MEMORANDUM. Estorllno ?
Ulsaealnatlon of Information on the Guatemalan Situation
the premls that tho Agency should diesesdn'tte the fulloston the present Guatemalan situation to tbe intelligence cccrounifcfcy
within the llmista of operationnl security, the following reccorendotions ore suhnittedt
indication of tho possibilityevolutionays" should bo disaomineted to the Intelligence ootaminlty
. via preliminary disseminations. This "estimate" should bein ct least five separate
estimate should take the form of Washington ^omenta whichuse overt information to give the "large picturo" as ato fragmantary, covert information from tha field stations.
oonments should contain sufficient information to give a picture of the following facta!
four important faotors are tho Cccnaunlst-influonoodarmy, the anti-Corarunists, ond the peasants under
recent arms shipment together with the strong reaction ofAmerican countries and of the United States has provokedwhioh has been long browinr among the above four groups.
result of this crisis has led to the suspension ofend tho possibility of an OAS conference to discussin Guatemala,
positions of the four factions in tho crisis are e0 followai
1. The Giiatcmslnn government strongly rejects any implication of
Communist influenoe in the government and blames all its troubles on the United Fruit Company end "reaotlonay elements" whom the President recently told his cabinet "we will imiillictator if thny want me tohe suspension ofguarantees coupled with previous official announcements of the desire of the President to settle the whole matterersonal Booting with Eisenhower and other reports of the President's desire to thrash out the whole problem In the OAS indie-(os the Govcrnjnent la vnolll'-ting ond asot cone up with any firm line in this crisis except to stay in power.
The onti-Conmunlste hrvc shown Increased ci^ns of strength ns iridic tod by the hidden anti-Corariunlat brordonsting at tion, tho appearance of unidentified rircroft dropping ontl-Conmunirt leafleta over major Guatemalan cities in*ae of Carlos CASTTLLG Armas, and Govornr.cnt disolosreveil organized plot* against the regime. Tho fact that constitutionalwere suspended after disclosure of thr plot by tho Civemrent indicrtes tho Oovcrnrf-nt still does not have the situ-1ion urrior control. Reports of widespread arrests in the provinces indicates extensivetinont throughout the country.
Tho Amy's wellnti-Corisjnist foolings have beenso far by their lorylty to President AHBrIT2ellowd tlx widespread feeling in Anny circles thct tho .rry must remain apolitical. The shipment of Cornuniot arms to Gu temalr and the realisation thnt ARBHC has rut Binself onoo andn the Connsunist camp has now made it necessary for Army officers tolean choice between Guaterarle nnd Comounism,fficers hive already defected, and other indioatlons point to
the possibilityplit into loyal nd opposition factions within the Army.
h. The peasants, although non-Connunirt ideologically due to their relative indifference to politicalhave followed Communist diredtion in agrarian reform nmtters end ore bring exhorted to resist nndy nnti^ovorrmcnt/onti-Cocrnmirt activities as boing really directed against conpletion of agrarian reform and land distribution. With or without rrms, they would not hesitate to provoke bloodshed to protect their suppooed egralian reform gains, and reports indie tes seriously thfciking of armyng them, oven againstkxaxxnbt opposition.
An analysis of the above indicrtes thrt an intransigent Government position suprorted by half-armed peasants in oppositionnvorying Army and strengthened antl-Comaunist forces nay well rosult In extensive bloodshed which oould bo touched off by extreme action on the part of any one of the four
It is suggestedhe rcle of CAJj IG"RIS should be Increasingly stressed in die crain' tions based on tho foot that overt reports of anti-Cormmis'always mention his name rnd agency non-regegnition of this established fact uculd lead to spphistlcated guesses ca to tfc- reason for Agency silence.ecent dissemination reported that the GurVwlnn Guordla Civil had sent two groups of six men to Honduras endv^dor to killidnap CALIIGrRISd this ceuld bo referred to frequently as proof tohct tho
Cii tamnlanaGovernnont rcgrrds him 's their strongest opponent.)
Because we cannot know in ndvanoe what will be- reported as straightfrom the field station, and bocaure it will be necessary to run the above points systeaptScelly torounded picture" of tto situation, it Is suggested that the points to bo stressed by agreed upon ond thereafter the spoolflo manner in which they should be released as Washington Comments be de-oided ae opportunities arise.
The actual outbreak of hostilities could be predictedays nrior
? outwithing the Cmrdio Civil that the GuHemale-nCovenant hasajor attempt to
and couldbeforehand vith the GuatemalaOriginal document.