NIE S No.
Probable Consequences of Attack on Binh Xuyen by Government Forces
1. lou asked ttm to expand on the stateeient In my attached memo ofpril:oubt that full scale civil war would follow the expulsion of the Binh Xuyen from Saigon-Cholon".
gree that the Binh Xuyen, if
and east of the city, in this
area the Viet Hinh war* able to maintain themselves for many years, and it is argued that the Binh Xuyen could do likewise.
the circumstances now are different in some The Viet Hinh were able toarge part of thethat they were nationalistsegime which if notwas by no meana Independent. Tha Binh Xuyen may find it moraassume this role, and may therefore be expected to enjoy lessin the countryside.
the seme token, the FAVN as an independent nationalconsiderably more willing to undertake action against theand other dissident sect forces than it was against theearlier years. The FAVX's military capabilities are probablythan those of the Binh Xuyen and Boa Hao and their relativecan be expected to increase under the TRIM program, especially asof French support begins to be felt by the soots.
real danger posed by the sects, it seems to me, la notscale civil war, but of banditry and terrorism. Here we comeour old theme, the need for en effective, competent and pervasivethat can protect loyal elements of the population from reprisal.
my opinion the French are for less concerned about theof "civil War" than they are about loss of French lives andacts of terrorism and sabotage, and the political storms thatraised internationally and in France itself if disorders were toaction by French troops. These responsibilities are largeadequate to support the French determination to reduce to theopportunities for outbreaks.
rom Dedass PerSS.Original document.