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Ir.arLeb-.oa: Playing Politic. Wlta
- players in then hostage situation may try io turn regional development* io their own advantage, but no aide hai made concessions,ear-term breakthrough appear* doubtful. We ^believe.Iranian President Kafunjanl hat enough political capital to override hardline opposition to further releases. He will more cautiously, however, to avoid appealing to knuckle under to thc maulve Western military presence In tbc. ajssstasssgf
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Terrorism Dt*r> for{fjtg
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Terrorism Hetiewi
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og PoUiIca With Wwtera HotUgc*
d In ibe Lebanon hoiiage muatlon may attemptrn fast-breaking regional developflaanu to their own advantage, but there are no concrete indicationsreakthrough is imminent. No tide hat made conccttiont SO far. and most players arc looking for hlnu ot ACtlbility in others. Iranian President Rafsanjani. who rinds the continued detention of Western hostages an impediment to Iran't effort* to capand ilt regional wearily role, may view ihit as an opportune lime lo leal US and Israeli flcaibilily on the hostage issue. Receni aciioat by Syria and the new Lebanese Government alto appear lo be tncreatlng the pressure on Hiiballah. and the group almost certainly it nervoui about pottible renewed tflciu loiecurrhoalagc rcleaM BV
leaa: Tearta* tbe Waters!
We believe that Presldcm Rafsanjani ii continuing io workesolution of the hosuge Isiuc. but he mult move carefully loacklash from hardline el-emenit within Iran and Hiiballah. According lo proas reports. Iran-is offering astittanee in securing freedom for the Weatcrn hbttagca in exchange for US pressure on liracl to release Shaykhfrom southern Lebanon by Itracl Defense Force* (IDF) inran will alto coniinue to demand ihe re-leate of Lebaneac prisoners held by the Israelyeonuolled Army of Souih Lebanon. Tehran may continue to seek ihe rekatc of four Iranians abducted by the Lebanese Forces raililiahe rtsoluiioo of the Ubayd ittuc and teiile-menia favorable to Tehran at ibe US-Irto claimi tribunal ai The Hague, however, significantly reduce tbe salience of tbii Ittue ata legitimate dccund.JJJ)jJB> e> 3
It it doubtful lhat Tel Aviv would agree io free Shaykh Ubayd without securing the release of Ronavigator (hot down over Lebanonnd olher IDF personnel who are milting in
Thc teven-monih confrontation between Washington andhard, line opposition to dealing wiih the United Siaict during thatditiuaded Rafianjani from moving forward on ihe nonage issue. Allhough we believe Rafsanjani has the political capital necessary io override ihc protests of hardliners, he probably wai concerned about criticism from ihem. The continued pretencerge number of US troops in Saudi Arabia tuggcitt thai
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a near-term releaie ii unlikely, because Tehran would noi want to bc-pcrcclvcd at negotiatingetition of weakness. In addition. Iran mar be waiting to- what offer* Washington make* at the neat round of negotiation* at The Hague. Tehran ha* long sought to link the release of frozen etteis to ihc hoaiagei aadjaatj,
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Briiain'* rceeai dceltiott lo depori Mthrdad Kokabi, an Iranian charged in connectionomb attackookalorc telling TheSmtmrnJ* Ycrui. hclpt Btfnby removingMaj by hardliner*hc releaseof Western fccaiagci. Uaforiaaaicly.Ti abo reinfoccca Tehran's view ihai Waihing. too.London, erveoiuatly willeal favorable to Iran. The'pceult: hai Kokabil release may help secure freedem fcr Ifce B'ilnh hotis in Beirut, but wc do not ih.nk Iran will play all lit cards at onee J
HotUg* HeWcn: FnUagturedl
The recent actlviiiea o( olher player* In Lei Hizballahenewed
anon almost certainly arc making of lhc Western
appcart to be increasing iu effortt to resolve ihe hostage issue Syrian Vice Presides! Khsddama led thai ihe wbiect wat raised wiih Tehran during foreign Minincr VcUyail't trip to Danuseu. inarchSgSktBaWthe ittut wasettedtnusni Vk> rWdent Hasaan Habibi. Although Syria would Ix.Vto lakeor
: the hostage problem, il generally hat playedmall rok. if any.
. Thc lan two hotiagcs who have been freed were held byughniyah's Itlamic Jihad Orgafiitationughniyah rnoti likely would reteni Iranian effoiu to kccurc lhc release of another IJO hoatagc at thit lime, viewing any auch rtu-. as anori lo draw dewn hii pool of hottag Brst.1
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Tne Terrorism Diary for Mij
Belowompendium of May daiei af known O* conceivable xiandleanee to lertorlitt around ike world. Our Incluiionale or event thau.'d noi by lltelf be conjt-yed to lutteti thai we expect orommemorative urrariu
1The fast wcet of May contain*dale* imporioni io kfi-inj
righlwingonseeiuenily. political violence tends io peak during ihii
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Soeieliu World. May Day (axnm.ma.la Labor violence in Ctucago)
I MayDesiruciac of electoral material in Ousiebi. Caogslki Province, matki ihe
beginning of the armed struggleendero Lumineoo. iteommemorated byiolence throughout May. bat especially on lo May
3World. Qudi Day or Jerusalemprotest Israeli Occupation
of Jerusalem.
Jewiih World, Commemoration of the Holocauil.
King Hasayn assumesower.
J MarLetmkm. An Air Lanka jetliner is bom bad by Tamil tcparaiisu at the Colombo
airport;ersons kitted.thers wouadod.
Independence Day.
- MayKasinga Day (commemorates Ibe ti.fl- South Afiicaa forcer thai kfi
hundreds dead}.
' MayChukaku-ha (Nucleus Faction) Arcs five homemade rockets at lhc opening
of iha economic iimunlt; no casualllea.
Cinco de Mayo (com roe morale* victory over forces ofayLiberation Day.
J MayUberauon Day.
3ATO.
5 MarIreland. Death of Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA) member
Bobby Sandsunger strike.
It Mart1TT9W
GR8 3
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irthday of Ayeioileh Ruholleh Khomeini.
Libcraiion Day.
a MayCapitulation of the Third Reich.
$ MayArmed diuidcmi aluck Qadhan'l AlUalya barrack).
Independence Day MayVictory Day.
Roland. Victory Day. USSR. Victory Day. Yugoslav/a. Victory Day.
Germany, Suicide in prison of Ulrike Meinbof. the founding member of the
Red Army Faction (RAF),
rab Rctittancc Day.
IiratL Independence Day.
Night of Sikh bombing* le.vejounded in Ne* Delhi and
other cilia.
14Independence Day.
Independence
Middle Eon. Beginning of the ftni Arab-Iiraeli war.
Palatine Day (end of UNheay Ot gamut ion
founded*emnant of thc Special Operation* Croup of ibe Popular Front for tbc Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) takes iu name from this event.
lo MayFounding of Sudanese Peoples Liberation Army (SPLA) and the Libera-
tion Movement (SPLM|.
ayConstitution Day.
ayIiratL Signing of the troop withdrawal accoroatknown as thcay
agreement).
IS MayKorea. Civilian uprising against military rule; usually marked by student
detnoastrations.
0
$
3
9
1
May
0
1
5
7
6
May
3
/7
1
0
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Inland. Death of PIRA. hunger Striker Raymond McCrecsh. Vietnam, do Chi Minn's birthday.eath of Jok Marti. Sri Lanka. Republic Day.
Wan Germany. Proclamation of thc federal republic. Calaa. Tibet it declared lo be under Chinese sovereignly.
Bmddhlit World. Birthday of Gautama Buddha. Argentina. Beginning of tbe revolution against Spain. Yugotlaria. Birthday of Jotip 8roe Tito. Jordan. Independence Day.
Jordan. Constitutional monarchy Is caiaUlshed.
Africa. African Freedom Day; Day of Africa (founding of Organiialion of African Unity).
Colombia. Founding of the Communist Party of Colombia/Marout, the parent organiialion of the terrorist group People's Liberation Aim--
Bermuda. Bermuda Day (Constitution Ii adopted).
Guyana. Independence Day.
liratL Jerusalem Day.
Franca, French Caribbean. Caribbean Revolutionary Alliance (ARC) surfaces with IT coordinated bombings.
Dominican Republic. Liberty Day (assassination of Cen. Raphaeligeria. Declaration of Independence by Biafra. BangladeiK Assassination of Ziaur Rahman.
South Africa, Union Day (four province* mcrgccWw form the Union of South Africa).
South Africa. Proclamation of lhc republic.
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Cfarooology of
art deicribtdttltcttdnoteworthyforeign and International eventsterror in, or the use of terroriil tactics. There tvtnti have occurred or tome to light since our lost Issue. In some tain, lhe perpetrators and thtlr motivations may not bt known. Events ond developments that have already been described tlsewhert In this publication are not
Two tombs dttoattt under vehicles belongingrench nationalreek luslntuman, probably token foe an American. In Aylt Feral her i. No group bis claused responiieiliiyaj|i
at bomb teplodti el lhe Malaga action gate. Injuring tht Warden 1The Basque Fatherland and Liberty ti luipeeted.
Neethtra Ireland: Twetre Prorhtennl Iriih Republican Army (PIRA) itrrortutrltleh Aimy cMckpoInt atac Cranntgltn with maehlntgunfirt and mjrtmr mmdi. Thi mor/tar roundi foiled lo etr'ole. .
Yugoslavia: Three molotov cScktattt ate thrown at iht VSIS center In Sarajevo. No group hai claimed rtaponiibllity.djl
omboint VS-Sponlih oil pipttlut In Cordoba. The Ooe October Amiout Rcaiilar.ce Group claimedi> Ly
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Anntca
ebruary -
BratlhAm eiploxin derlee I, found outtlde a
Perm Three Moimo* chapelt art attacked with dynamite charge, Im lea. Propaganda left al ihe teene mentioned ibe Gnu*
amo It defused aattlde ike Aomt of the JapaneseAmbattador. No group claimed rcaponiibiilly.dfp
pipe bomb It ditcaieeedeitaaramt Im Caracal. No group claimed respontibillty. CjjBj
Guatemala; ike Canadian Embaiiy Ii ike target ofa di/re oy ikootlmg In Gaatemala City. Properly damage wai slight.djjfs ri"^
Peru: Four Mormon chapeli are bombed In Chlclayo. One Mormon official was slightly injured, but damage was slight. tVJjja.
Chile: Two Mormon chapel, are bombed mad another burned In Santiago. Aad-American slogans relating to the Gulf war were painted on the front of tbeJJJJ
omb explode, at the US Embaity, earning me Imjurle, or damage.
Two hamdgrenadei explode at the retidence afanSaltlth employee of the Yemen-Hunt oil company InAI Hmdaydah, causing no Injuria, cr daman, bam
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Original document.
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