attack Israeli forces. No major cross-border attacks have occurred in southern "
Israeli military activity outside the Israeli-declared securitysouthern Lebanon almost certainly would derail theeffort to deploy the Lebanese Army in the southdisband Lebanese and Palestinian miliiias. Damascusto any major Israeli incursion by renewing its demand forwithdrawal of Israeli troops from Lebanon andthe action as an example of Israel's lackBi
Ms,
b(3)
Testing Middle East Peace Prospects
Foreign Minister Beismertnyhh will almost certainly urgt all partltl to compromise lo spur mortmtnt toward Arob-Iiratli talks, but he It SXr'B fall diplomat relation -WrAduring his
When hc began his tour yesterday. Bcssmertnvkh played down hopes for any breakthroughs. TASS said he saw his tourest of whether -vici concept ofthe peace process matches reality in the region.
Besimcnnykh continued deflecting speculation that he
an.iouncc the resumption of full diplomatic relations with Israel whenits there tomorrow, restating thc Soviet position that Israel first must show genuine movemeni on the peace process. His spokesman implied Ihe rcsulis ofthe cniire lour willlearer idea ofthe peace prospecis and thereby resolve the question of restonna relations with Israel.
favorably, allowing the Soviets to. consider it most advantageous.
wi" lry co'heir chances for rapidly resuming Tull diplomatic ties by claiming serious interest in the peace process.
oegional conference.
b(3)
Mourning Frlciion* Over Kashmir
Spiraling Mime* and public recriminations orer Indian controlar, threateningndo month, of quirt diplomacy thatleaiton, between India and Pakistan. |
and New Delhi are trading harsh accusations over Kashmir. Senior Pakistani officials, including Prime Minister Sharif are condemning Indian human rights abuses of Kashmirihile Pakistani editorials are callingew diplomatic ofensiv-on Kashmir. New Delhi has accused Islamabad of directing the insurgencyKashmir Cell" and of masterminding lastidnapping of two Swedes in the region. MB
m Wf ofh'Sh-Ievel diplomatic exchanges had cased t'nsionn.ncc the two states nearly went to war last spring, but theKa?hmir "nd heightened public rhetoric almost
aVaa,
V ' l
lb)L
)
b(3)
Ycl'laln Pushes Land Reform
Thc Runjin leader hu for the nrst ilme used ihc extraordinary powers granted him by the Russian congress in April in order to help implement the republic land reform law passed lite last year. The order he signed on Tuesday cites foot-dragging by local officials in some regions of the republic and makes Russian congress deputies responsible for monitoring and reporting this month on the progress of distributing land to aniens for private farming. According totatic^ndenitestablished to date in
I -degating responsibilityhe deputies shows both fclistrust of entrenched local officials and his lack of an enecuve apparatus locany out his decisions. He may hope by puttine deputtes on the spot to get them to take more responsibility for implementmg legislation. Although the number of private farms is likely to increase sharply this year, so far they amount lo less than halfercent of planted Russian acreage. Continued obstruction from some local officials; limited availability of equipment, chemicals, and seed; and the remoteness of some parcels will also -Tmt^from pnvamaiton at least in the near term.
)
)
b(3)
1
b(3)
YEMEN; Economic Conditions Spark Disarray
Increasing unemployment and hard currency shonaacs arc luclirwisorder that probably will ,Ufgehe next few month.
economic
month Oaken ana butchers in the capital refused to sell ai official prices, and in Aden demonstrations
",ar? Payment, and poor
_ support for the regime will economic conditions continue to decline. TheOO Yemeni workers who were expelled from Saudi Arabia during the Pers.an Gulf war arc running out of savings and are likely to add to
e5omind ncw (bfc'*n'hem have been
funic. Widespread disorder would impede Salih's efTons to encourage
foreign investment in Yemen and may interfere with petroleum
exploration; unrest could alsoo spill over into Saudi Arabia.
UN Official. To Monitor Cease-Flre
)
other of cease-fire
regime and the resistance are aceusi violations, mostly shcllir
b(3)
The UN and the cochairmcn of the Paris Conference oni-rance anddispatched three military officers to encourage all Cambodian faction* to observe the fire, which begana> "
breakdown or ihe
would undermine the Supreme National Council meetine
ely scheduled for early next month in Jakarta. Theylan to establish communications with each faction's miliiary commanders, who have been left out ofthe peace process so far "Id could become obstacles to
In Brief
named USSR Railwaysleadership
idea
Moderate reformerirst change in efffical sector's leadership2 .. probably will stress equipment modernization but unlikelj to revive moribund rail system.
South Ossetia has dropped cUim to be full Soviet republic, asserting autonomy in Georgia but under. Communis! Party suppon likely, but Georgian legislature has effectively killed
Ycl'tsin may try to avoid involvement. _
b(3)
Bulgaria
Yugoslav- Presidency last night urunimously called on Army to oversee confiscation of weapons, end activity ofmilitiai in. effort to display evenhandednest between Serb and Croatnforcement of decision likely to spark more violence.
b(3)
Internal atrains in Algeria's largest opposition pany. Islamic Salvationxecutive Council contradicting moderate From president's call for general strike, legislative election boycott may help other Islamic parties in voteunr.| j rtj
* May IS? I
Special Analysis
for Secretary General Heating tip
)
election will take place this fall during the 4oth UN General Assembly. African candidates have dominated the race so far; they contend il is "Africa's turn" io hold the position, an argumenither Third World states accept. To increase Africa's chances withouthe OAU hopes to agreehort slate of
European countries believeregional rotation-should be thc first criterion in selecting ihc neat Secretary General.^
no citizen Irom
the nve permanent Security Council countries has served asformer Soviet Foreign Minuter Eduard Shevardnadzesard he would consider it if(3)
fvlany UN diplomats believe African candidates have an inside track, bui candidates from Cither regions also have emerged, particularl*
rmay be reluctant, however, to leave Osloeric_ substantial change in Europe. Oiher possible compromise candidates
continued
318
_ idoncsian Foreign^ inistcr Alatas. who has publicly stated his interest in thc petition ffJfffM
Outlook.
regionalremain thc important consideration (oralthough many will not ta. so publicly for fear of irritatingUSSR will robably join the US in trying to ensure that the next Secretary Ceneral is an expert manager and diplomat. The Security Council l use secret balloting for its pan of the election, allowing the five permanent powers to anonymously block candidates they feel arc unqualified or ttoublc-oinc to their national interest* amamamamtt
(hX>)
Special Analjsl-t
irror
Soviet! set Yugoslavia as thenultinational Stare suffering from tht centrifugal forces of ethnic discord, economic collapse, and paratyztd central authority. Tht Sovltts want diplomatic Initiatives on tht Yugoslav crisis so bt bilaitrel. both to maintainnjlutnct and to avoid strilng prtctdtnt, for inttrnasional middling in lhe threatened fragmentation ofthe USSR. Theyon violent solution thai prtttrvts Yugoslaw unity but rjigyrackdown that promises to aitrt civil
leadership also worries ihai the collapse of centra! authority in Yugoslavia would be followed by widespread ethnic violence, or even civil war. that could destabilize thc entire region. Soviet Foreign Minister Bcssmertnykhelgrade newspaper recenily that Yugoslavia's integritymajor prerequisite for liability infffffff/
Seeklog Yugoslav Unity, Western Hands Off
The Soviet leadership dearjyeaceful resolution Yugoslav crisis.
The Soviets also worry thai greater foreign involvement ia the Yugoslav crisis couldangerous precedent, undoubtedly one that could be applied to the USSRimilar situation.
continued
rrr
May IWl
bfe)
Loicow may. however, push for EC aidrelief for Yugoslavia, arguing (hai improved
conditions will reduce the possibility of violent
pectator
Moscow has only limited political and miliury influence over Yugoslavia's leaders. The Soviets' interests in Yugoslav unity, however, mean they almost certainly will continue their dialogue wi(rw" the Yugoslav federal government in suppon of political ratheriliiary solutions. Thc Soviets probably will also try to dissuade the ugoslav miliury from acting without authorization from thc polilical leadership. Nevenheless. Moscow probably believes and may argue that at somerackdown may be necessary to prevent civil war or violent dissolution, m gj
Moscow will hesiute to work closely with Washington on the Yugoslav issue to avoid thc precedent of foreign involvemenl. but thc Sovieis also believe the US would favor democratic solutions at the cost of Yugoslav unity. Nevertheless, they almost certainly would choose to work wiih Washington on some level rather than be left out of any US initiatives; they probably would prefer to keep such cooperation out of the public eye to avoid thc appearance of interfering. HflvasV q
Violent disintegration of Yugoslavia probably would turn thccloser cooperation with Washington and an emphasisthrough multilateral forums, particularly CSCEresolving conflict and monitoring human rights. Fearingby Yugoslavia's neighbors. Moscow would alsocommitment to respect existing
b(3)
cm
Special Analysis
ca Challenges
receni breakup of the ruling coalition gins President Endara an opportunity lo define an agenda for bit chaotic administration and to take control of lhe demoralised stcuril
Wiih loyalists from his Arnulfista Pany comrolling most of the government. Endara is nowosition lo impose discipline an< policy coherence on an administration that was nearly paralyzed by polilical rivalries before he ousied the Christian Democrats.]-
aaamajas- ^appears to havethe most powerful administration figure.
Public Force
The administration, which was miserly toward the financially strapped Public Force when it was under Christian Democraiic
Arnulfisias' effort to build up the Public Force will be controversial, particularly if they try to make it inio an instrument io harass or intimidate polilical opponents. The pany and the security
continued
?
forces historically have been enemies, however, and officers,ofreation of securityunits under hiswill be waryolu.cnl
Significant Economic Reform Unlikely
The administration is now even less likely to undertake meaningful economictance that probably will delay new loans from international financial .niiiiminne 1
f Christian Democratic leaders, many ofmeasures even when they were in therefused lo support the plan^theirlegislative pluralityenaciment highly unlikely.tmn
Faith In Democracy on the Line
The public is likely to hold Endaraigher standardnow that he seemingly controls the government. Ifdecides to put partisan politics aside and focusmanagement and addressing social andhe may be able to strengthen its politicalerilieism also may spur the administration to focusgoverning, especially if the Christian Democrats begin topolices, particularly economic
If Endara and his new team fail to govern responsibly, however. Panamanians probably will further lose faith in the effectiveness of civilian government and democratic institutions. Corruption and Amulfisia vindictivencss against political opponents could make the public even more cynical if it concludes the new government is reluming to the politics that prevailed before tbc miliiary takeover in
b(3)
D(3)
WI
Original document.
Comment about this article, ask questions, or add new information about this topic: