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lo US Inicrcais from Middk Famcen terrorist* hat declined dace ihc cod of the Gulfey factor in this il ihc inabilityUindinalion cf the -anout lUlf sponsor) of ltrrcri.ro loordti .inn while ihey ire Involved IniTW count oi the Arab-Israeli peace process willa major Impact on future terrorism, but radical iroupi with ihfir Otro agendas make lerroriii atUcfca againstoderate Arab, and USommulag poetibility.
Caarna
Tkti rnir-. tat DCIiter. Other
OA ai -til mi off-f iht OS Im/el-'ititir emeoweted tor.'ir A- r and ma, ot dotted to ihttdttO't
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East: TheTerrorist Threal
threaiUS Imcrrau from Middle Eastern terrorist* hu declined rioee the suspeatwn of hostilities in thakSolf. bui efforts to resolve regional problems end the milium igendu of eiiremisi groupa make ittrorist sets against Israeli, moderate Arab, and US targets possible at any time. The Palestinian Islamiciiballah. and the Abu Nidal orgaeoaiion (ANO) pose tbe mast* serious Ihreat lo US interests ovci ihe next severs! months.
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The end ofthe war has removed the immediate atalysi fee an ann-US lerrorist campaign by Middle Eastern esteem ills. Palestinian and Islamic fanda menu list readers and sUle iponson jcekcying for position in post-ir negotiations are unlikely to risk obenailng potential allies by uneiWning terrorism in coming
SpoosonHokl the Key..,
The restrictions imposed by itatc sponsori on Paltstinlan and Islamicgroups during ikeare likelyold In ike near term, dampening prospects for anti-US terrorism. Terrorist groups have been unwillingiolate restrictions because opportunities for alternative sappon have dwindledesult of Iraq's defeat, Syria's patiieipationjnthe coalition, and Iran's ambitions tooice In Gulf security planning. |
lean probably win continue to steer clear of anil-Western terrorism but may encourage additional terrorist operations against Israelajnan of its efforts lo gain influence over eitremistiani
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Iraq ii mtikclf id embark on major terroristong as SaddamCeuptMreetia binning Arab aad Wniim ilea and coalition forces remain in-ei<o- although HagSdid might jo aheadaome plans to pumsb Arab ttatei ihai cvccacd ham in ibe -af*4jBan*
oeeaTaRai
eH anti-US agendas make. Islamic group* an ever-pre tent threat US iiuarait in the Mieldle_
1 Hardl.ne
Hiiballah fa ei torn in Lebanon stronglyS presence (here and with the return ol US Am ban* dor Crocker tray resurrect plant lo attack Ihc US Embassy. Hiiliallth't anti-US fervor is probably btini fueled by lha growing perception in Ihe region ihai ihe Unitedllowing Saddam's forcei to massacre Shia rebels in louthem Iran dasststaBBjaanai *
O back removal i
Ihe ANO hai yet to folio* through on ils public pledgeetaliate against the Untied Slates for ihc eatradiiion alone of its operatives to Israel last October,t eventually will. In coming months, however, lhe group is likely lol onestern and Arabo back removal of Arafat as Paiesna* Liberation Organiiaiioo fPLOj Chairman. '
Caiat.mTa
Prospect, for Pakatininn terrorism win be mail affected by developmerli in ihe Arab-Isrscti peace process. PLO mfigaeiag. and Ihc status of ihe imifadah. Pa tollman etiremits enn be counted on to use icrronsm againsi US. Arab, and Israeli ttrgeu to torpedo peacetSai do not call for lhe quick establishment of an independent Palestinian slate rcgardleti of restrictions imposed by scale sponsor, Israeli Interest* worldwide -ill be the moti likely lataeti o' Paleilnian juration. I-
[Arafat's ability lo reiirasnLhardline PLC elements from conducting terrorism is likely to weaken in lhe montht ahead as hll financial situation awaan* and challenges io his leadership develop 0tff
TcrroritM may try loSaudi Aeabiar. the moreillion Muslims upccted during (hea June to launch attack, in protest of Riyadh's seance against Baghdad during the recentll irk fanatica mar also attack USaudi Arabia lo protest contiiuid US miliiary presence io Ihe proohei, birtftpUceoaaflgV
Sigalfkant Deitloprnrnti
tat* Saittack*
The eaecuiion-ityle assassination onatch ofUS civilian contractor in Istanbul underscore* ihc seriousnesshe lerrorist threatS inttrcsu infiom lhe lefliti lerrorist troop Oevocal manageronpanytuppori services for the US military in Turkey was shoi in Mi Istanbul Office by ihree (isatsms, one dressedoliceessage on Ike wall claimed responsibility on behalf of Dev Sol. linking lhe attack lo Turkish Problemnitbe Untied Statu daring the period0ar
moil recent US victimthe third American ihot by Dev Sol thii yearebruary aaotaet US eMtractoc wai murdered by Dev Sol in Adana aad. oaS Air Fence Lt Colonel wai seriously irjmred in an aiiauiutionin Isynirlhe daimi of responsibility for iheie atucks. De* Sol tingled out "US forcci. companltstablishments, and pro-American people and instriu-tioni" is the group's primary largtti. In addition, the group haa cairitd eatctnb aitatki against US aad Western facHuict Turkey since the beginning
The publicily tu>rounding its recent loalc of attacks againit US largelscuraged Dev Soltep up lethal operations. Tht group's willingnessevote the resources necessary to plaa aad conduct aa operation of Ihi*opposedarget ofides further evidtnct that US miliiary and corporal* personnel remain priority atsaaslnaiion largtti. Al the same time. Dev Sol's bombingurkish police nation in Istanbul oa II March, which hilled one oritur and injured four othcri. indicate! that the group will continuetiack its tratWIotul
PIRAof Murder
A Dutch courtpril ittriiiitedlackhe fair Provisional Irbh Republ-caa Army (PIRA) memberi charged with Ike ruder ofAustralian tourists onay IWJ. It sentenced the
court
ecouiitcd all four of the additional charge of belonging to an illegal organiiatHxi thai intendsommit crimes, discussing the Drosaaaaion's argumeau as "toohcnraecuraoa hadO-year sentente for each of iltfcti ter-
The fourMaGuiie, Gerard Harte, Sean Hick, and Paulcharied villi ihoMini Ihc Australian touriais in Rocrmond.aaaaaaajaasalwr. -nr ng-dmy Uriilih uldltts
willec-wcR lhaai leant ISm aeeixtied members pariiestaTiy Donna MaGairc. German orhcats mayailer chance ofonviction because of Germanspecifically |earedargeting and comSciiaao ^
hanglag Taelies? The roekei aiiaek onsrchy the Greek terroriitmay tigoat Ahc.sttrtrrotlil car
mma fhe I) November group allemptcd lo hil lhe Peaielikon Hotel inAiheni suburb witha rockel propelled grenade. The rockclree, however, and caused only minimal damage to the hotat The hold eaters lo wealthy touriiu, Greek etneiats. and foreign diplomats. The attackecentovember communtoac threatening American (minus. Eacrcitjag his authorityew counicrtcrroritmreece! chitf proacctiior banned publication of ihc anlld-
o-emberclaiming reaponslbttoy fee
Thc IT November groupirulently aoli-US: last moethorce sergcaai oultiek hitfourth Americanajatce ItlS. Anackse troop since lhavatM of Kawarl have included several tale-aught bombrngi of US and Bnwh baakJ lhat scmcc touruu and forean businesses ia Greaea.
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Although tomisu have not yet beenrolonged campaign againsi touriti targets would doaiiaic Gitcce'i tourist industry, almost certainly leaving theuojtilfen ine>rii payment).
jkinji have jttecover Irom ihe Gull warurlhar plungeur Urn would wipe out the benefit! recent EC loan, probablyebt rli ii 1 Baa
[.Supporters of thc conservative governmeni predominate among leiriimcrt. and ibe icrrorttlt
tee lhc economicilrr.iKiWl
0 y
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Red Am* Faction Terrorist Campaign Cofitlnatt The Red Army Facaion'1 (RAF) esaasilnaUOnpril of Detlev Karatcn Roh-eddcr. one of German,', leadintndicate* (hai senior German poliucal and economic officitJi involved in unification iatuea remain among Ihe RAF* primaryi chief executive of Ihc Truaiholding company reapotuiWe for revaluing state-owned enterprises in lhe former Gerwa Democratichad come under increaiing Are for -easterncdlbmic hardship, andogical target for thc RAF.he th<rd senior German officialihe secondthe-RAF since the group began iu current lerrorist offensive with the ataasslnilioneuiKhe Bank chairman Alfred Herrhau.cn in November
ReveeuSo-ary Cell* Bomb NATO Pipeline
The kfl-ing lerrorist group Revolutionary CelU (RZ) cJaimed responsibiliiy for Ike bomb attack on It March that slightlyection of ihe NATO fuel ppelme in Emtiek. Germany, near the Dutcn border. Aircraftearby Germanans thai receive jet fuel from Ihe damaged pipeline seetion had been deployed lo Turkey during ihe Gulfn the letter claiming rtaponsibiliiy for ihe auaek. ihe RZ condemned ihc presence of -imperialin forces'- in the Gulf and taprcued solidarity wiih Ihe Kurdish andtg^fa. Lj ^
Tbe RZ has remained relatively ouiei throughout the Gulf crUU; Ihe pipeline attack -a. ihe group's first Gulf-related operation since the bombing of the Victory Column in Berlin onanuary. Moreover, despite iu anti-imperietUt phiknopey. the group usually conduct, atucks in connection wiih domestic such as anumiliiarlam. women's andighis, environmental protection, and the pretence of NATO force* In Germany. The RZ. Ilk* Ihe more violent Red
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interestsombing of Peace Corps* ecrkes inus bombing in9 that wounded three US senrenade attack that wounded seven US soldiers in La Cclba inus attack lhat wounded seven US servicemen InG fajjtflgr ft
Both ibe Cinehoneros and the FPM have received iraining. weapons, and iogislic support from Cuba, the Nicamguan SandinUUs. and the Fan bo ado Marti National Liberation M.
Update On Kidnapping of US Petroleam eagiaccs-s
The live* of the three US petroleum engineers held hostage by theArmy (ELN) may have becayendsngcrcd wiih the capture ofOctrdo Poenar. who
kidnappings onnarch, the Colombian Arm _Pomar, along with several other high-ranking ELN members,
The ELN usually releases its foreign kidnapping victims unharmed, bul in this ease, the arrest* jeopardiie ihe lives of the three hosiagct:
The ELN. which has noi yei made iu demands known Ut the release of lhe he*-tages, could decide lo use them at bargaining chips lo gel their leaders released, threatening lo kill them unless their demands arc met.
'. which ,
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Should Ike Army determine tbe Ice. lion of lheay decide to attempt aaiiempis in lhc past have had ml.ed success, freefuemly resulting In ihe deaths of lheotable recenihe attempied rescue in January by ihe Colombian National Police ofiana Turbay. Ihe daughter of former president Julio Ccsiretulted in her death and Ihe freeing of several others held with her. i
Sm.'l Bomb* Nearbatsy Underscore
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Dirided litem
from Its betinninss la the seventh centuryem hastrong tendency to divide along sectarian lines, primarily over lhe succession to the leadership of the Islamic community, ond.esser extent, over questions of dogma and religioushese disputes spurred sectarian warfare Ihat has flaredrepeatedly ever since. Mjsiwo mafor sects, the Sunni ond the Shia. athat occurred shortly of lee Muhammad'se Issues thai today tie at the heart of Iran's
rivalry nith Sovdi Arabia JKhWT..
Sunni lllarx
More thenercent of all Muslims belong to lhe Sunni or orthodox wing of hlam. Sunnis consider Ihr Koran to be God's final revelation and refect elertcal mediation between Cod end the Individual Muslim. Sunnis eccept no central authority for theof Islamic low. Sharia. tnstead. four reboots oflianas. Shafil. end Mallkl. all doling from the eighth and nintheontidered equally valid,unni Muslim may
folio* any one ofihem. Saudi rVahhebism Is based on the conservaiive Hanboli schoolof Sunni Islemte
Jurisprudence and calls for strict interpretation of lhe Koran and Sonne, obligatory prayer, and rigorous
Sunnis generally hold that Ihe Caliph or Imam, lhe Itadrr of the Islamic community, *ted not be In the line of ihe Prophets immediate family, although deteent from his tribe, lhe Quraysh.pecial tarhei. bnauwm. .
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Shia Islam
Shia Islam Is based on the belief that tht legitimate leadership of Ihe Islamic communliy rests exclusively with Ihe descendants of lhe Propheton-indjapr Alt. lhe Fourth Imam. Over time, disputes over the line of succession ond doctrine spurred the formation of ShiaZayidi of northern Yemen, the Ismallts af Pakistan and East Africa,ahals of Iran ond the Altwiits ond Drute of theespouse highly dlverte ond exoteric doctrinei. Most Shia, hementr. belong to lhe main-stream Iihna Ashartya sttt. the to-called Twtltri. urho predominate In Iran, Iroq. and Bahrein and form ^jforalliy In Lebanon. Saudi Shia are alto Twelvers.
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Shia accept the doctrine af the Indivisibility ofand political decisionmakingiteral sense. This makes ll easy foe Shia adherents to acceptuets who interpret ellandtht spirit of en Intern In the line of Ali. Shia ofthe lihna Ashariyo sect emphasise tht transcendental quality of tht tmamaie. They believe the llih Imam (henceemidivine person-age who disappeareds alive but hidden and "ill retum to lead Islam. The view represented by the Ayatollah Khomeini thaftlergy must establish
ISy posilion among most Shia theologian,.
Shia venerate Hutoyn. the grandson of Muhammad,loas stain by Sunnis.usayn's death is commemorated by Twelrer, on Ashura. lhe holt'tlt day af lhe Shia year, with highly emotional passion plays and processions. That spectacles art marked by self- flagellations of mourners and occasionally turn violent. In recent years. Saudi authorities have banned Ashura pratesSlant in lhe Kingdom fj"^
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Chroooldgy of
Below ere described selected noteworthy foreign and international eventsterrorist! or the use of terrorist tattles. These events have occurred or come to light since our lasl issue. In some eases, the ptrpetretors end iheir motivations moy not be known Events and developments that have already teen detcribed elsewhere in ihis publication ore not^ g
It February
Germany: An Indhidual attacks three US elllttntandgun and grenade In tht Berlin Hotel, injuria!No jioue has claimedIj
Italy: fire damagetfive vehicles, fear emmtd by US pert pant I, ia the Cdsolt area of Brinditi. No group hai claimedJj|gTaV' 'tj ^
Two guamtn shoot andS Air foret officer or tke eiclim enters kit rtsiicnet in Itmir. Dev Sol has3
Tuektyz Two gunmen thou enda policeman In the Yt'imakallt district of Ankara. The victim mam ted to return fire, possibly injuring one of tbecv Sol Claimed
Turkey: Autkorities trrett tlx Kurdiih Workers Fany members during sofchouse raids in Istanbul, selling utaponi,nd^
Italy: Aa explotiii device detonaietfoetor and Gambit diiiribution office in Padua. No (roup has claimedV-"^
Spain: Esplotivt delicti damage fame electrical towtri in three Spanish townt. The Radical Guerrilla Army of the Free People of Gatlcla claimed responsibility.
France: Two expletive derictsuilding of the Electricity and Gas Services damage the building and ll official vehicles. Ipatretarrak is suspected^
Veltacie. Basque
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Spaia: Pelletar bombowntowarditrricl ofand Liberty (FTA| claimed
Police arretember, of an Adana tell of DtvSol. Police believe the cell Is responsible for several recent terrorist
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ardeioaain la friu of ike Consliontralut affiie ia
Madrid. ETAuipec^fgejjjj-. fy^
March
ate*
Twu leparatlillV/aff heat-nan ia front of hii widen,in toaikeaiiern Adiyomar. Prariaci
rioaairoikoor ar ike American Likraey iaJerutalem. Anil-USiwd by lhe Koch Movement, wuvwiby dj^
Iiroel: Maiked men ikeot andtutpeeud collaborator near Aikfuelon. (U)
Ubanon: South Letmaeie Army loldiee, diicomrr two rather lea.cke; along the Gal.lee Panhandle. The Uuseaeri -ere aimed al liiacl agajkt i
Calambra An eiploii* charge dama*et iker-o-tliat in eantrn Cedamtia. The Nmo-ui Li bee* ties Army (ELN) cUimfd Ieiporuibrilly
Chile: Maimer torktail, are thrownormon ehureh la Vtlpoeoiio, touting minor damage.of/Mw- i
ener bomb eiplodt, la ike office of ihe independent Comminion on Humanriouily wounding ear
unman ihoon outnreitigatlet thief Oaliide hiiThreerrterloully inured.ixo Ponulaeclaimed
Chile: Politeomb found in froar of the Bank af ge,ten it. Santiago.
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owerful bomb eiplodes at tke police itttit ir. rertemue fHL
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1 exploit! in Peskawar ai Ike tafiiertliik-spoatared
humanitarian organiialion for Afgkaa tejuttrti.i
A bombtxploditaudi Airtintiafice in Karachi, eaaiiag minor^
Tarrariitt atlaek aa Aatlraliaa-Amerieaa ast iona Sy4nei with firtbombt, taailag minor 4amagt ffM J
omb txplodetlaema and million tehaol in Gajrat, killing three prisons aad teriouiiy injuring tlx. MM,-
India: Sutpetied Motltm militanti Are reehett at the UnitedNattoat office In Jammu and Kashmir. After mining theirhey attacked lhe building with gunfire MhWuTi L
a US Nary boating eompeaa4 In Yokohama
An imfrorited explosive derice detoaatrt at the oBxcei of the Swediih Committee for Afghaaittea to Pttkawar, killlag aat^
New People's Army rebelt kldaap theJhayor ofSanehei htira, Cagapan, and Ah family. The family rcponcdly wit relet tedcr fgtV
uexaa City Court sentences taipeeti ta life imprisonment for killing Col. Jemet KoweAoamM
ebruary
Southai ambush arar Sweitwaters killteople aad Injures II,Nalionalt
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