Office of the Chief, Economic Eeeearch Office or RaBflBrch and Reports
Current Support Memorandum
SUBJECT: Construction Progress Indicateo Soviet Xuybyohov
Hydroelectric Project will not be Completed on Schedule*
The Kuybyshev project, planr.ed to be the largest in thein term? of rated generating capacity, will, according to Soviet claims, generateillion Kilowatt houra$ percent of3mprove shipping by redoing the level of the Volga, andillion acres of arid land. The project may be divided into aeveral construction sectors such asi ooncrete spillway dam, earthen dams, powerhouse, navigable canalciloaetershipping locks, the erectionilometers of tiOO-kilovoltilosatersilovolt transmission lineo, and the installation ofarge turbo-generator units, with auxiliary equipment. Little has been mentioned concerning the planned Irrigation canals and it is believed that they will be constructedater date, possibly after the completion of the main
One of the methods of evaluating the progrees of construction is to conpare the amount of earthwork and concreting accomplished with tha total volume estimated to be required for completion of the cajor Out of the estimatedillion cubic meters of earthworkprobably excavation plue fill) aboutillion cubic cetera had been reported completed by the end/ olume ofillion cubic meters waa planned. Ho-ever, in, after four years of construction, it wao claimedotalillion cubic meters of earth had been dug and placed into Taxioua/ Although the above quoted statement ia ambiguous, most previous figures on earthwork have included both excavation and fill (aa in the plannd Wie above figure haa been eo interpreted. If this ia true, thenillion outotal ofillion cubic meters planned" had been accomplished in more than seven months of this year. Thus after four years of construction, with little more than one yoar remaining before tho planned completion date, approximately one-third of the estimated required volume of earthwork had been accomplished. Although percentage of total planned oartfawork completed cannot be relleo upon aa an indexefinite stage, of construction, due to incomplete and occasionally inconsistentand possible revision of plana, it seems certain that the schedule for earthwork has not been met.
Concreting, also, seems to be lagging behind schedule. able-way, to be used for transporting cement, concrete, and other construction materials from both river banks to the construction sites, was planned tc go into operation in Octoberbut was not completed untilU, six months later.here have been aeveral criticisms in the Soviet presa concerning the unsatisfactory operation of the concrete mixing plants and the quality of the concrete. 6/ 3lan was only half fulfilled, jj and that for the firat quarterk was eleo reportedly far from fulfilled. 8/ The results of an analysis of fragmentary Information concerning concreting3U are presented In Table 1. This represents "an estimate of the current aituatlon with respect to three key sectors of construction.
progress OF COKCRETIIJG UUCA TTOTaLLATZOKS AT KHyBYSKEVPROJECT
Sector and Sate Concreting Started
Volume of ConcreteUion Cubic Wetcre
Estimated Total Volume Eegree of Required for Coaplotlo Completion atb*
Spillway Dam Powerhouse lower Lodes
Predicated on fulfillment of1 plan, (see text) Totalillion cubic meters required for entire project, of which atill be accounted for by the three sectors.
The degree of completion of the various sectors by the ereij as given inas predicated on the fulfillment ofJ, plan, art therefore probably represents maximum possible attainments, since3 and firstlans were not fulfilled. Inu it was reportedotal7 million cubic meters of concrete had been placed ainco concreting had This would mean that, according to Tablebout one million cubic meters had been placed during nearly oignt monthaa,lan figure ofillion cubic uetcre for the ontire year. Construction of the canal and locks should be completedohipping will not be interrupted during5 navigation seasonork can proceed on the earthen It was originally planned that the concreting of the powerhouse alao be completed by the enca in order to permit construction of the earth dan and filling of the reservoir by the eprlng An engineer engaged in olanning the projoct emphasisedublic lecture inin1 that the biggest Job will be to complete the concreting of tho powerhouse onhe time schedule, he said,-requires workcope andver before attempted in any country.
Thegenvrating equipment consists ofilowatt generating units. Bach unit is composedydroturblne (waterwheel)enerator which, In.thls oase, are manufactured at separate Leningrad plants, and all muet evontually be assembled ln tho powerhouse. 7cr the scheduled full capacity operation, all of theae unite would have to be Installed by the end
The Leningrad Uetal Works (LIE) began planning details off the JO turbines innd designing work "as neaxing completion in Production cf the first turbine was reported inuj and by tne end of June three had been23/ It "as planned to complete seven of thea by the endi. 2U/ Generators are being aanufactured at the Blektroaila plant In Leningrad, the first being ooapletod inh, and the fourth in August.It was claimedotal of six generators vill bo manufactured by the and
Actual installation of the turbines "as planned to start during the second half However, that will depend upon the prograaa of concreting. Concrete work for ths first six units was reported to have atarted inndicating that six units will probably bo installed for the first Inh, two turbi nee were reported to be at tha construction site but installation had not yet and tasting generating units of thia size roquirea auch technical skillonelderablo period of tine. It la not unusual, even in the US, for defective parta to become evident during Installation,or testing, and often large components must be transported back to the factory for correction, causing considerable delay. Even If installation began as early asU, the installation of ten unite by the end5 would require ideal olrcuaatancea throughout,ore realistic eetlxata la alx out of the plannednite, in that time. Probably the installation of allnite vill not be completed until some time6
Construction ofilometer Ksybyehev to Moscow liOO-kilovolt transmission line represents an ambitious undertaking. Its voltage and length are slightly greater than the Swedish Harapranget-Hallsberg line completed East German engineers have contributed greatly toward rosearch on this project6 and 6oae of the unique electrical equipment may bs manufactured In East German planta. eman engineer who had worked with Soviet engineers up1 tlalneu that the production of liOO-kilovolt transformers by the Russians wao thsn impossible and that consideration was being given to purchasing such equipmentnother source thought that tha Russians would be able to copy the Swedish aOO-kiiovolt equipment designsseian manufacture. n any event, the Soviets claimedOO-kilovolt transformer was built at ths Leningrad Elecktroapparat plant innd that serial production would begin shortly. U, ineulatora, circuit breakers, synchroMne condensers and cable were reported being produced in Soviet plants for the transaiasion/ Steel towers for the double-circuit line are now being eraoted andh about half of the required number of towers had been/ the production and erection of approximatelyCO kilometers of rteeT-alunlnuo cable may be one of the limiting factors in putting the line Into operation on schedulo.
One of the last phasaa will ba the filling of the reservoir, which must be completed before the generating units can begin full operation. In turn, the filling of tbe reservoir wist await the conflation of work on tha sarth dam, which cannot ba ooepleted until after5 aprlng floodsherefore, filling tha reeervolr may not conaer.ee until late sunaer or Tha reeervolr, known aa "Xuybyshovilllong, with an average width ofiloeetors end will cover an areaquare klloseters. 3J/ Its oapaolty when full will be5 cubic klloaetera. Although the average river flow at Kuybyohov If repc:
to be about ZLO cubic kilometers per,ercentubic kilometers of this flow occuro curing the months of April, Uay andhe average monthly flow during the remaining nine months iaubio kilooetere. Since it is not likely that the filling operation vill be started until lata Burner or autuant would take from two to three months to fill the reservoir provided the flow was completely cut off at Kuybyshev. However, it will be necessary toarge proportion of the water to flow past the dam site elnce the Soviets have claimed that river navigation will not be interrupted duringhis proportion cannot be reasonably estimated, and due to other unknown factors, it can only be guessed that the reservoir can be filled In three to six montha with the possibility that the operation will not be entirely completed until the early part
All of ths above nentloned factors considered, it appears that operation at full capacity by the end5 is very unlikely considering the present statua of tha earthwork, concretingj production of generating equipment, erecting the Xuybyahev-ttoecow tranaaieoion line, and the aany difficult taske which lie ahead. Five yeareery short period af time for auch aceomplishmente, especially when construction of several other major hydroelectric atatione la simultaneously in progress. It is conceivable that partial capacity with six to ten units in operation could be attained by the end of
Soviet Hows,ulidrotakhr.ichoskoya Stroltel'atvo, Jan $lt
(Plannedillion cubic meters of earthwrks coupilllon cubic metersl)
illion cubic cetera of earthwork completed
lavdajan $ls Pravda,pr $li Cited" in HIA,
FBB Unpublished, Moscow, Taas In Russian to Europe,| (for official uss only)
8. Pravda,ited in
9- Iiveatiya,ovited in
10. Trud,ul e*
12. Tecaemyaya Moskva, an S3 Cited in
& Nov Ibid U.
iCTaatlya,ecsveatlys, 2lt Novited in
, (for official uaa only)
Unpublished, Leningrad Oblaat Regional Service ir. Ruselon,
ly May 5U, U, (for official uaa only)
25> Zaryaen Sa
. FBg Economic Iten>Voeccw, Tass,ug W, U, (for official use only)
. BIS Unpubliahed, Moaoo* Hoc* Service,ab 5u, V, (for offioial uae only)
fVavda,an 5ii Cited in
26. Pravda,ieited 'ir
29- Ibid ii.
3h. BIS Unpubllehed,k,for offioial uae only)
35- IrveetlyaoKO "GeoKTafiChaakOEO Obshcheetva
iSevra of Ali-vnion ueogTayr-lcal Society), (for official uae only)