CABLE TO DIRECTOR FROM LINCOLN RE GUATEMALA 1954 COUP

Created: 6/21/1954

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

DATE

JUNE 5U

FBOM

ACTION:

LINCOLN

WH

CI,

^ 1UNR *TJMSOI ATE

OIR

RYBAT PBSUCCESS

SLINC

FEEL MAY SE USEFUL TO PROVIOE OUR GENERAL VIEWS:

EOT)^REGIME HASL TOWNS THERE-

A. CONFLICT STILL IN TWO PARTS, FIRST, STRICT MILITARY CALLIGERIS PHASE, SECOND, HOPE OF ARMY DEFECTION PROMPTED BY HIGH LEVEL TAKE OVER FROM REGIME. sf1

AS YET' WHOLLY UNTES CHOSEN TO PERJlj^lNITiAL MOVER^ORE HAVE BEEN TAKEN WITHOUT SHOT. SOME VOLUNTEERS HAVE JOINEO

BUT HE HAS ARE PITIFULLY SMALL.

U

C. REGIME PLACING SOON TO START ACTIVE OPPOSITION WITH HANK PROA SIGNIFICANT MOMENT^.yPHASE. CALLIGERIS VICTORY WHICH CAN ONLY OCCUR BITH AUTHORIZED AIR ACTION PLUS POOR OPPOSITION OR FAILURE TO DEFEND PROVE GREATBOTH TO CALLIGERIS FORCES AND FOR DEFECTION AND INTERNAL RESISTANCE SUPPORT. CHANCES OF SUCCESS ARE HOWEVER SLIGHTSMALL ATTACKING FORCES PLUS PREPARED DEFENSES.

tT IS FOWUIODENOPY OF THIS MESSAGE Coot Mo

UNE 54)

0. MEANWHILE NO EVIDENCE OF ARMY TAKE OVER IN CAPITAL HAS APPEAREO THOUGH THERE IS STILL CIRCUMSTANTIAL EVIDENCE THAT ARMY IS SPLIT ANO NOT SOLIDLY BEHIND REGIME.

E. ASSUMING EITHER VICTORY OR DEFEAT AT HANK WITHOUT SUBSTANTIAL ARMY DEFECTION OR TAKE OVER HE HILL OE FACED BITH THE NECESSITY OF PROVIDING CALLIGERIS WITH ALL POSSIBLE SUPPORT. 2. IN LIGHT ABOVE VIE BELIEVE

BE IN POSITION GIVE ALL POSSIBLEACTION NOT ONLY YO AIO ITS SUCCESS BUT TO PROVE TOA FOE OF SOME POWER IS INVOLVED. THIS INCLUDES THEGIVE SUCH AIR SUPPORT AS THE MILITARY REQUIREMENTS DEMAND.

AIR STRIKES AGAINST IMPORTANT TARGETS SUCHSTORAGE AT ADAM AND BOND AS DELLS

AS RAIL BRIOttfiS,PVal PURPOSE OF WEAKENING OPROTTljpU AS WELL ASLrY*l*JG THE POOOF

ALLEGEDLY REQyJRED-BYAND ARMY^

O EXTENT THAT WSBURijl* TERR|TQBY IS TAKEN BY CALLIGERIS POSSIBILITY OFTRIPS INCREASES AND LANDING APMS OP TAKING OFF FOR MISSIONS THOUGH SOMEORMaBtY CUE

LACK

A.li^CWOCUSlbNr ^STRICTLY MILITARY TYPE SITUATIONATERIALIZED ANO IT MUST BE TREATED AS SUCH OR COMPLETE DEFEAT ACCEPTED. WE URGE FORMER ANO REQUEST AUTHORITYROAD RATHER

c)

THANPIECEMEAu BASIS TO TAKE ACTIONS SET FORTH INBOVE AS SITUATION REQUIRES. SUCH AUTHOR ITY MAY NOT ACHIEVE SUCCESS 8UT LACK OF SAME IN OUR OPINION WILL PROBABLY MEAN TOTAL OEFEAT IN ABOUT U& HOURS. THIS CONCLUSION HAF BEEN FORCED ON US BY REFUSAL TO OATE OF ARMY TO ACT AGAINST REGI IE.

5. ABOVE REQUEST NOT BASED ON FEELING THAT LINC VIEWS DIFFER FROM THOSE OF HQS BUT ON INEVITABLE TIME LAGS RESULTING FROM COMMUNICATIONS. REVERSALS ONCE THEY BEGIN HILL ONLY BE PREVENTED IF AT ALL BY QUICKEST POSSIBLE COUNTER ACTION.

END OF MESSAGE

CABLE SECRETARIAT COMMENT: MR. ESTERLINE, BH, NOTIFIED OF

RECJHfiJ'OFO33O

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Original document.

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