PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES OF PRODUCTION OF TEXTILE FIBERS IN THE SOVIET3
^MATERIAL COHTAUS ITOXJRKATIO.'i
MKANITC OF THE, THE WHICH IN
SC, SECS. HON OlTIWiAFlATlON OF
TO AN UNAUTHORIZED^ERBON JS_
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Office of Research and Reports,
A detailed analysis of the textile industry, including theof textile fibers, is being publishodeparate report
This intelligonco mcraoranduin deals only with the supply and demand of textile fibers in the Soviet Blochole and in each of its major componentsthe USSR, Communist China, and the European Satellites. Although the memorandum does not analyse the relation of the production of textile fibers to the economy of each country concerned, consideration is given to the relationshiptextile fiber production and population, to long-term trends, and to plans and capabilities of Bloc countries to increaseof textile fibers. Inasmuch as crop production plans for all fibers in all of the European Satellites aro not available and are not as important as Chinese and Soviet plans, there is presented for the Europeanection on "Problems of Suoply and Distribution" insteadection on
The data contained In tnis memorandum do not represent measured or weighed quantities; the mar-in of error la estimated to be olus orercent and in some instances nay be more.
- ill -
C. Significance .
V. Eastern European Satellites
of Supply and
Sources and Evaluation of Sources
1. Estimated Production of Specified Textile Tlbers in the
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2. Estimated Production of Textile Fibers in thefl,
3* Estimated Production of Textile Fibers in the
Estimated Production of Textile Fibers in3 15
5* Estimated Production of Textile Fibers ln the European
rasLEcamrf estimates of wmKm, nF textile fibers
IN 'IHE SOVIET BLOC,
Although the production of textilen the Soviet Bloc has been increasingthe estimated productionillion metric tODSWW3 Wlercent2bove prewar3 output fell short of domestic dawyercent. Tho deficit was made.up by importing fromc sources. The largest producer of textile fibers in the Bloc is the USSR, which accounted for aboutercent of total Bloc production Communist China, with its relatively large production of cotton, was second, with nearlyercent of the Bloc total. Ihe remainingercent, produced by the European Satellites, consisted principally of synthotic fibers. The estimated production of specified textile fibers in the Soviet Bloc by pkajor areas3 is shown in Tabletho USSR an expansion program for cotton is being pursued with apparent disregard of cost. Acreage is being expanded ln tho costly Irrigated areas, application of fertilizer is boing increased,rocurement price equivalent toer pound is being paid, which is more than triple3 world price for cotton.
Plans are being executed to increase production of flax, wool, and synthetics, which will enable the USSR to manufacture more consumer goods, build up strategic reserves, and cover theof other Bloc countries. 5 Plan envisions raisingof textile fibers toillion tonsan increase of aboutercent above3 level. Such an increase is believed to be unrealistic. It would be possible under the best of
* The estimates and conclusions contained in this memorandum represent thc best Judgment of the responsible analyst aa
For the purposes of this memorandum, textile fibers will Include cotton, wool, flax, silk, anda Throughout this memorandum tonnages are given in metric tons. tUHHt ollows on p. 2.
Estimated Production of Specified Textile Fibers in the Soviot Bloc* by Kajor3
Thousand Metric Tons
Cotton (Ginned Basis) Wool (Clean Baals) a/ Flax (Scutched Basis) Silk (Raw Basis) Synthetics b/
basis includes additions for waste vhlch aremill consumption.
staple and filament yarns of rayon and other
circumstances to increase production during theears byoercent This rate of increase would5 textile fiber production expectancy of not much moreillion tons.
3 the European Satellites producedons, which amounted to only U$ percent of the total fiber demand of that area. These countries, consideredroup, are self-sufficient in flax, synthetics, ond silk. owever, they imported aboutercent of their cotton andercent of their wool demands from outside sourcesboth Bloc and non-Bloctries.
Because of climatic limitations, the possibility of increasing the production of natural fibers in the European Satellites is
limited. In the long run, it nay be possible for these countries to increase production of syntheticseans of increasing per capita availability and reducing imports of natural fibers, butevelopment will require several years. The emphasis onof textile products in the USSR' and China makes it appear unlikely that increased imports of fibers can be obtained from these countries. The European Satellites can, therefore, be expected to remain dependent on non-Bloc supplies to supplement indigenousof textile fibers.
3 per capita production of textile fibers in Communist Chinailograms was nuch lower than that in other Soviet Bloc countries. Because of trade agreements with Bloc countries, lt was necessary for China to export0 tons of cotton andons of wool in exchange for needed industrial goods. To offset these exports, China imported0 tons of cottonons, of wool from non-Bloc sources. When net imports are considered*3 per capita availabilityilograms, comparedilograms in theilograms in the European Satellites,3 kilograms in the US.
U Chinese plans call for increasing cotton production byons) over3 production. Yields may be increased slightly from year to year by using additionaland insecticides and by paying higher procurement prices as an incentive. Most of the increase in production, however, will have to be achieved by increasing acreage. If acreage is expanded in the less favorable areas, as occurredt is likely that yields will be low and considerable abandonment will ensue. h goal may be attained if there is favorable weather and if the cotton acreage is expanded at thc expense of summer grains; this, however, will compound the food problem. In any case, lt is probable that China will not achieve self-sufficiencyU and will continue to import non-lloc textile fibers.
Considering the Soviet Blochole, if programs forconsumer goods availabilities to the growing populations are carried out, continued dependency on non-Bloc sources of supply for the next several years is to be exoected.
Thc Importance of textile fibers in the Soviet Bloc la indicated by the fact that the production of these fibers has been, and for theears will continue to bo, the limiting factor* in thc production of textile These productsital role in the economy of the Bloc" and in the consumer goods pro grama. Products mado from textile fibers are the most important class of consumer goodsalue standpoint in all Bloc countries. In addition, they are directly essential to military operations and have numerous important industrial uses.
The Soviet Bloc is still dependent on imports of textile fibers from non-Bloc countries to supply minimum military and civilian demands. Thus, the Bloc is faced with the problem of Increasing indigenous production of textile fibers to eliminate dependence on the non-Bloc countries. Tho Bloc would also like to increase the per capita availability of products mado from textile fibers and to build up strategic reserves, which are negligible at present, especially in the European Satellites. Thc problem of substantially increasing production of textile fibersifficult one to solve, particularly with respect to cotton, because of soil and climatic limitations.
II. Soviet Bloc.
There has been considerable Soviet Bloc trade in textile fibers designed primarily to solve the supply problem in the European Satellites. Even though the European Satellites produce only US percent of their total fiber requirements, the per capita availability3ilograms, compared withkilograms in tho USSRilograms in China. As indicated by these data, fiber utilization in each area of the Bloc varlos rather widely. Even though tho USSR has attempted to supplement the supply of thc European Satellites, there has been no attempt by tho USSR to increase per capita availability in China.
Kanpower" "and textile processing machinery are not expected to he limiting input factors, to the extent that textile fibers will be, in the production of textile productsh
Footnote references in arabic numerals are to sources Hated in the Appendix.
Total production of tortile fibers in the Solocntijnted atillion tons, was0 tons)? andercent above prewar levels. The greatest increase occurred in the USSR, which accountedf the increase coopered withercent in Coasuniet China andercent in the European Satellites.
3 cotton acreage in tho Soviot Blochole ia estimated to have remained at about2 level. Owing to relatively more favorable weather in the cotton growing areas of the Bloc, and shifts in acreage to more suitable soils, hovever,3 cotton production increasedons? This lncroaao accounted forercent of the increase in total Bloc fiber production. Tne increase in synthetic production of0 tons? accountedercent of the total increase in Bloc fiber production comparedercent fororcent for flax, andercent for silk.
The production of textile fibers in the Soviet Bloc has increasedaster rate than population, which resulted in an increase in per capita production. The textile fiber production per capita is estimatedilograms3 compared kilograms2ilograms in the prewar period. The Bloc, however, was still not self-sufficient in textile fibershen it depended on non-Bloc imports forercent of requirements.
Weather conditions In the cotton growing regions of the USSR3 were more favorable than those prevailingigher yields, coupledlight increase in irrigated cotton acreage, were primarily responsible for the increase in total textile fiber production. The increase in cotton production accounted forercent of the increase in total textilo fiber production3 roduction of textile fibersstimated
illion tons, uasercent2 production and aboutercent above prevar production. Estimated production of textile fibers in the DSSR3 is shown in Table 2.
Estimated Production of Textile Fibers in tho3 2/
Thousand Metric Tons
3 production of cotton (ginned basis) is estimatedons, which is aboutercent above2 production. Because of betterlight increase in irrigated cotton acreage,eduction in nonirrlgated cotton acreage, yields of ginned cottonentners per hectare,or aboutercent Cotton acreage3 is tentatively estimated atillion hectares, which is slightly less than2 acreage. This reduction in acreage probably took place in theielding nonirrlgated areas, the Ukraine in Regions III; the Caucasus in Region IV; and thc Lower Volga in Region VI. Cotton acreage3 wasectares above prewar levels, and production exceeded prowar averages byons.
o The term region ln this memorandum refers to the economicand numbered on CIA(First,
t'SSR: Economic Regions.
Cotton production3 continued to be concentrated in the irrigated regions, Transcaucasus*azakhstan SSR (Regionnd Central Asia* (Region Xb). These regions, which contain about three-fourths of the total cotton acreage,ccounts for more thanercent of the total cotton production.
Cotton production has continued to increase inrelative to total fiber production. Cotton production3 accounted forercent, by weight, of total fiber production compared withercent2 andercent
Wool production3 is estimated atons (cleann increase ofonsercent) over2 production andercent) above8 level. The increase in production3 wasesult of an increaseheep numbers; the increase in clip per sheep was negligible. arge percentage of the sheep in the USSR are of the coarse-wool type, the clip per sheep can be expected to increase slowly from year to year. Wool production accounted forercent of total textile fiber production
3. Other Fibers.
Both the flax acreageillion hectares) and flax productionons) are estimated to have remained about the same3 as Flax production, recovering slowly in the postwar period, is still aboutercent below0 production ofons.
lax production accounted for aboutercent of total textile fiber production in the USSR. The government,procures from growers only about one-half of the harvest because that is about all that can be processed with existing The other half is used by peasants for homespun yarns.
* Central Asia comprises Uzbek SSR, Tadzhik SSR, Turkmen SSR. and Krrgiz SSR.
Synthetic production3 is estimated to have been0 tons, compared0 tons?0 tons Synthetic production accounted for onlyercent of total Soviet textile fiber production
In comparison with other textile fibers the production of silk in the USSR was insignificantepresentingercent of total textile fiber production.
The Fifth Five Yearalled for an estimated Increase of aboutercent in total textile fiber production roduction had increased onlyercent. It is estimated that5 total production of textllo fibers oanby not more than In porcent/ Kstlnatodof textile fibersa shown in Table 3.
Estimated Production of Textile Fibers ln the5 Plan
Thousand Metric Tons
5 Plan figure for silk production is not available^5 CIA estimate for this figure is used in order to arriveigure for the total textile fiber production plan.
The Plan staled that the goals for gross cotton production would .increase byoercent These goals were to bo achieved mainly through increased yields rather thanarge expansion of acreage. Yields wero to bo increased by increasing application of fertilisers, expanding reclamation projects, and introducing bettor crop-rotation practices in the cotton growing areas. JJF
.< , SS^St decreoaincreasing cotton produc-
tion in Usbek SSR and Turkmen SSR for the, and in Tadshik SSR for the. 9/ It is expected that decrees relating to cotton production in the other producing republics will be issued in tho near future. Plans call for increasing production
E2"and for increasing production in Turkmen SSR from
hOO.OOO tons of raw cotton5ons Plans
KrSeSrfna of raw^ Tadzhik SSR5ons
It Is planned that these increases will be brought about by increases in both acreage and yields. Acreage increases aro to bo accomplished by water conservation measures which are designed to increase the areas of irrigated land. Yield increases are tobe attained by continued intensive application of fertilizers and adoption of batter farm management practices.
ercent increase in .hoop numbers0 and an average clip ofilograms per sheep (grease basis). If these increases could be attainedool production would beons (greasehich Is more than double the0
Dlannad Uiat production of flax
fibers would increase U0 toercent, an increase which would result5 productionons. After three years,
! 3 productionons wasons less than0 production, and flax acreage Is estimated to have droppedectare* oeiow that
heof synthetic fiberstoimea0 production ofons. Bysynthetic production had Increased onlyercent
Tho USSR ia especially desirous to increase rapidlyproduct iontextile, fibers. The recent decrees for the expansion of cotton production in thc major producing areas and the government offers of more incentives to cotton growers than to any other farm group are indications of the importance which Soviot leaders attach to increasing textile fiber production. Failure to increase production would mean that the USSR would be forced to reduce the per capita availability, reduce exports to the Eurbpean Satellites, or increase imports.harp decrease in the production of textile fibersan that tho consumer goods program would fail to meet goalsassuming tho current pattern of tradeand even that the government night bo forced to draw on its existing reserves.
3 production of textile fibers in the USSR, if equally distributed over a'population of 2Jli million, would resultross production per capita ofilograms compared withilograms Tho actual per capita availability of textile fibers is less than per capita production because the USSRet exporter of fibers. et per capitaof fibers in the USSRilograms per capita, compared3 kilograms per capita in the
fhe recent decrees for increasing cotton production in Central Asia, Usbek SSR, Turkmen SSR, and Tadhtlk SSR indicate that the USSR is placing great emphasis on expanding cottonin the irrigated areas. This would seem to indicate failure of the program to expand cotton production in tho nonirrlgated, marginal cotton growing regions of the Ukraine and Horth Caucasus which were opened The programesulted in an increase of acreage on marginal lands fromectares9il1'on hectares In spite of thlB substantial acreage increase the program failed to increase significantly cotton production, while it decreased the acreage available for other crops.esult, the nonirrlgated cotton acreage was probably reducednd present plans call, for concentrating cotton growing in tho better adapted irrigated sectors of the country.
The objectives of the cotton goals in Urbek SSR, Turkmen SSR, and Tadihik SSR are believed to be higher than can be attained
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* within thc period indicated." For example) the announced goals in Uzbek SSR call for increasing' tne cotton production levelillion tons (raw basis)4illion tonsttainment of these goals is predicated on anpercent increase In acreagopercent incroase in yields. The goals appear even more optimistic when compared with tho3 estimate ln Uzbek SSRillionillion tons (rawspecially when considering the total sown area involved as related to water needs and soil conditions. Questionable also is the ability to extend irrigated acreageectaresthe tine limits of the decree. Furthermore, Uzbek SSR has failed to achieve announced goals for three successive years
The timing of the announcements in Uzbek SSR, Turkmen SSR, and Tadzhik SSR is significant for two reasons i t Indicates changes in the Fifth Five Year Plan for increasingt ispriority program designed to Increase rapidly cotton production in order to meet the future demands of theile industry in the USSR and European Satellites.
Although new goals have not been announced for the entire country, it is believed that even the goals of the Fifth Five Year Plan cannot be attained. While it is believed that production can be increased somewhat in the irrigated areas, progress in expanding this acreage will be slow as indicated by experience during theears. eriodears, yields can be 'increased only slightly by use of improved varieties, morebetter crop rotations, and improved methods of cultivation. It is estimated, therefore,5 cotton production will beillion tons (ginnedompared with the planned goal ofillion tons. (See
A comparison of the announced goals with US production records of the irrigated areas or California shows thatillion0 hectares) the production of cotton reached anounds per acre of ginned cottonnd long-range estimates made for the Council of Economic Advisorsrobable yieldounds per acre 3 estimate for Uzbekillionillion tons (raw basis) on an area ofectares shows an estimated yieldounds per aero ginned; the yield increase1 is planned to reachounds per acre ginned. ** P. 8, above.
That the USSR is expanding cotton acreage in tha costly irrigated areas, increasing tho application of fertilisers, and paying producers abouter pound (ginnedndicates that tho USSR is obsessed with the idea of becoming self-sufficiont regardless of cost. Actually the USSR could purchase cotton on the world market for less than ono-third of the domestic production cost, (There isurplus of cotton in tho US and in several other non-Bloc countries,) Furthermore, about one-third of tho mineral fertilizer in the USSR is utilized for cotton growing. This dependence on mineral fertilizer increases the vulnerability of the Soviet cotton supply in case of war, when nitrogen would be diverted from fertilizers to munitions.
Sven though the USSRelatively low per ci^lte availability of textile fibers,ons (ginned basis) of cotton were shipped to the European Satellites. Although some of this cotton was manufactured into textiles and sent back to the USSR, the bulk vas utilized to take care of domestic needs in those countries and to reduce their dependence on imports from non-Soviet Bloc countries. esult, thc USSR3er capita availability of cotton ofomparedilograms inilo grama in Swoden,kilograms in Turkey, lii/
ool production in the USSR is estimated at
ons, which wasercent2 production.lanool production ofonshich is more than double0 level. (See Table The Plan also callspcrcont increase05 in shoep numbers, which Is considered unrealistic. The capacity of ranges and pastures as well as roughage resources is Insufficient to maintain planned increases in all classes of livestock st the same time. Increasing sheep numbers at the planned rate wouldownward revision of5 numbers planned for all other classes of livestock except possibly swine.
S cotton price ofer pound. On the othor hand, the Soviet procurement prico on wheat la about SO.er bushel compared to3 US wheat price ofer bushel. <n> P. 8, above.
Thc planned average clipilograms per sheephich is aboutercent above2 clip, will beto attainearsarge percentage of the sheep in the USSR are of the coarse-wool type. The average clip per sheep nay be increased by better breeding, nutrition, andpractices, but accomplishment of this planned increase willonger period than the timexample, the clip per sheep3 was practically the same asn fact, clip per sheep in the USSR is still below the prewar level despite offorts to increase wool production in the postwar period:
In spite of efforts to become self-sufficient in wool supplies during tbe postwar period, the USSR had to Import0 (clean basis) to take care of domestic demands Of the Imports, which accounted for aboutercent of domestic demands,ons were Imported from Communist China and thefrom non-Soviet Bloo countries. In addition to the abovethe USSR late In3rade agreement with Argentina for the purchase of0 tons (clean basis) of wool. Ho siaeable quantities had been shipped by16/
Although the Fifth Five Tear Plan called for an Increase in flax productionons0 toons3 production is estimated atons. This decrease in production30 primarily resultededuction in acreage ofoc tares.
A flax decree was published in4 which outlinod measures for increasing flax growing and providing sere material incentives to induce collective farms and farmers to increase the output of flax and hemp. The increase in production is to be accomplished by expansion of sown areas, by an increase in yields, and by an improvement in the quality of output. The5 productionons of flax will bethan adequate to take care of mill requirements, even though it willons short of5 Plan. (See Table
er capita basis,3 production of flax in the USSR wasilograms. The actual quantity processed and available for utilization, however, wasilograms per capita,
* 8, above.
which waa larger than per capita availability' in any other Soviet Bloc country.
Tho per capita availability of synthetic fibers, baaed3 production and population, wasilograms in tho USSR, compared .withkilograms in Eastilograms in Czechoslovakia, and iu2 kilograms in the US* Although the Fifth Fivo Tear-Plan indicated that production of synthetic fibers5 wouldimes thathe government has failed to increase materially production to date because of competing demands made by higher priority Industries for chemicals and investment capital. It ia estimated that synthetic production$ will be0 tons, an amount *hich la leas than ono-half the planned production*
17. Coreaunlst China.
3 production of textile fibers in Communist China, estimatedons, wasercent above the productionons2 and aboutercont above the production ofons In prewar, years. The increase in cotton production, which accounted for all of the3 fiber production increase excepton Increase In silk,esult of an increase in thc harvested acreage, reported to nave beenT/3 production of wool and flax isto have renvtuied at about2 lovel. Estimated production of textile fibers In Communist China,3 ia shown in
2 the Chinese Communist government compelledto plant cotton in fields unsuitable for the crop. In addition unfavorable weather conditions prevailed during the year.onsiderable acreage was abandoned at harvest time* owever, weather conditions in the more important cotton producing areas were more favorable than Although less acreage was planted to cottonreater percentage of tho
a ollows on
Estimated Production of Toxtilo Fibers in Communist China3
Thousand Motrio Tons
acreage was harvested, vhich resulted in larger production. ons estimated to have boon harvested3 wasercent aboveons harvested
Cotton production has increased in importance relative to total fiber production since the prewar period. otton production accounted for aboutercent of total fiber production, about theercentagend forercent in the prewar period. Chinese Communist production3 accounted for about hi percent of the total production of cotton in the Soviet Bloc.
l-tool production3 is estimated to have been0 tons (cleanhich is the same2 production but is aboutercent below tho prewar productiononn. It Is ostLmated that both sheep numbers and clip per sheep3 Increased only slightly2 totals. Wool production accounted for onlyercent of total Chinese Communist textilo fiber production3 and aboutercent of the total soviet Bloc wool production.
3- Other Fibers.
Flax production3 is estimated to have beenons, or at the same level as? and in the prewar period. Flax is not an important fiber in Communist China, representingercent of the total Chinese textile fiber production3 ond onlyercent of total Soviet Bloc flax production.
The3 silk productionons isercent above2 productionons but onlyercent of the prewar production0 tons. Even3 silkrepresented lessercent of total Chinese textile fiber production, it accounted forercent of the total Bloc silk production. Synthetic fiber production is negligible In China.
Cotton is tho only textile fiber for which plans have been announced. Based on announcements of plans to date it appears that Communist China plans to increase cotton production4oercent above3 productionons (ginned basis). This increase is to be accomplished by an average increase in yields ofilogram per hectare and an acreage increase ofectares. Announcements have also called for use of additional fertilisers and insecticides. As an incentive toward increased production, it was announced prior to the planting season that4 price of cotton in terms of grain would be higher than
The largest planned increases4 are to take place in North China, the largest Chinese cotton growing area, which accounts forercent of the total production of the country. This area is to increase production by aboutercent. Other planned increases are as follows: ercent;ercent; and East China^ percent.
er capita basis the production of textile fibers36 kilograms compared5 kilograms This
represents an Increase ofercent? and an increase of about ho percent over prewar levels.*
Even though the Chinese Comunists attempted to increase fiber production during thc postwar period, they imported0 tons of cottonon3 of wool from non-Soviet Bloc sources to take care of domestic demands, both civilian and military, and trade agreement commitments. Because of trade agreements with Bloc countries, China exported0 tons of cotton andons of wool3 in exchange for badly needed industrial goods. Even though China imports substantial quantities of textile fibers, the per capita availability is the lowest in the Bloc. Talcing into account net imports, the per capita availability of fibers in China3 was only5 kilograms, comparedin Ihc USSR3 kilograms in tho United States.
Since cotton accounts for aboutercent of totalin Conraunist China and recent plans are focused oncotton production, it is likely that increases inwill account for most of the gain3 made in textileduring theears. U Chineseforpercentons) over theofons. The plan also calls forincrease by- hectares. If acreage is expandedpoorer soil areas as happenedt is probable thatbe low and that there will be considerable abandonment. indications, however, that acreage is being expanded atof summer grains. While this would insure better yields-7ood pro
Tne plan also calLs for an increase in average yields ofilogram per hectare which is to be achieved by usingfertilizers and insecticides. As an incentive to theuse of fertilizers andigher procurement pricej has been announced, if the acreage expansion takes place at the expense of grains and if there is favorable weatherh, Uic planned increase in yields may be accomplished, in which
3 As, CTA estimates the population of China to beillion. IC the populationillion, indicated in the recent census, is used,3 per capita production of textile fibers would have been6 kilograms, per
case China will bo self-sufficient at the low per capita availability level that now exists* Even if the planned increase4 is realized, however, China nay continue to import non-Soviet Bloc fibers in exchange for rice, and nay even export sono cotton to the European Satellites if desirable tradean he made. Such exchanges arc expected to be relatively small.
ong-run viewpoint the possibility of significantly increasing cotton production is not good. Thero is no suitable cotton land available that is not planter* to other crops. could be expanded at the expense of grain acreage, but this will probably not be attemptedarge scale because of the food pro bier,. Some increased production can be effected by use ofseed, additional fertiliser, and insecticides, stimulated by increased procurement prices. Tear-to-year increases,esult of those factors, are expected, however, to bo relatively modest.
V. ropcan Satellites.
3 production of textile fibers In tho European Satellites, estimatedons, wasercent above tho productionons2 and aboutercent above the productionons in prewar years. Tho increase in synthetic productionons2 accounted for about U3 percent of tho total fiber production increase. Small gains in cotton, wool, and flax production accounted for the remainder of the increase, while silk production remained at2 level. Estimated production of textile fibers in the European Satellites, in prewar years ond?3 is shown in
The estimated per capita production of textile fibers waslograma Domestic production accounted for only aboutercent of the total fiber demand of
In viow of the more favorable weather*conditionsotton production in the European Satellites is estimated at0 toim, orercent above2 level.
* Tablpfollows on
Estimated Production of Textile Fibers in the European3
Thousand Metric Tons
produced aboutercentons) of the cotton in the European Satellites;00nd0 tons). 3 cotton accounted for onlyercent of total fiber production in the European Satellites and onlyercent of total Soviet Bloc cotton production.. Domestic production satisfieder-cent of the demand for cotton fibers in the European Satellites
Even though synthetics compete with high-priority industries for inputs, production of synthetics in the European Satellites3 ia estimated to haveons,ercent aboveon3 produced production accounted for aboutercent of total textile fiber production in the European Satellites andercent of the total Soviet Bloc synthetic production.
Production of synthetics is concentrated in EastCzechoslovakia, and Poland, where aboutercent of the synthetic fiber output of the European Satellites is produced, In
ast Gemany producedercent of tho synthetic fiber output of the European Satellites and U9 percent of the total Soviet Bloc output.
3. Other Fibers.
Flax production3 is estimated to have been0 tons,ercent above? level butercent below late prewar lovels. lax ropresonted 2I4 percent of total fiber production in the European Satellites andorcent of total flax production in tne Soviet Bloc.
Primarily because of an increase in sheep numbers,3 wool production, estimated to have been0 tons,ercent2ercent above prewar levels. ool accounted for aboutorcent of the textile fiber production in the European Satellites and aboutercent of the woolin the Sovietilk production is negligible in the European Satellites.
B. Problems of Supply and Distribution.
Although3 production of textile fibers in theSatellites satisfied only about u5 percent of total fiber demands, production of synthetics, flax, and silk was adequate to take care of practically all tho domestic demands for these fibers. Cotton and wool production, however, wasercent of cotton sndercent of wool* demands had to be imported. ons of cotton vere imported fron the0 tons from Cosnunist China,ons froa non-Soviet Bloc sources. Because of climatic limitations, the possibilities for substantially increasing domestic production of cotton are limited. In view of the recent consumer goods program in the USSR, the Europoan Satellites aro not likely to obtain increased supplies from this source. Moreover, since Communist Chinaet importer of cotton, greater shipments of Chinese cotton to the European Satellites cannot be anticipated. Thus lt appears that the European Satellites will continue to be dependent onc cotton sources for sons time to cone. In addition to cotton, the Europeanimported wool from both Soviet Bloc and non-Bloc sources.
S Total mill consunction3 is estimated atons,waste. 2h/
_Q course" in the European Satellites calls for in-
con^availability of textile products and otherile products are to be made available
production or imports to provide these textile fiber supplies. Tne European Satellites also need more fibers than were available
l?r WridnE stocks'indications
that wrking stocks have droppsd below minimum levels in someand forced partial idleness of mills.
fha _ ita basis the production of textile fibers in
UteSilo^s capita net imports are taken into
consideration, however, the per capita availability of fibers in th*
toUt 7'2ilograms in the USSRilograms in China.
European Satellites produce onlyercent
cotton production. Despite these efforts, cotton production was increased by onlyons0nlLZt
ercentd0aestic deffiands' Sm^Ll increases may beotton production from year to year, but there are
Satellites with cto
suitable for expanding cotton production on an economicon imports is, therefore, likely to face thefor many years in the
The production of wool3 in the European Satellites
0 level- ^all* Creasing shoop numbers and
f increasing the indigenous supoly^vkatellite8 iE through theratCexPansion c" this industry will, however,
depend on the priority that it gets relative to other industries
vhat compete with it for chemicals and processing oouipment.
3hat the European Satellites will be dependent upon imports for theoears, with anyool imports probably coming from non-Soviet
. jKJyv&^taBi. of- scr>sr?
'-Evaluation of Sources.
largely on infoof. tex-
* Date, and" info tion co.ntalnM< In' tile" fibers and on the in these basic
;Five Tear Plan, on
and>on numerous FBIS
and reports of thetate. eports froa the Consulate, reports.
Evaluations, following the'classification entry and designatedave the following significance;
annot be judged
onfirmed by otherrobablyossibly true
it be judged
Evaluations not otherwise' 'designated are_ those appearingocument; those -di^Rnalednri^thO.-author of with
top evaluation on tho.citedOriginal document.