PROPOSAL FOR NIE ON "NEW COURSE IN SOVIET POLICY"

Created: 2/17/1956

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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INTELLIGENCE AGENCY

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HKMCRANDCM FOR: Mr, Allan Evona (OTR)

Colonel H, J, Lonloy,S1)

Captain B, E, Ifigfln, OSI (ONI)

Colcrjel, Sawyer, usaf

Colonel Charles H, Dnyhuff,SA Proposal for NIE on "Nw Course In Soviet Policy"

view of the cany devolorner.tf In Soviet policy sincewroto nn NIE on the subject, tho Board ofstlnativo look ot theould bo Uehort national estimate pullingdomestic and foroign policy novel ojxwnts aa tho nowand ocononlc offwnsivo in Asia, tho new Flvo Year20th Party Congross, the Bulgnr.in letters,ndthe USSR scans to ba hocdod. Cur success lost year, suggostelnilrj brief trcntnunt would

reasons for suggestingupor nt this time ore I

prosont wo havo no current estimator regardingof highly significant Soviettho new "trade ond aid" offensive. only current intelligence coverage Ixa boonthis.

bri'if eotiriiito of tho typo suggested would beprolir.lnary to tho big Sovlotubstitute fcr on NIE of this type. thinking about current trends intor-Is to got hurled in tho annuel Sovietincludes oil sorts of other notorial. Moreover,

APPROVED FOR RELEASE DATE: 7

n brief KD5 ofypeoro flexible vehicle for tho typo of general iixtion vo hnve in mind. Tho fact that the big Soviet piperlvo your projection uiakos it difficult to dovoto iiuch attention In it to short term trends. Wo always havo to argue the question of whether nny trendn posited will last the full five yours.

e. Wo fool in nny enso that from tho standpoint of impact on tho reader, cs well as eriso ofwo should not rely too ouch or. ocverlngIn depth In cne big annual Soviot Wo can cover tho field better if wo do noro ln the way of aopnrato brief cstlao.tcs or. key aspects of tho Soviot probleo aa tho occraion Thoso car. of courso be aumarized oa appropriato in tho big estimte.

If tho above suggestion is approved, wo propose initiating such an NE nronptly, cn the basis of oral contributions, for ccn-pletion no latir than the end of April. This nohodulo will permit us to sot this cuti*Kito out of tho way bpforo wo got fully engaged in drafting the big Soviet HIE.

In order topecial reeling, 'Ant you or your representative discuss this proposal with Mr. font, in his offlee, Jmediatoly eftur tho IAC mating Tuesday,ebruary.

PAUL A. BCSfflL

De-uty Assistant Hirector

National Eot-inatca

Distribution

Dear Alleni

In view of tha intense interest at present in thedconomlc diplomacy ln underdeveloped countries,Ania, we would like to proposeati'-nalon this subject be undertakenearly

completion date.

As you know, the Frosit^ent has asked Mr. Dodra to have

cnoric Foreign Felicy coordinate such policy ind action as may bo indicated in connection with itlvipin this field. Mr.as askedTunistsne up, as woll as for preparation of periodical (jrofcably fortnightly) irrent dev.?loiirents.

ha

policy decisions in thi3 m: pllation of whatvio<

significance of theircurn>,

evaluatedor larger context,oMo infemnccs aru to be drawn aa to Soviet intentions andhe probable extent to which these now policies can and willrrled, and the effectiveness they may heto have.

Suchwill require an Integrated analysis of

(a) Soviet capabilities to supply both capital equipswnt and military roods, as well a3 to absorb raw material and foodstuffs inports; (b) Soviet stratofiy in underdeveloped and former colenlalnd (c) the vulnerabilities of these areas to Soviettlirough ecoiv-pdc relationships. Clearly each one of thtso topicslend of political and "canonic analysis. It is therefore our opinion that the complexity and variety nf tho problen callrVInatori national estimate.

Will yi'u ba good en-ugh to arrange for the IAC ti consider this proposal at an early

Sincerely ycurs,

/s/ W. PARK AfHSTMKO,Parkr#

f Central

SEOfST

Original document.

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