INTELLIGENCE ME MORAND UM
DEVELOPMENTS IN FORESTRY AND FORESTTHE SOVIET BLOC,
' CLA/RR04
NATIONALi, TBK
wince HV ANY HiOitTJirj:
LAW.
AfTEfTTUiG the STATES WTHIK THESC, SECS. SSJON OR REVELATION OF TO AH UtfAUJHORIZED PERSON is
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Office ol Research and Reports
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FOKEVOSI)
It lo not intended that this mecorandufiiefinitive study of the; timber industry in the Soviet Bloc- Discusaion end analysis are therefore confined to the most significant developaentG ln forestry and forest products in the Soviet Bloc3 snd. the first quarterk.
Many of the numerical data appearing in this memorandum do not represent measured or weighed quantities. They are estimates and approximations based on an appraisal of all availablehe range of error is generally within the range of plus or minus percent.
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.[HP
TabJea
of the Gross Production Plan
for Timber and Paper by Specified Hiiii3tries
in the3 7
of Wood and Wood Products from the USSR
and the Baltic 9
of Wood and Wood Products fron the USSR,
10
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PlSVELOPKBrrS IH FORESTRYKOHKST PRniw^THK SOVIETJ3*
Sinr-iry
As the economy of the Sovietontinued to expand3 the need for wood and wood products increased. Supplies of woodor use, however, were lnadrxruate, even though the3 production ofn the Bloc anountcd to anillion cubiconsiderable increase over the2 productioniUion cubic meters. 3 production consistedillion cubic meters of industrialillion cubic meters of
The USSR produced aboutercent of the total Industrial wood and aboutercent of the total fueluood of the Soviet Bloc. The European Satellites producedillion cubic meters of industrial wood andillion cubic meters of fuclwood, and Communist China produced thcillion cubic meters of industrial wood andillion cubic meters of fueluood.
After Uorld War II the timber industry in the USjR consistently lagged behind Uie other sectors of the economy, lt failed to meet production goals and, consequently, octedrake on those sectors which depend on wood for construction aid operation.
Communist China continued to increase production of timber by means of large investments that opened up new forest areas. Based on plan fulfillment claims2 and goalsroduction of industrial
* The estimates and conclusions contained in this memorandum represent, the best judgment of the responsible analyst as
Soviet Bloc as used in this memorandum includes the USSR, Communist China, Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Last Germany, Hungary, Poland, and Rumania.
Total production of timber is defined os total output of all roundwood.
Industrial wood is all uood not.uelsawlogs,am' the Kuelwood is all wood useC as fuel.
wood is estimated to have increased fromillion cubic meters inaboutillion cubic meters It ia estimated that tlicindustrial wood will reach fromillion toillion Increasing .constructionwill
emphasize the necessity for adequate supplies of building timber.
Thc European Satellites areigh level of forest exploitation. Estimated output of industrial wood3 wasillion cubic meters,ercent of the total output of timber. It is estimated that production of industrial wood4 will be frommillion to million cubic meters; the emphasis will be on construction -timber. Shortages of certain wood products, however, have plagued many of the Satellites. East Germany, for example, has suffered from shortages of pitprops and .railroad crossties.
!-'Soviet Bloc trade in wood end wood products consists largely of imports and exports by the OSSR. The major Soviet import factor3 uas5 million cubic meters (rounduood equivalent1') of wood from Finland, and total Soviet exports during that year wereillion cubic meters. Increasing internal needs for wood and wood products will probably keep Soviet exports4evel,illion cubic meters, unless it would be advantageous politically or economically for thc USSR to increase exports.
Production of industrial wood in thc USSR, according to the original plan, is scheduled to reach anillion cubic meters Planned production47 percent greater3 production, which would meanillion cubic meterslose to5 goal. Labor difficulties and inefficient use of equipment make it unlikely that the goal will be attained.
Probably the most vulnerable component of the Soviet timber Industry is labor. In acme areas, from GO percent toercent of all timber workers are political, criminal, or war prisoners. Living and working conditions ln thc free-labor logging camps, including those operated, by thc Ministry of Timber Industry, have been little better than conditions in the prison camp3.
Roundwood equivalent is derived by conversion of the various end products of wood bock to the raw material (roundwood) used in their manufacture. Foretric ton of newsprint is equivalent toubic meters of roundwood.
Long-range afforestation projects continue to receivo much attention in the European Satellites and Communist China, despite what appears tourtailment of such projects in the USSR.
Development of natural cork in the USSR and Communist China and synthetic cork ln the European Satellites indicates an effort by tho Soviet Bloc to become as nearly self-sufficient as possible inighly strategic commodity. The decline of Soviet cork purchases in the Mediterranean aroaeflection of the development of internal production of cork or an indication that reBorvos of cork aro considered sufficient,
I. Introduction.
The timbor induatry of the Soviet Bloc was particularly hard hit by World War II. Damage from military operations, wartime overcutting, and general disregard of forest managencnt resulted in widespread forest devastation, logging installations and wood-processing facilities in the areas of actual military operations were largely destroyed.
Large quantities of timber were nerded for reconstruction after the war, and intensive efforts were made to meet the deoands. The estimated total timber production of tho Dloc rosero-World War II level of about mIO million cubic metersillion cubic meters6 toillion cubic meters in. Output of fuelwood declined after thc war from an estimated pre-World War II levelillion'-err. toubic attars in. :n production reflected the increased use of more efficient fuels and need for diversion of increased supplies of wood to nonfuel use.
Industrial wood output in the Soviet Bloc increasedre-World War II levelillion cubic meterslllion cubic meters 3 output of industrial wood "as achieved ln some areas by continued overcuttlng of forost reserves. This uas particularly true in socio of tbe European Satellites and in some parts of European USSR. In other areas, forests that had been previously inaccessible were opened up for exploitation.
Throughout the Soviet Bloc, attempts are being rade toigh level of forest utilisation with tho greatest possible cut and thc least possible waste. Deforested arouo are being replanted, and afforestation is being pushed in the European Satellites and China. Greater efficiency in processing will be stressed in order to increase supplies of finished products.
Since potentialities in each of the Soviet Bloc areas differ, the USSR, the European Satellites, and Connrunist China will be considered separately in this oenorandun.
II. USSR.
Inn line with other ministerial changes, the Ministry of the Timber Industry and the Ministry of the Paper and Wood
Processing Industry were merged to form the Ministry of the Timber and Paper Industry, which was responsible for the felling end transport of roundwood from the forests and the fabrication of wood products.
In4 the Ministry of the Timber and Paper Industry was separated into the Ministry of the Timber Industry and the Ministry of the Paper and Wood Processing Industry.
Although the primary consideration for the combination of timber and paper and other ministries appears to haveove by Stalin's heirs to strengthen their control over the USSR, the consolidation waa not illogical. Timber and paper aro closely linked, since the timber industry is the source of supply of the major raw material used by the paper industry. In fact, the two have been Joined andumber of tines since their creation, having been separatedoinednd separated again
In3 month* after the combination inhe Ministry of the Timber and Paper Industry was again split. . Orlcv resumed the post of Minister of the Tiabt. Industry. Fedor Dmitrlyevlch Varaltsin became Chief of the Ministry of the Paper and Wood Processing Industry. There is littlo in Varaksin'a background, except long serviceeputy Minister of the Ministry of the Timber Industry, to suggest why he was selected for hie present position.
Although tho final outcome Is still not clear, the possibilityhakeup in the high cotmnnd of tho Ministry of Lhe Timber Industry
be considered,igh-level change would probably affect the production of the ministry. How G. H. Orlov, Minister of the Timber Industry, has managed to remain in his post so long is difficult to explain. His ministry has been severely criticized in press nnd radio year after year for failure to fulfill its plans and for failure to provide the nation with noodod raw materials. Orlov has personally been the target for much criticism.
The consolidation in3 provided an ideal opportunity to oust Orlov; not only did he keep his position, however, but in3 he received his second Order of Lenin, the nation's highest award. It waa speculated that Orlovember of the Beriya faction, since he had cone up from the former Orlov nonetheless remained after Beriya's execution and is still Minister of the Timber Industry after the separation in4 of timber and paper.
B. Production.
he USSR was responsible for aboutercent of the total timber production of the Soviet Bloc, anillion cubicompared to an estimated Bloc totalillion cubic meters. The USSR accounted for aboutercent of thc total Bloc industrial wood output and for aboutercent of total Bloo fuelwood output The USSR (presentith its vast forest reserves will continue to be thc major Bloc producer and -in thc long run may well become the major source of raw material for tho woodworking industries of the rest of the Bloc.
Strenuous efforts have raised production of industrial wood in the USSR fromillion cubic meterso anillion cubic meters Production is estimated to have increased4
Orlov was awarded his first Order of Lenin, JOor Mb work as Chief of tha Soviet Chier Directorate of Industry(Glavproaistroy) of MCVD.
See Appendix A, Methodology for the derivation of production eatimates.
Soviet present boundaries Include the boundaries8 plus the territories subsequently acquired from Finland, the Baltic States, Germany, Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Rumania.
percent above1 levelillion cubic meters, or an average increase ofercent per year. hole, the timber industry in the UbSR has rcsde great strides since the end of World War II It has nevertheless, actedrake upon the entire Soviet economy by its failure to provide the quantities of wood and wood products required for reconstruction in war-damaged areas and for the expanding civilian and military economies. Lack of wood has hampered both industrial and consumer construction. This lack has made implementation of the recent
d0creeS'ln the,
The original goal of the Fifth Five Yearalled for production of industrial wood amounting to anillion cubic meters By the middle3 it was evidentthe lagging rate of increase in wood production rendered it improbable that this goal could bo attained. Press and radio criticism culminatedecree on "the Liquidation of Lagging in the Timber Industry."Although the decree cay have stimulated increased efforts in the fall
hTkT ? iMUStry UCre StiUeet the goalsfor that calendar
f Tiaber and Paper Industry
It te Planercent.his percentage
figure is, however, deceptive. 1imber and paper
lePW8le1-inistry of the Timber Industry and the Ministry of the Paper and Wood Processing Industry. Since the two ministries were reorganized and
3 productionaperulfillment of the3 timber outputhat is, the actual felling and haulage ofs undoubtedly belowercent, probably in thes. ihiseasonaole assumption im view of the criticism of the timber Industry3 and the underfulfillment of3 plan for transport of commercial (industrial)
* Footnote references in arable nur.erals are to sources listed In Appendix B.
The processing capacity and operation of woodworking plants of thel"dustrif do not appear to have been so much the cause of the difficulty as uas the removal of the roundwood from the forest. 3 report on plan fulfillment emphasizes that the fundamental difficulty is getting the timber felled and out of the forest.
ross plan basis, the high-value paper production (for vhich3 plan was exceeded) LJ would tend to offset somewhat the low timber production. hows the gross plan production fulfillment for the. and indicates how this situation may have come
Table 1
Fujfiliment of the Gross Production Plan for Timber and Papei by Specified Ministries in the3
Percent,
Timber
Paper and Wood
Timber and
In4 the short-lived Ministry of the Timber and Paper Industry was again resolved into the Ministry of the Timber Industry and the Ministry of the Paper and Wood Processing Industry.
Of the3 Soviet timber production ofillion cubic meters, industrial wood is estimatedillion cubic meters, orercent, and fueluood is estimatedillion cubic meters,ercent. These estimates include output of large state producers, and local gathering by settlements and individuals.*
The Ministry of the Timber and Paper Industry was responsible (based on information available for previous years) forercent toercent of all wood felled and hauled according to state plans, or as much asercent of the3 productionillion cubic meters. The Ministry's failure to meet3 goal brought severe
* Planned timber production figures published in the USSR usually do not include sizable quantities of wood, primarily fuelwood, gathered by cities, settlements, collective farms, and individuals for local and personal use.
reprimands for high production costs, inefficient use of machinery, low productivity por labor unit uhloh resulted in undurfulfillment of consumer goods production, and failure to deliver enough additional goods for sale to the population.
Under fulfillment of logging plans is the resultumber of factors, of which low labor productivity is probably the moat acute. Low labor productivity results ln large part from the miserable living and working conditions which prevail in many of the logging camps of the timber industry. Housing, food, and clothing are inadequate, the pay is low, and the work is difficult and must be carried on in sevore weather. Much of the felling and primary haulage has been done^by slave labor (estimated to be as high asercent toercent in some areas) and by collective farmers drafted for work during slack agricultural seasons. The unattractive working conditions in Uie timber industry have made recruitment difficult, and have led to high labor turnover, thus creating still more inefficiency.
Attempts are being made by the timber industry to remedy these defects. Benefits granted by the Timber Decree to the timber workers are being publicised. Efforts are being made to organise logging along more efficient lines. How effective and widespread these efforts aro is not yet known, but some positive results appear to have come from tho new program in the first quarter Because of growing demand for industrial wood for collective farms, housing, cultural and industrial construction, it is planned by the USSR to increase the output7 percent above that/ The proposed Increase ln productionercent) le about triple the average rate of increase the23 (an average ofercent). If this plan were fulfilled,4 output would beillion cubic meters, close to the original goal of thc Fifth Five Tear Flanillion cubic meters There arc several possible reasonn why4 output is so close5 planned output. One explanation is3 output, aa used in this aemorandum. Is an overcstimation. In that case,4 output (after application ofporcent increase) would be substantially lower. Anotheris that increased domands for wood have forced another unward revision of5 goal. Nonetheless, the planned increase4 appears to be unrealistic unless the timber industry planners are hoping that intensive and more efficient utilisation of manpower and machinery will enable them to boost output to meet the goal. Judging by past performance, it is doubtful whether the4 incroaue will be
arl
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C. Trade.
The timber export potential of the USSR has aroused as much speculation as timber production. European traders are particularly interested because Europe's timber balance up to World War II was closely
nxXrt8 Utvia'
During theBolshevik Russia, busy withwas replaced in the world's timber markets byHth6reituation was somewhat
finance the First Five Year Plan,
tho USSR re-entered the world market. The large-scale selling of the USSR ITableas condemned as dumpingeliberate attempt to upset the market. Western exporting countries were hard hit during the earlythe depression ofs.
years oi
Table 2
Exports of Wood ap4 Wood Products from thg nfiSB Ond the-
Year
CubicF^uivalent
Baltio States b/
States b/
S
includes all wood products, lumber, plywood, pulp, paper'
converted to roundwoodi
Latvia, Lithuania.
-After World War II, denand for industrial wood to meet the need! of reconstruction and industrial expansion, coupled with the necessity
rebuilding the timber industry itself, kept the immediateimber exports of the USSR (Tableo less than one tenth of2 million cubic meters, roundwood equivalent).
Table 3
Exports of Wood and Hood Products from the USSR
Thousand Cubic Meters, Roundwood Equivalent
laar
.
Se
Trade) Methodology.
the early post-World War II period, the USSR was also receiving sizable quantities of wood, lumber, and plywood from Rumania, prefabricated houses from Finland and East Germany, and railroad crossties from East Germany.
Soviet imports of wood and wood products from Finland areigh level, as indioated by trade agreements which list Finnish exports to the USSR5 million cubic meters (estimated roundwood3 S/7 million cubic meters (estimated roundwood equivalent)/
In contrast to continuing imports are the offers of lumber and wood products being made by the USSR in trade negotiations. Denmark, Greece, Italy, and Belgium-Luxembourg, toew, are to receive substantial quantities The USSR has also agreed to ship wood and wood products to France, India, Egypt, and Iran, among others.
See Appendix A, Methodology.
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yutur*Utfwr export policy is tied to political end
ePtainly the USSR -ust export goods to obtain needed imports. Raw and semiprocessed goodsogical export choice
traditional export items of thl'type, and timber !l
especially softwoodis in demand in Western Europe.
rw 0ffera of wood for export were made at the Moscow Economic
- "ichkov> head ofSoviet EtfRT^S- Theprices at thitSe
T0 keepiagorters fron plying rtLlfiTJ&PZt Possiblyesult of these offers, rumors if Soviet plans to "dump" timber were current during the summer
Production difficulties in the timber Industry, conbined with th* Increasing internal demand for wood and wood prc^ucta'^auTe doubt as to"
pro-World Warevel In the near future, unless>reat political
axgC quantities of wood might be offered onrketein exchange for strategic goods or consumer goods in very short supply; for cxamSe
or^hTrIJ *UK Sffi.
or other badly needed goods or machinery. Political and economic nressure
Ln all probability, timber exports from the USSR4 will not be much aboveevel. They will probably amount toillion cubic netors, roundwood equivalent.
canbe put on Finland and other wood-exporting countriestimber exports from the
The increased emphasis on the consumer goods urogram, as outlined in various decrees in the falltresses tho role of'thp Umber and paper Industries in supplying the "ants of the Soviet population.
ThistVitMtrybuildln8 of prefabricated houses and cold storage units
wareho^: ^ p,,
,. ' xiiuual.ries contribute even more dirprtlv
to the consumer goods program with fabrication of furniture!
f lhe consumer goods program which is often
ine ^
I ecrees on food, consumer goods, andj.
S*of ^tractSe SSSSL
materials of good quality. No known estimate of production and
? lt8' 8 doubtful* tenable
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containers and cratinp. isoin
consumption of packaging and military requirementsanother problem which the USSR mustis
E. ince Spin's death in3 and the subsequent reorganize
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Tho "disappearance" of the shelterbelt project has led to speculation that plans for afforestation have been abandonedeu bits of information, however, have appeared sincendicating that some portions of the work arc still going on. It is quite possible that the USSR is now concerned chiefly with the maintenance or existing belts. Complete cessation of all afforestation activity would certainly lead to some reference to disposal of machinery, dosing of forest nurseries, and transfer of personnel.
The immediate economic significance of curtailment of afforestation efforts would be the release of machines such as tractors, olows, end cultivators, and tho release of manhours for use in other fields, primarily agriculture and the timber industry. It can be concluded that with the lack of skilled labor in the timber industry and agriculture machine operators and technicians may be shifted to those sectors.
P. Cork.
Until quite recently, the USSR was believed to be almost wholly dependent upon the Mediterranean area for supplies of cork. Evidence which appeared3 confirms the belief that the USSR has developed internal supplies of cork which will reduce its dependence on sources outside the Bloc. '
The USSR is particularly interested in adequate cork supplies. In wartime, corktrategic commodity because of its many uses for which no completely satisfactory substitutes have been found, such as gaskets, oil-immersion, friction drives, friction clutches, washers, grease retainers, and certain types of insulation. "Attempts by the Soviets8 to substitute cardboard for cork composition gaskets, washers, and seal retainors provedecause the cardboard could not withstand the permeating action of oil.
The Russians have experimented for over a, century, attempting to establish cork oak (Onerous suber) in the Crimea (Economic Region III) and along the Black Sea littoral in the Horth Caucasus (Economic Region IVJ and Transcaucasus (Economicut in spite of all efforts, plantings have been insignificant." While the cork oak of the Mediterranean has been the principal comm-rlcal source ofew
" 3 small quantities of Mediterranean oak cork were harvestedmall plantation at Khosta on the Black
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other species have layers of cork cells which are thick enough for commercial exploitation. One of these, the "Amur Velvet Tree" (phelloden-Slron smurense) is found in the Soviet .Far East (Economic Region Xll).
Indications have appeared5 that the USSR was attempting commercial exploitation of this source in the Par East. actory was built in Khabarovsk, which was to use local supplies of cork. The first lot of insulating cork slabs were to be shipped from this factory5 to the shipbuilding and refrigeration industries. References to production of cork from the "Amur Velvet Tree" have appeared since the end of World War II, and available reports indicate that fairly large-acale commercial exploitation was in progress by
Attempts are being made to expand the industry and to put itermanent base. References to "extensive research onrganiaation of special Leskhozcs for growing Amur cork trees, und establishment of newndicate expansion. Reference to the care required in the removal of the bark so that the tree will not be injured, and mention of new growth. indicate the desire of the USSR totable, internal source of supply.
The cork supply of the Far East (Economic Region XII) is of importance to the entire USSR. Products are 3ent "to every part of the Soviethe bulk of the Far. East-cork production is used for grinding. The ground corkwood slabs are then used throughout Soviet industry, particularly for insulation purposes.
Total "Joiown shipments of cork from the Mediterranean to the USSR,ons per. mports jumped8 tons. Known direct imports17 tons, and2? tons.
It may be pure coincidence, but as references to Amur cork have increasednown direct Soviet imports of cork from the Mediterranean have decreased. Known direct importsased on preliminary statistics, amountedonsecline6 percent from the peak year Soviet cork imports from Portugal, which has been the main supplier to the USSR,ecline8 tons15 tons2ons
It is possible, however, that direct Soviet cork imports from the MediterraneanA will reachevel, indicating that
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3 WaSst also be considered thatmay have curtailed direct imports in favor of transshipmentsEuropean Satellites and other
Continued decrease of Soviet cork imports may mean thathave reached desired levels, oras has been speculatedthat theas developed internal cork sources which have lessened its vulnerability to Western trade controls.
III. Eurocefln Satellites.
A. Production.
Eastern Europo, which prior to Worldentquantnies of wood to Western Europe in exchange for manufactured goods, has struggled to reach prevar output levels.* War damage to forests, lodging equipment, and processing facilities has hampered attainment of production goals. Excessive reparations and import requirements levied against many of the Satellites by the USdR in the period following World War II, made overcutting necessaryumber of forests. Recent information indicates that some overcutting is still taking place.
has
Intensive exploitation of the forests in the European Satellites, account for an eatlnated li pnreent of total Bloc timber production, continuedteady rate for the. Estimated total timber production rose fromillion cubic metersomillion cubic meters
Industrial wood output in the European Satellites amounted to an estimatedillion cubic meters3 compared to someillion cubic meters Estimated fueluood output remained fairly steady,
iiliCnmt0rs oulPut Snndillion cubic
Preliminary estimatesut total timber production atoillion cubic metersorcentercentndustrial wood output is estimatedoillion cubic meters,
Pre-World War II levelo be roughlyillion cubic meters, present boundaries.
"* See Appendix A, Methodology, for derivation of production estimates in this section.
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7 Oil*
aTwS pSctS.hBS is *
substanl-iaJ decrease in production in ^Iwocd production uiil
andd is diverted to industrialUSe" Satellite foresl
deoletiono USSR- Cnfnnual cuts exceeding annual
areaf 'dn^t^ in exploitation. Reforestation of cutover Se^uate? ConB3unisl 'laias to the contrary, is believed to be
hor?fees oC uoodwood Products have plagued various SatelUte nations since the end of World War II. ^example^st
? fhT& raSroad'crosstles, W/ ana oltnrnnfP7 Wood packaging materialsoarc,e Hungary. Fueluood supplies aaS equate.ttempts are beingndustrial wood supplies by more efficient methods ofless waste in utilization, and use of substitutes.
B. AfforestsL 1
the Satellitea, asraunist China, Apparent curtailment of afforestation
These afVn^Stf SCeaSe hSd litUellite efforts, andrograms, which require investment in laonpower,*inery, and which will furnish little or
C Cork.
ze?hoalova>-ia announced the successful development of nn wT t lhe Czechs clflin - end their dependence
r vTT W*hS effSClS^Hite* frrclear'of cork substitutes in the Satellites
on Iht Wp*w loc t0 reduce dependence on the West for this strategic material.
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Communist
Thc aupply of wood in China is insufficient in terms of the demand, and planned allocation to different uses reoulres careful assessnent by Uie state planning mechanism. Wood substitutes, such as bamboo, have been extensively used, and lower priority uses, such as private housing, have had to do without wood in many cases. Theor wood in Coracunist China continued to increase The major demand was for wood in the construction industry, although demand for mine timbers, railroad and communication uses, and pulp were also of importance.
The present regime in China is making intensive efforts to put all available forest reserves under proper forest management and at the disposal of the country. 3 thereumber of references to Uie progress being made by forest resource survey teams. Survey teams have boon expanded. In Northeast China, the number of forest surveyors rose from0otal ofurvey teams, including an aerial survey unit, are now atn Uieears, major surveys have been undertaken in Uie Changpai -Mountain Range, Uie Great and Small Khingan Mountain Ranges in Northeast China, Uie Pailung River area in South Kansu Province, and ln districts south of the Yangtze Tbo total area of forest land, surveyed9 to the endas to reachilliony Uie ondillion hectares were to have been surveyed for 'afforestation Surveys were primarily concerned with measurement of forest areas and calculation of volume of standing timber. Potential shelterbelt areas were also narked out. References indicate thatntensive surveys will again take place in Uie Khingan Mountain
Wood production statistics for ComBunist China are not reliable, and estimates af production are subjectide range of error. Total timber production3 is estimated toillion cubic meters, ofillion cubic meters are esti-ated to be industrial wood0 million cubic meters are fuelwood."
Industrial wood output2 roseercent1 to an9 million cubic motors, as compared with an7 million cubic meters Industrial wood output3 was
* See Appendix A, Methodology for derivation of these and other production estimates Jn this section.
planned to beercentnd3 estimateillion cubic meters is based on that percentage. Whether thi3 incref.se was accomplished3 is not known, but3 to overfulfillment of production plans indicate that results were close to the goal.
The preliminary estimate4 puts industrial wood output00 million cubic meters. The timber industry4 will probablyizable increase in production? but will still be pressed to meet the requirements for construction as well as for other uses. Increases in industrial wood output will come aboutesult of opening up new forest areas for exploitation and closer utilization of wood supplies.
Aid has been given by Soviet experts in the development ofimber industry, not only in logging, but in wood-processing asogging equipment from the USSR is beginning to be used by the Chinese. 3j/
Because woodaw material, has been scarce, only the most essential items were made of wood. The present emphasis on construction, particularly construction of factories and railroads, has forced the Chinese to increase timber production to meet requirements. It is estimated that as much asercent of all industrial wood, someillion cubic meters, is used in some form of construction. References to timber felling and haulage3 almost invariably mentioned that the wood was to be transported to various construction sitesthe'country. ew references to wood for consumer uses have been made. In Northeast China, peasants were being supplied with timber to build new homes, carts, and farm tools.
Wood is still not plentiful enough, and efforts arc beingconserve supplies by use of substitutes and curtailment. ll match factories in China wore notified byof Light Industry to shorten match sticks bym to aofm in order to savehas been made to
the substitution of jute-reinforced cardboard boxes for wooden packing boxesoney-and lumber-saving/ reating plant for railroad crosstics, the first plant of its kind in Communist China, was completed innd trial operations are scheduled
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B. Afforestation.
Afforestation in Communist China3 appeared to continue without slackening. OO hectares were afforested in the first half2 percent greater area planted than in the first half/ In contrast to the USSR, where references to afforestation dwindled to almost nothing after Stalin's death, China has continued to publicize afforestation projects.
In late summer3 the first mechanizedstation in China was set up in Heilungkiang Province tocompletion of ahelterbelt planting. Technicians will be trainedmathodsto be used experimentally
The immediate economic significance of wood supplies from afforestation projects will be limited to small quantities of fuelwood. fcJTects of shelterbelts oh flood and erosion control will probably not be apparent for atears.
C. Cork.
Paralleling Soviet attempts to become self-sufficient in cork, Conaunist China began efforts to develop internal supplies. Two species
.nd the "Amur Velvet Tree" (phelj^endron amurensir(The latter is also being exploited by the USSR Surveys were made3 in south Shensi and eastern nansu Provinces and along the Min River in Pukien Sixtv tons of oak bark were reported as collected in Shensi snd Kansu andto seaports for export.* Exploitation of oaks in south Anhwej. Province is also reported. Qj
A3 report stated that China's first cork factory was in operation in Kukden producing cork-board for refrigeration units. Cork from the Amur cork tree, found in forest aruas of llortheast China, is used as raw material. The sate report nentions thc fact that China had previously imported all cork.
Ko indication given as to destinati
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BLANK PAGE
KLHOriCU'-GY
1. USSR.
a. Production.
The0 is the "prewar" year commonly referred to in Soviet timber statistics. Industrial wood production for that year is given in various sourcesillion cubicillion cubicillion cubicillion cubic meters 4j/ (by applicationublished percentage increase planned0 in comparison. This last figure has been accepted as0 industrial wood production for the USSR, present boundaries. It ie believed that the lesser3 million cubic meters) does not include production in the territories acquired by the USSR from Poland, Germany, Czechoslovakia, and the Baltic States.
Planned industrial wood production0 was to haveillion cubic However, actual output0 was onlyercentillion cubic meters. Industrial wood production-1 was reported toercent comparedillion cubic meters, representing local production by cities, settlements, and collective farms were added, making1 production closeillion cubic meters.
The severe criticism of the timber industry in press and radio2oupled with the fact that annual gross production plans of the Ministry of the Timber Industry2 and of the Ministry of the Timber and Paper Industry3 were quite low,ndercent, respectively, tends to confirm speculation that rate of increase in production had slowed appreciably. Industrial wood production2 is estimated to haveillion cubicnd using the same rate of increase, to have beenillion cubic meters
Referred to as "timber." The report for the previous year, however, refers to "commercial timber." It has been assumed that thc categorys the same
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Original plans5 calledpercent increase in productionJ/ illion cubic05 planned output of industrial wood would be somewhere in the neighborhoodillion cubic meters. As has been stated in the4 output ia lo be7 percenthich if fulfilled, would4 production closeillion cubic meters. It is interesting to note that thc planned increaseisew tenthsercent less than the increase reportedercent).
The Fifth Five Year-Plan (as didear plans preceding it) calledhift of logging and wood-processing facilities from the depleted forests of the western and central regions of the USSR to the more plentiful timber resources of thc north and east. In addition to labor and equipment difficulties, geographical shifts in production Uf such shifts have actually taken place) have hindered fulfillment of logging plans.
2: Principal source used for theas2 years were roundedubic metersillionrespectively. Data for the89 representselected on the basis of beat available evidence as representing
a continuation of the trend suggested by data .
'Principal sources for there given in. These sources give trade data for the main wood importing and exporting countries outside the Soviet Bloc. Export data for theere derived by totaling imports from the USSR, as reported by the major non-Communist wood importing countries, and by adding to these figures arbitrary quantities representing Soviet exports to minor non-Cooraunist countries and to other countries of the Soviet Bloc.
exports of wood to the USSR: The followingused to convert one measured unit of the listed products toroundwood equivalent:
Prefabricatedquare meter floor spaceubic meter.
ubic meter7 cubic reters.ubic meter5 cubic meter.ubic meter0 cubic meter.
-
Viscoseetric ton0 cubic meters.etric ton5 cubic motors. Paperetric ton0 cubic meters.
Satellites.
Total timber production, industrial wood and fueluood production2 was stated in source %J, For the most part, production statistics for the various European Satellites have been based on official statements of each'of the countries, both actual and planned figures. As indicated in the text of this memorandum, it is believed that fueluood production will decline with the advent of more efficient fuels and the diversion of quantities of wood to industrial purposes, and that demand for industrial wood will remain steady, keeping output at about the present level, or slightly higher. The estimates as given in the text reflect these assumptions.
Chjna.
Because the forests of the Northeast and Inner Mongolian Regions (Manchuria) constitute the largest timber reserves of Communist China, ondarge portion of total industrial wood production will originate there, the basic assumption is made that timber production in these regions represents the major percentage of all Chinese Communist production. It is realized that such an assumption is liable to error, but it is felt that because production data exist for these two regionsthoughnd because data for the rest of Communist China--are almost entirely lacking, that the approach is reasonable.
Based on available references, it was determined1 output in the two specified regions was in thc neighborhoodillion cubic meters. Production goals1 in various regions in terms of percentages of the national total, were as follows
Beg
Inner
Central South
and
If,he Northeast and Inner Mongolian Regions uere to account8 percent of total Communist China production, then total output may have been7 million cubic meters. 12 output (reported asercentould9 million cubic meters,3 output (planned topercent increaseould beillion cubic meters.
Fueluood production (more of an approximation than an estimate)ontinuation of data as stated in.
- ;v. -
APPENDIX B
SOURCES AND- SOURCES
1* Evaluation of Sources.
Production and utilization are CIA estimates which
for the most part are based on official statements of the country
radc are CIA estimates basedountry concerned as published by the Pood"tl 0reanieatSon ofand the US Department
2. Sources.
folfowjne the classification entry and designated "Eval have the following significance;
formation
- Documentary
ompletely reliable
sually reliable
airly reliable
ot usually reliable
ot reliable
annot be judged
- Confirmed by other sources
- Probably true
- Possiblyoubtful
- Probably false
- Cannot be judfied
Evaluations not otherwise dcif. ated are Ihosc-onMt docur.ua; those designated "RR- arc by the author ofeport. Ko
theWithon
Original document.
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